Transcript The Future Is Ahead

The Future Lies Ahead:
“Soft Computing”
Copyright © 2003 Patrick McDermott
UC Berkeley
Extension
[email protected]
Human Smartest?
“Before [the 21st] century is over “human beings will
no longer be the most intelligent or capable type of entity
on the planet.”.
“Once a computer achieves a human level of
intelligence, it will necessarily soar past it.”
“There are more than enough new computing
technologies now being researched, including threedimensional chips, optical computing, crystalline
computing, DNA computing, and quantum computing,
to keep the law of accelerating returns [Moore’s Law]
going for a long time.”
Kurzweil, Ray, The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed
Human Intelligence, New York: Viking (0-670-88217-8), 1999.
Soft Computing
Evolutionary algorithms and genetic
programming
Neural science and neural network systems
Fuzzy set theory and fuzzy systems
Chaos theory and chaotic systems
Particle swarms and swarm intelligence
Kennedy, James & Russell C. Eberhart, Swarm Intelligence, San
Francisco: Morgan Kaufmann Publishers (1-55860-595-9), 2001.
Double E
• Emergence & Evolution
• The Emergence Paradox
– Lots of Dumb  Smart
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Swarm Intelligence
Nanotechnology
Evolutionary Programming
Data Mining
Berry, Michael J.A. & Gordon Linoff,
Data Mining Techniques: For Marketing, Sales, and Customer Support,
New York: Wiley Computer Publishing (0-471-17980-9), 1997.
Soft Computing is Hard I
1. Hard computing requires programs to
be written; soft computing can evolve its own
programs.
2. Hard computing uses two-valued logic;
soft computing can use multivalued or fuzzy
logic.
3. Hard computing is deterministic; soft
computing incorporates stochasticity.
4. Hard computing requires exact input
data; soft computing can deal with ambiguous
and noisy data.
…
Soft Computing is Hard II
5. Hard computing is strictly sequential;
soft computing allows parallel computations.
6. Hard computing produces precise
answers; soft computing can yield
approximate answers.
7. Hard computing takes more time to
develop; soft computing can yield results
more quickly.
8. Hard computing requires preprogrammed instructions; soft computing can
learn.
What Technologies
• You are now tasked by your company to
recommend what areas you should look into
for future developments
• What emerging technologies (if any) should
your business look into over the next one to
three years. Why?
• Plan
– What to do in short term, over next year
– What in long term, from there on out