Transcript Astronomy & the Process of Science

Astronomy & the
Process of Science
What makes something scientific?
What makes Astronomy a science?
Why is Astrology not science?
Science or Non-Science?
Could these be evaluated scientifically?
 The Yankees are the best baseball team of all time.
 Several kilometers below its surface, Jupiter’s moon
Europa has an ocean of liquid water
 My house is haunted by ghosts who make creaking
noises only I hear every night.
 Dogs are smarter than cats.
Hallmarks of Science
Seek explanations from natural causes
Progresses through creation and testing of
models of nature that explain observations
as simply as possible.
Makes testable predictions, and revises or
abandons models if predictions don’t
agree with observations.
Science or Non-Science?
 The Yankees are the best baseball team of all time. testable, but
depends upon definition of “Best” that is subjective
 Several kilometers below its surface, Jupiter’s moon
Europa has an ocean of liquid water
testable, but we don’t have technology yet
 My house is haunted by ghosts who make creaking
noises only I hear every night.
testable, but “supernatural” is not scientific
 Dogs are smarter than cats. testable, but depends upon
definition of “smarter” that is subjective
Science or Non-Science?
Could these be evaluated scientifically?
 There is no liquid water on the surface of Mars today.
 Children born when Jupiter is in front of Taurus are
more likely to be musicians than other children.
 Aliens can manipulate time so that they can abduct
people and perform experiments on them without
people every realizing they were taken.
Science or Non-Science?
Could these be evaluated scientifically?
 Newton’s law of gravity works as well for explaining
orbits of planets around other stars as it does for
planets in our own solar system.
 God created the laws of motion that were discovered
by Newton.
 A huge fleet of alien spacecraft will land on Earth on
January 1, 2020.
The process of science…
Observe “things” in nature
Patterns (seasons repeat every year)
Motions (planets move across the sky)
Events (eclipses!)
What isn’t there! (feeling like we are moving)
Ask Questions
What? When? Where? How? … and WHY?
Research prior explanations & models
Requires imagination to tell what is important
The process of science…
Create Explanations (Theories)
Consistent with what is already known
Able to predict events, observations, trends
Develop TESTABLE hypotheses
“Educated Guess”
Specific, narrow focus
Do the experiment
Feynman: How not to be fooled….
The Scientific Method
Analyze Results
Most likely result: you can’t tell
Next most likely: hypothesis is wrong!
And if you are right…?
Why aren’t you certain??
Always uncertainty in every measurement, and
in every result.
Experiment itself might not be able to tell.
The Scientific Method
 Develop Conclusions based on data
 Anticipate sources of error
 Refine or Discard Hypothesis
 Develop further tests & Repeat!
 Compare results w/ existing theories
 Share preliminary results
 Submit a paper to peer-reviewed journal
 Ask colleagues for input
 Present at conferences
 Discuss, Debate, Defend results
The Scientific Method
Seek independent confirmation
then…
Revise Theories
Do new experiments
Develop new techniques, equipment,
Publish again
Astrology
Consider your sunsign…
Aries (Ram) Mar. 21 - Apr. 19
Libra (Scales) Sep. 23 - Oct. 22
Taurus (Bull) Apr. 20 - May 20
Scorpio (Scorpion) Oct. 23 - Nov. 21
Gemini (Twins) May 21 - Jun. 20
Sagittarius (Archer) Nov. 22 - Dec. 21
Cancer (Crab) Jun. 21 - Jul. 22
Capricorn (Goat) Dec. 22 - Jan. 19
Leo (Lion) Jul. 23 - Aug. 22
Aquarius (Water Bearer) Jan. 20 - Feb. 18
Virgo (Maiden) Aug. 23 - Sep. 22
Pisces (Fish) Feb. 19 - Mar. 20
The process of science…
OK, so why isn’t Astrology a “science”???
Observe behavior trends
Categorize into “signs”
Create a theory – the planets and stars are
responsible
Test – read your horoscope! “That’s ME!!”
Publish
The process of science…
Consider the following:
“Here’s the pitch… and Bonds hits it high,
hits it deep…it’s outta here! Barry Bonds
is the best home run hitter in history.”
From this one pitch, could you predict that
on the next pitch he will hit a home run?
The process of science…
 No…. You cannot make a valid conclusion from
one instance where a theory does coincide with
a prediction.
 Science demands continual testing.
 Science requires that if the prediction DOESN’T
match the result, the theory must be modified!
The process of science…
Consider the following…
“The planet is getting warmer and warmer.
Volcanoes are responsible, not people.”
The first part can be true.
The second part might not be the whole
story!
The process of science…
Astrology:
Personalities and actions of people can be
studied, and similarities between people
can be identified.
The planets and stars are responsible.
The process of science…
Astrology:
Personalities and actions of people can be studied, and
similarities between people can be identified.
The planets and stars are responsible.
The first part can be true! Psychology!
The second part is not.
Summary:
The Process of Science…
observation of data, developing questions about
trends, differences, & unique occurrences seen
research into previous work on similar questions
 building models & creating testable hypotheses
 designing, & gathering new data through,
experiments
 testing & refining the models based on the
new data collected
analysis of
Summary:
The Process of Science…
modifying or discarding incorrect hypotheses
 developing interconnected hypotheses into
theories
sharing results with peers for independent
evaluation and testing
publishing findings in peer-reviewed journals
so that the community of science can advance.