Transcript Powerpoint
The Future of Broadband Mobility PTC’09 Tuesday Plenary – January 20, 2009 Honolulu, HI Ken Zita Network Dynamics Associates Arrival of the mobile Internet The arrival of very high speed and all-IP mobile networks is immanent. So-called 4G will transform markets and the mobile services paradigm worldwide. • The Promised Land is at hand – LTE field tests achieving “ultrabroadband” speeds of 160-250MB/s down, 50 MB/s up – Commercial shipments begin 2H09 – What is the route to mass market adoption? • How will a “mobile Internet” be different? – For the consumer experience? – For service definition? – For the competitive landscape? 1. What is the impact of broadband on mobile business strategy? The mobile value proposition remains tied to legacy “bandwidth economics” and is relatively untouched by the economics of the Internet. • Switched (closed) => packet (open) • Shift to IP allows service creation of content services independent of the access network • Gateways for media downloads vs. merely transporters of bits • If future market success is tied to application and content services, where will carriers place their bets? 2. How will mobile business models evolve with broadband? On-demand video, peer to peer communications, user-generated content, and application downloads will displace basic access services such as voice for new revenue growth. • Emerging financial models have many more moving parts, and far less revenue certainty – Subscriptions => to ad-hoc revenue events – Voice, messaging => on demand content – Recurring revenue => commissions, advertising, revenue shares – Per minute pricing => connectivity • Timing the transition of revenue composition • No “net neutrality” for mobile … today 3. Who will “own” what in the new broadband mobile ecosystem? How will the network/device/content/brand/web storefront armistice evolve as the mobile experience is gradually pried open by IP? • Can mobile operators preserve their closed ecosystems for content? – So far, incumbency has worked – (US) carriers control content, despite pledges to open • Apple and Nokia (and Google?) gambling on integrated, vertical services – Operating systems resurgent • MVNO for the new world – mobile content without the networks – Who will build the next Apple store? 4. Search Speed to the handset is exciting but mobile search needs to evolve, too. What is required to create “meaningful” mobile search and retain net-centric customers on the move? • Today mobile search is a drag • Contextualize with geography – Find stuff things that can only been ‘seen’ virtually through a computer network • Contextual with geography and local life – – – – Social information that “announces” in cyberspace How can a network (or device) anticipate my search? “Network push” => human-centered “demand pull” Geo-data and location tagging 5. Operational challenges Service delivery involves controlling content through middleware or finding a way to stay relevant as consumers download content from offnetwork sites. • Facing the on-net/off-net challenge • Technology – – – – IMS Mobile IPv6 What happens to Wimax? Do carriers need to be software companies? • Video hits the local mobile network – 250,000 U.S. cell sites with T-1 backhaul 6. Can Asian mobile SPs globalize? North Asia is streets ahead of the rest of the world in terms of mobile broadband adoption. But past attempts by Japanese and Korean operators to go global have failed. Why? • Big differences between U.S. and Japan mobile content strategies • Mobile Internet is a platform for delivering lifestyle services and knowledge uniquely appropriate to the local market – Diversity vs. mass market • Does network scale have a natural (or optimal) limit when value shifts to services that involve local market knowledge and customization? What does it mean, really, to create a “mobile Internet”? See: www.telecomwithvision.com