Transcript Will Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?

Will Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?
A Glimpse of Current and Future
Developments in Artificial Intelligence
Henry Kautz
Computer Science & Engineering
University of Washington
What is Artificial Intelligence?
• The study of the principles by which
natural or artificial machines
manipulate knowledge:
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how knowledge is acquired
how goals are generated and achieved
how concepts are formed
how collaboration is achieved
. . . Exactly what the computer
provides is the ability not to be rigid
and unthinking but, rather, to behave
conditionally. That is what it means
to apply knowledge to action: It
means to let the action taken reflect
knowledge of the situation, to be
sometimes this way, sometimes that,
as appropriate. . . .
-Allen Newell
• Classical AI
Disembodied Intelligence
• Intelligent Robotics
Embodied Intelligence
• “Cyborgs”
Cooperative Intelligence
Classical AI
• The principles of intelligence are separate
from any hardware / software / wetware
implementation
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logical reasoning
probabilistic reasoning
strategic reasoning
diagnostic reasoning
• Look for these principles by studying how
to perform tasks that require intelligence
• In general: divide and conquer!
Success Story: Medical Expert
Systems
• Mycin (1980)
– Expert level performance in diagnosis of blood
infections
• Today: 1,000’s of systems
– Everything from diagnosing cancer to designing
dentures
– Often outperform doctors in clinical trials
– Major hurdle today – non-expert part –
doctor/machine interaction
Success Story:
Chess
I could feel – I could
smell – a new kind
of intelligence
across the table
- Kasparov
•Examines 5 billion positions /
second
•Intelligent behavior emerges
from brute-force search
Is that all there is?
• The success stories of classical AI
are based on automating the step-bystep rules of logic or probability
theory
• But what about the importance of
intuition, hunches, lucky guesses in
natural intelligence?
Stochastic Inference
• Recent research on ways to solve
problems that are inherently too big
to solve by systematic search
• Idea: guess at a solution, then
randomly perturb it until it “fits”
• We can illustrate such an approach on
the N-Queens problem
Intelligent Robotics
• In the 1990’s there was a growing concern
that work in classical AI ignored crucial
scientific questions:
– How do we integrate the components of
intelligence (e.g. learning & planning)?
– How does perception interact with reasoning?
– How does the demand for real-time
performance in a complex, changing
environment affect the architecture of
intelligence?
• Provide a standard
problem where a wide
range of technologies
can be integrated and
examined
• By 2050, develop a team
of fully autonomous
humanoid robots that
can win against the
human world champion
team in soccer.
Robocup Insights
• Reactivity more important than optimal
decision making
• Complex group behavior (e.g. passing)
can be generated by surprisingly simple
rules
• Can trade mechanical engineering for
computing and vice-versa
Highlights of 2002
“Cyborgs”: Fusing Animal and
Machine Intelligence
• A different criticism of Classical AI is
that to understand intelligence we
must understand the brain, not just
tasks
• Neural Nets – model of computation
inspired by brain
– massive number of simple parallel
processing units
– trained rather than programmed
Neural Net Success Stories
• Voice and character recognition
• Face recognition
• Modeling neural systems of animals
UW Implantable Electronics Project
The compelling scientific reason for this research
is to correlate neuronal signaling and control
with environmental stimuli and behavior, to
better understand the neural substrates of
behavior
Today’s Cyborgs
Tritonia Diomedea
Manduca Sexta
Predictions
• Key future AI application: Helping
take care of our aging population
– robot nurses, rather than soccer players
• Key research future issue:
cooperative intelligence
– how the combination of a human and AI
system can be more than the sum of its
parts
… In sum, technology can be
controlled especially if it is
saturated with intelligence to watch
over how it goes, to keep accounts,
to prevent errors, and to provide
wisdom to each decision.
-Allen Newell
A Warning
Why Electric Sheep?
• Do Androids Dream of Electric
Sheep?
– Title of novel by Philip K. Dick upon
which the movie Bladerunner is based