Astronomy & the Process of Science
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Transcript Astronomy & the Process of Science
Astronomy & the
Process of
Science
What makes something scientific?
What makes Astronomy a science?
Why is Astrology not science?
Final Exam Essay Question!
How does the process of science work?
What are its typical steps?
Illustrate your answer with multiple astronomical
examples of good science from the class.
Science?
Finding out about Nature…
NOT always right, sure, certainty!
More often? Confused! Wrong!
Richard Feynman
Hallmarks of Science
Seek explanations from natural causes
Not “super-natural”
example: You hear a sound at night in the
house…
Hallmarks of Science
Seek explanations from natural causes
Not “super-natural”
example: You hear a sound at night in the
house…
supernatural causes: ghosts!
Hallmarks of Science
Hallmarks of Science
Seek explanations from natural causes
Not “super-natural”
example: You hear a sound at night in the
house…
natural causes: earthquake, mice, pets, children,
house settling, sonic boom, thunder
Hallmarks of Science
Seek explanations from natural causes
“Nature is full of infinite causes that have
never occurred in experience.”
- Leonardo da Vinci
Hallmarks of Science
Progresses through creation & testing of
models of nature that explain observations
as simply as possible.
If it was a storm, do you see lightning?
If it was an earthquake, can you check news
for seismic activity?
Hallmarks of Science
Makes testable predictions
and…
Revises or abandons models if predictions
don’t agree with observations.
(cf. nature of science)
The process of science…
Observe “things” in nature
Ask Questions
Create Explanations
Develop Testable Hypotheses
Do the Experiment
Analyze results, anticipate errors
Draw Conclusions
Share with others for independent
confirmation
The process of science…
Observe “things” in nature
Patterns (seasons repeat every year)
Motions (planets move across the sky)
Events (eclipses!)
What isn’t there! (feeling like we are moving)
The process of science…
Ask Questions about what you observed
What? When? Where? How? … and WHY?
Research prior explanations & models
Requires imagination to tell what is important
The process of science…
Create Explanations (theories) that
account for what you have observed
These should be consistent
with what is already known
Use these to predict additional
observations, patterns, events, trends
The process of science…
Develop TESTABLE hypotheses
An “Educated Guess”
With a specific, narrow focus
Do the experiment
Feynman: Science is how
not to be fooled….
The process of science…
Analyze Experimental Results
Most likely result: you can’t tell for certain
if your hypothesis was right!
Next most likely: hypothesis is wrong!
And if you are right…?
.
The process of science…
Why aren’t you certain??
Always uncertainty in every measurement, and
in every result.
Experiment itself might not be able to tell.
The process of science…
Develop Conclusions based on data
Anticipate sources of error
Refine or Discard Hypothesis
Develop further tests & Repeat!
Compare results w/ existing theories
The process of science…
Share preliminary results
Submit a paper to peer-reviewed journal
Ask colleagues for input
Present at conferences
Discuss, Debate, Defend results
ARGUE
The process of science…
Seek independent confirmation
then…
Revise Theories
Do new experiments
Develop new techniques, equipment,
Publish again
The process of science…
Astrology:
Personalities and actions of people can be
studied, and similarities between people
can be identified.
The Sun, Moon, Planets & stars and their
alignments and aspects are responsible.
Astrology
Consider your sunsign…
Aries (Ram) Mar. 21 - Apr. 19
Libra (Scales) Sep. 23 - Oct. 22
Taurus (Bull) Apr. 20 - May 20
Scorpio (Scorpion) Oct. 23 - Nov. 21
Gemini (Twins) May 21 - Jun. 20
Sagittarius (Archer) Nov. 22 - Dec. 21
Cancer (Crab) Jun. 21 - Jul. 22
Capricorn (Goat) Dec. 22 - Jan. 19
Leo (Lion) Jul. 23 - Aug. 22
Aquarius (Water Bearer) Jan. 20 - Feb. 18
Virgo (Maiden) Aug. 23 - Sep. 22
Pisces (Fish) Feb. 19 - Mar. 20
OK, so why isn’t Astrology a
“science”???
Doesn’t astrology follow that process of science?
Observe behavior trends
Categorize into “signs”
Create a theory – the planets and stars are
responsible
Test – read your horoscope! “That’s ME!!”
Publish
OK, so why isn’t Astrology a
“science”???
Consider the following:
“I’m an Aries. My astrological sign fits me
perfectly. My horoscope today said that I
would have a great day today and meet a
stranger, and I did! It was 100% right.”
From this one instance, could you predict
that on the next day it will also be right?
OK, so why isn’t Astrology a
“science”???
No…. You cannot make a valid conclusion from
one instance where a theory does coincide with
a prediction.
Science demands continual testing…
And science requires that if the prediction
DOESN’T match the result even once, the
theory must be modified!
OK, so why isn’t Astrology a
“science”???
“I’m an Aries. My astrological sign fits me perfectly. My
horoscope today said that I would have a great day today and
meet a stranger, and I did! It was 100% right.”
But what about this person?
Astrology worked, didn’t it?
Doesn’t that count for something?
OK, so why isn’t Astrology a
“science”???
“I’m an Aries. My astrological sig fits me perfectly. My horoscope today
said that I would have a great day today and meet a stranger, and I
did! It was 100% right.”
In science, you must look for OTHER
possible causes before you decide one
particular theory is responsible!
Coincidence *does not mean* causality
OK, so why isn’t Astrology a
“science”???
“I’m an Aries. My astrological sig fits me perfectly. My horoscope today
said that I would have a great day today and meet a stranger, and I
did! It was 100% right.”
Other possibilities?
Did every horoscope match “perfectly”?
Did everything go “great” or just what you
chose to remember?
Do you ever meet strangers on days when
your horoscope doesn’t say you would?
OK, so why isn’t Astrology a
“science”???
“I’m an Aries. My astrological sig fits me perfectly. My horoscope today
said that I would have a great day today and meet a stranger, and I
did! It was 100% right.”
Other possibilities?
Did everyone born on the same day have the
same results?
Could your belief *bias* you to see what you
expect to see?
Examining Astrology Scientifically
Astrology maintains:
a) Personalities and actions of people can
be studied, and similarities between
people can be identified.
b) The planets and stars are responsible.
Examining Astrology Scientifically
Astrology:
Personalities and actions of people can be studied, and
similarities between people can be identified.
The planets and stars are responsible.
The first part can be true! Psychology!
The second part is not.
The process of science…
Consider the following…
“The planet is getting warmer and warmer.
Nature (volcanoes, the sun, cosmic rays)
is responsible, not people.”
The first part can be true.
The second part might not be entirely true!
Summary: Process of Science…
observation of data, developing questions about
trends, differences, & unique occurrences seen
research into previous work on similar questions
building models & creating testable hypotheses
designing, & gathering new data through,
experiments
testing & refining the models based on the
new data collected
analysis of
Summary: Process of Science…
modifying or discarding incorrect hypotheses
developing interconnected hypotheses into
theories
sharing results with peers for independent
evaluation and testing
publishing findings in peer-reviewed journals
so that the community of science can advance.
Science or Non-Science?
Could these be evaluated scientifically?
“The Yankees are the best baseball team of all time.”
What criteria makes it “best”?
Are the criteria agreed by all who are asked?
Challenge of “subjective” evaluations!
“Dogs are smarter than cats.”
Science or Non-Science?
Could these be evaluated scientifically?
Several kilometers below its surface, Jupiter’s moon
Europa has an ocean of liquid water
Testable? Yes!
But not yet….
Still a hypothesis for now…
Science or Non-Science?
Could these be evaluated scientifically?
My house is haunted by ghosts who make creaking
noises I hear every night.
You could test for audible creaking noises.
And test for natural causes other than ghosts to
explain those noises.
Science or Non-Science?
Could these be evaluated scientifically?
There is no liquid water on the surface of Mars today.
Children born when Jupiter is in front of Taurus are
more likely to be musicians than other children.
Aliens can manipulate time so that they can abduct
people and perform experiments on them without
people every realizing they were taken.
Science or Non-Science?
Could these be evaluated scientifically?
Newton’s law of gravity works as well for explaining
orbits of planets around other stars as it does for
planets in our own solar system.
God created the laws of motion that were discovered
by Newton.
“Non-science” doesn’t mean
“Nonsense”
“God created the laws of motion that were discovered
by Newton.”
Religion often relies on faith and belief systems
outside of science. Can you put a number on how
much someone believes? And compare that to
someone else?