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Victoria Daigle
Faculty Sponsor: Marc Hutchison
May 2011
 China
has established itself as a regional
hegemon, creating a power-projecting
navy.
 In
April 2011, Chinese news sources
announced the creation of an aircraft
carrier.
• Sources propose the ship will be ready to set sail
later this year.
Varyag
China’s Aircraft Carrier
Does the U.S. need to fear China’s developing
naval program?
Power Cycle Theory contends that power transitions
within the International community are inevitable.
States follow a course of ascension of power, maturity
and dissension of power.
Agenda Setting/
Delegitimation
Coalition Building/
Deconcentration
Macrodecision/
Global War
Execution/
World Power
1430-1460
1460-1494
1494-1516
1516-1540 (Portugal)
1540-1560
1560-1580
1580-1609
1609-1640 (Netherlands)
1640-1660
1660-1688
1688-1714
1714-1740 (Britain)
1740-1763
1763-1792
1792-1815
1815-1850 (Britain II)
1850-1873
1873-1914
1914-1945
1945-1973 (United States)
Action Between Ships in the First Dutch War, 1652-1654
Abraham Willaerts




Agenda Setting: Britain claimed division of trade
with the United Provinces as motive for naval build
up.
Coalition Building: Britain had formed alliances
against the Dutch monopoly on trade.
Global War: The Anglo-Dutch Wars and its unsolved
conflicts brought both states into debt.
World Power: Britain experienced trade increases
and by 1715, Britain had surpassed the United
Provinces, achieving maritime supremacy.
British Dreadnought




Agenda Setting: German industrialization also led to
naval developments.
Coalition Building: Germany completed a detailed
naval program that would increase its presence in
the international community.
Global War: British increased naval production,
threatening Germany’s strategies. Britain calls for a
naval holiday, however Germany does not concede.
World Power: Political constraints and the outbreak
of World War I prevented Germany from becoming a
sea power.
Bombing at Pearl Harbor
December 7, 1941




Agenda Setting: Post WWI the U.S. retained its
position as a world power.
Coalition Building: The Washington Treaty and the
successive London Naval Treaty created arms
limitations, keeping other naval programs below
parity with the U.S. and Great Britain.
Global War: The attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941
broke the tension between the United States and
Japan into physical conflict.
World Power: At the close of WWII, the U.S. achieved
maritime supremacy.
 Historical
case studies show finite
periods of maritime supremacy.
 China’s
developing naval program
should not cause concern for the U.S.
• As part of the power cycle, the U.S. must
inevitably begin its descent from maritime
supremacy, just as other powers have done.