Transcript Europe and Asia

Driving Global Change
How Asia and Europe lead
the global ICT market
Camille Mendler
Vice President
Yankee Group
NetEvents Singapore
19 May, 2006
© Copyright 2005, Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Agenda
•
•
•
•
Introduction
Comparing regional trends
Issues to address
Conclusions
© Copyright 2006, Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Page 2
Which of these Victorians was right?
“East is East and West is West and
never the twain shall meet”
Rudyard Kipling
The Ballad of East and West
“It is not the strongest of the species that
survives, nor the most intelligent that survives.
It is the one most adaptable to change.”
Charles Darwin
Origin of the Species
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Page 3
Inter-regional dependencies grow
Multinational companies: 2006 network expansion
81% have
network in
Asia
76% have
network in
Europe
Source: Yankee Group 2005 Global Network Strategies Survey, n=1,198 multinational companies globally
Regional samples: Western Europe=317, North America=370, Asia Pacific=311, Latin America=200
© Copyright 2006, Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Europe and Asia
Large Enterprise WAN Challenges
Key WAN Challenges
60%
47%
APAC
31%
30%
21%
43%
41%
Europe
19%
27%
27%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Remote & mobile access
Network capacity
Disaster recovery/business continuity
Containing costs
60%
70%
Network security
Network security key issue across both groups
Source: Yankee Group 2005 Global Network Strategies Survey
© Copyright 2006, Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Enterprise Priorities By Region
Key investment areas in 2006
Rank
North
America
Western
Europe
Asia
Pacific
Latin
America
1
Network
security
solutions
Network
security
solutions
Expanding
Business
Operations
VoIP/IP
Telephony
2
VoIP/IP
Telephony
VoIP/IP
Telephony
Implementing
business
application (SAP,
CRM, BI, etc.)
Improving Mobile
Communications
3
Improving
Storage & Data
Mobile Comms Back-up
Disaster
Recovery
Implementing
business
applications
(SAP, CRM, BI,
etc.)
Source: Yankee Group 2005 Global Network Strategies Survey
VOIP/IP Telephony not a priority across Asia Pac enterprises
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Europe and Asia
Disconnect on enterprise IP convergence
IP Network Convergence
IP Telephony Status
80%
38.3%
APAC
11%
60%
14.8%
21%
25%
46.9%
40%
7%
26%
17%
74.1%
Europe
20%
19.6%
79.1%
15.7%
5.1%
No plans
Budgeted plans
13%
14%
12%
9%
Europe
North America
Asia Pacific
0%
6.3%
North
America
11%
25%
Throughout entire network
Between major domestic and international sites
Between major domestic sites
Between major international sites
Deploying
Almost half of Asia Pacific enterprises have no immediate IPT plans
Source: Yankee Group 2005 Global Network Strategies Survey
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Europe and Asia
Household Penetration: Fixed Broadband Subscribers
90%
70%
Australia
China
Hong Kong
60%
India
Japan
50%
South Korea
Western Europe
Percent
80%
40%
•
30%
20%
•
10%
0%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
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© Copyright 2006, Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
2009
2010
•
Debate continues
on level of market
saturation for fixed
broadband
Selected Asia
Pacific markets
more mature in
consumer market
Battle for ARPU vs.
penetration
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Europe and Asia
Broadband Pricing Shifts Fuel Adoption
Business DSL ARPU
Consumer DSL ARPU
Australia
$70
Australia
$60
China
$250
China
$200
$30
Hong
Kong
India
Hong
Kong
India
$20
Japan
$50
$40
$300
$150
$100
Japan
$50
$10
$0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
•
•
•
•
South
Korea
Europe
$0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
South
Korea
Total
Europe
Downward pricing trend in consumer and residential markets.
China and India: deep cuts in business between 2002 and 2005
Australia: Aggressive cuts in residential broadband
Price remains the key broadband facilitator to boost uptake in several
Asian economies—with the exception of Korea, where the broadband
market has reached maturity
Source: Yankee Group Global Consumer Fixed-Line & Media and Business Fixed-Line Forecasts, Q1 2006
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Europe and Asia: Next Generation Broadband
Meeting the need for speed
EMEA
Asia Pacific
ADSL2+
VDSL/VDSL2
ADSL
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Massive shift away from ADSL. But Europe’s lack of investment
in fibre optic upgrades beginning to impede.
Currently <20% of European local loops are VDSL capable
Source: Yankee Group Global Broadband Forecast, Q1 2006
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Asia Pacific
Private Sector Investment in Greenfield Projects
•
•
Commitment to ICT development
linked to private sector
Examples where constitutional
reforms and interim measures
taken to facilitate telecom
liberalization
–
•
•
•
KOS joint operating schemes in
Indonesia, BTO schemes in
Thailand and BCC in Vietnam
Private telecom project
investments 2001-2004
Thailand
Indonesia
Since 2000, growth in private
infrastructure investment projects
Greenfield projects most common,
with exception of China, where
divestitures preferred
Companies pursuing infrastructure
projects changing
–
–
National large enterprises important
participants.
Eg: Reliance, Bharti in India and
Banpu in Thailand
© Copyright 2006, Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
India
China
$0
$2
Divestiture
$4
$6
$8
Greenfield project
Source: World Bank PPI Project Database and Yankee Group, 2006
•
•
Level of greenfield investment will
drive innovation in Asia Pacific
European infrastructure investment
trends more muted, focused to new EU
member nations
Page 11
Show me the money
Mobile revenues by region 2003 to 2010 ($ millions)
$800,000
$700,000
$600,000
Asia-Pacific
Europe
Africa
Middle East
North America
Latin America
$500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
$0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Differences in ARPU mask vast size of Asia Pacific market in
subscriber terms
Source: Yankee Group Global Mobile Premium Forecast, Q1 2006
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Asia and Europe
Mobile Data Revenues – 3G and beyond?
APAC
Europe
Enterprise
market
undeveloped
Infotainment
market less
developed
Consumer Messaging Share of Data Revenue
Infotainment Share of Data Revenue
Mobile Marketing/Advertising Share of Data Revenue
M-Commerce Share of Data Revenue
Enterprise Share of Data Revenue
Consumer Messaging Share of Data Revenue
Infotainment Share of Data Revenue
Mobile Marketing/Advertising Share of Data Revenue
M-Commerce Share of Data Revenue
Enterprise Share of Data Revenue
Source: Yankee Group Global Mobile Premium Forecast, Q1 2006
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Asia Pacific and Europe
All Eyes on Broadcast Mobile TV and IP TV
Asia: Mobile TV Deployments
Operator
Country Standard
KT Freetel
Korea
T-DMB
Operator
Country
Service
/ Platform
LG Telecom
Korea
T-DMB
France
Telecom
Ma Ligne TV
SK Telecom
Korea
S-DMB,
T-DMB
France,
(Neth, Spain,
UK)
Fastweb
Italy
Basic, etc
Free
France
Freebox
Telefonica
Spain,
(Czech,
Chile, Brazil)
Imagenio
Grupalia
Spain
Superbanda.
net
NTT DoCoMo
Japan
ISDB-T
KDDI
Japan
ISDB-T
Vodafone KK
Japan
ISDB-T
Beijing Jolon
China
T-DMB
Guangdong
Mobile Television
Media
China
T-DMB
Europe: IP TV Deployments
Homechoice UK
Big/base
pack
Fitness for purpose? “You can’t eat a sandwich through a straw”
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Global deployments
Mobile TV Standards
Standard
Spec
DVB-H
T-DMB
S-DMB
MediaFLO
IP
Datacasting
ISDB-T
Regions
Europe, US
Asia, Europe
Korea
US, Japan
Global
Japan
Channel
switching
5 to 8 seconds
2 to 3 seconds
2 to 3 seconds
1.5 seconds
N/A
N/A
Major
Backers
Nokia, TI,
Samsung,
Philips, Crown
Castle, Motorola,
Freescale
Korean govt.,
Samsung, LGE,
Toshiba, Frontier
Silicon
Samsung, LGE,
SK Telecom
Qualcomm,
KDDI
Ericsson,
Qualcomm,
IP Wireless
NEC, Fujitsu,
Sony,
Mitsubishi
Pros
•Piggyback DVBT sites
•Largest list of
backers
•Broadcasts over
DAB spectrum,
largely available
Europe and Asia
•First mover
advantage
•Spectrum
secured in US
•Minimal
infrastructure
investment for
US operators
•No spectrum
issues
•Positioned
as bridge to
broadcast
•Regulatory
consistency
•Easy setup in
Japan due to
existing
infrastructure
Cons
•Securing
spectrum
•User experience
•Bulky antenna
•Power
consumption
•Bulky antenna
•Line of sight
needs heavy
investment
•Power
consumption
•Finite satellite
lifespan and
repair issues
•Fewer
backers
outside US,
Japan
•Non TV like
experience
•Limited to
Japan
•Power
consumption
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Page 15
Issues to Address
Learning from each other
Europe
Asia Pacific
•
Mobile
•
– Operators begin to admit that 3G
investment has been disastrous
– Push to reduce opex
– Push to find/retain higher ARPU
subscribers (eg: enterprise)
– Success of Mobile TV still under
question – business
model/technology
– Leading mobile consumer
infotainment
•
Fixed Broadband
– Saturation in some residential
markets, future push in enterprise
– VOIP services now gaining strong
attention
– Leader in FTTH
•
Content
– No global content competitor
– Still dominated by US firms
Mobile
•
Fixed broadband
– Infrastructure issues begin to
impact deployment
– Push for IPTV may be muted
– VOIP everywhere
•
Content
– Wanadoo (France Telecom) only
strong European content provider –
but far behind US
Evolution is inevitable,
survival is not
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Any Questions?
Camille Mendler
Vice President
[email protected]
+44 207 307 1085
Charles Moon
Senior Analyst
[email protected]
+852 9047 2490
www.yankeegroup.com
© Copyright 2006, Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
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