Transcript Astronomy & the Process of Science

Astronomy & the
Process of
Science
What makes something scientific?
What makes Astronomy a science?
Why is Astrology not science?
Final Exam Essay Question!
 How does the process of science work?
 What are its typical steps?
 Illustrate your answer with multiple astronomical
examples of good science from the class.
Science?
Finding out about Nature…
NOT always right, sure, certainty!
More often? Confused! Wrong!
Richard Feynman
Hallmarks of Science
Seek explanations from natural causes
Not “super-natural”
example: You hear a sound at night in the
house…
Hallmarks of Science
Seek explanations from natural causes
Not “super-natural”
example: You hear a sound at night in the
house…
supernatural causes: ghosts!
Hallmarks of Science
Hallmarks of Science
Seek explanations from natural causes
Not “super-natural”
example: You hear a sound at night in the
house…
natural causes: earthquake, mice, pets, children,
house settling, sonic boom, thunder
Hallmarks of Science
Seek explanations from natural causes
“Nature is full of infinite causes that have
never occurred in experience.”
- Leonardo da Vinci
Hallmarks of Science
Progresses through creation & testing of
models of nature that explain observations
as simply as possible.
If it was a storm, do you see lightning?
If it was an earthquake, can you check news
for seismic activity?
Hallmarks of Science
Makes testable predictions
and…
Revises or abandons models if predictions
don’t agree with observations.
(cf. nature of science)
The process of science…
Observe “things” in nature
Ask Questions
Create Explanations
Develop Testable Hypotheses
Do the Experiment
Analyze results, anticipate errors
Draw Conclusions
Share with others for independent
confirmation
The process of science…
Observe “things” in nature
Patterns (seasons repeat every year)
Motions (planets move across the sky)
Events (eclipses!)
What isn’t there! (feeling like we are moving)
The process of science…
Ask Questions about what you observed
What? When? Where? How? … and WHY?
Research prior explanations & models
Requires imagination to tell what is important
The process of science…
Create Explanations (theories) that
account for what you have observed
These should be consistent
with what is already known
Use these to predict additional
observations, patterns, events, trends
The process of science…
Develop TESTABLE hypotheses
An “Educated Guess”
With a specific, narrow focus
Do the experiment
Feynman: Science is how
not to be fooled….
The process of science…
Analyze Experimental Results
Most likely result: you can’t tell for certain
if your hypothesis was right!
Next most likely: hypothesis is wrong!
And if you are right…?
.
The process of science…
Why aren’t you certain??
Always uncertainty in every measurement, and
in every result.
Experiment itself might not be able to tell.
The process of science…
 Develop Conclusions based on data
 Anticipate sources of error
 Refine or Discard Hypothesis
 Develop further tests & Repeat!
 Compare results w/ existing theories
The process of science…
 Share preliminary results
 Submit a paper to peer-reviewed journal
 Ask colleagues for input
 Present at conferences
 Discuss, Debate, Defend results
 ARGUE
The process of science…
Seek independent confirmation
then…
Revise Theories
Do new experiments
Develop new techniques, equipment,
Publish again
The process of science…
Astrology:
Personalities and actions of people can be
studied, and similarities between people
can be identified.
The Sun, Moon, Planets & stars and their
alignments and aspects are responsible.
Astrology
Consider your sunsign…
Aries (Ram) Mar. 21 - Apr. 19
Libra (Scales) Sep. 23 - Oct. 22
Taurus (Bull) Apr. 20 - May 20
Scorpio (Scorpion) Oct. 23 - Nov. 21
Gemini (Twins) May 21 - Jun. 20
Sagittarius (Archer) Nov. 22 - Dec. 21
Cancer (Crab) Jun. 21 - Jul. 22
Capricorn (Goat) Dec. 22 - Jan. 19
Leo (Lion) Jul. 23 - Aug. 22
Aquarius (Water Bearer) Jan. 20 - Feb. 18
Virgo (Maiden) Aug. 23 - Sep. 22
Pisces (Fish) Feb. 19 - Mar. 20
OK, so why isn’t Astrology a
“science”???
 Doesn’t astrology follow that process of science?
 Observe behavior trends
 Categorize into “signs”
 Create a theory – the planets and stars are
responsible
 Test – read your horoscope! “That’s ME!!”
 Publish
OK, so why isn’t Astrology a
“science”???
Consider the following:
“I’m an Aries. My astrological sign fits me
perfectly. My horoscope today said that I
would have a great day today and meet a
stranger, and I did! It was 100% right.”
From this one instance, could you predict
that on the next day it will also be right?
OK, so why isn’t Astrology a
“science”???
 No…. You cannot make a valid conclusion from
one instance where a theory does coincide with
a prediction.
 Science demands continual testing…
 And science requires that if the prediction
DOESN’T match the result even once, the
theory must be modified!
OK, so why isn’t Astrology a
“science”???
“I’m an Aries. My astrological sign fits me perfectly. My
horoscope today said that I would have a great day today and
meet a stranger, and I did! It was 100% right.”
But what about this person?
Astrology worked, didn’t it?
Doesn’t that count for something?
OK, so why isn’t Astrology a
“science”???
“I’m an Aries. My astrological sig fits me perfectly. My horoscope today
said that I would have a great day today and meet a stranger, and I
did! It was 100% right.”
In science, you must look for OTHER
possible causes before you decide one
particular theory is responsible!
Coincidence *does not mean* causality
OK, so why isn’t Astrology a
“science”???
“I’m an Aries. My astrological sig fits me perfectly. My horoscope today
said that I would have a great day today and meet a stranger, and I
did! It was 100% right.”
Other possibilities?
Did every horoscope match “perfectly”?
Did everything go “great” or just what you
chose to remember?
Do you ever meet strangers on days when
your horoscope doesn’t say you would?
OK, so why isn’t Astrology a
“science”???
“I’m an Aries. My astrological sig fits me perfectly. My horoscope today
said that I would have a great day today and meet a stranger, and I
did! It was 100% right.”
Other possibilities?
Did everyone born on the same day have the
same results?
Could your belief *bias* you to see what you
expect to see?
Examining Astrology Scientifically
Astrology maintains:
a) Personalities and actions of people can
be studied, and similarities between
people can be identified.
b) The planets and stars are responsible.
Examining Astrology Scientifically
Astrology:
Personalities and actions of people can be studied, and
similarities between people can be identified.
The planets and stars are responsible.
The first part can be true! Psychology!
The second part is not.
The process of science…
Consider the following…
“The planet is getting warmer and warmer.
Nature (volcanoes, the sun, cosmic rays)
is responsible, not people.”
The first part can be true.
The second part might not be entirely true!
Summary: Process of Science…
observation of data, developing questions about
trends, differences, & unique occurrences seen
research into previous work on similar questions
 building models & creating testable hypotheses
 designing, & gathering new data through,
experiments
 testing & refining the models based on the
new data collected
analysis of
Summary: Process of Science…
modifying or discarding incorrect hypotheses
 developing interconnected hypotheses into
theories
sharing results with peers for independent
evaluation and testing
publishing findings in peer-reviewed journals
so that the community of science can advance.
Science or Non-Science?
Could these be evaluated scientifically?
 The Yankees are the best baseball team of all time.
 Several kilometers below its surface, Jupiter’s moon
Europa has an ocean of liquid water
 My house is haunted by ghosts who make creaking
noises I hear every night.
 Dogs are smarter than cats.
Science or Non-Science?
Could these be evaluated scientifically?
 There is no liquid water on the surface of Mars today.
 Children born when Jupiter is in front of Taurus are
more likely to be musicians than other children.
 Aliens can manipulate time so that they can abduct
people and perform experiments on them without
people every realizing they were taken.
Science or Non-Science?
Could these be evaluated scientifically?
 Newton’s law of gravity works as well for explaining
orbits of planets around other stars as it does for
planets in our own solar system.
 God created the laws of motion that were discovered
by Newton.
 A huge fleet of alien spacecraft will land on Earth on
January 1, 2020.