Transcript Strategic Approaches to Integrated Management of Land

WLI REGIONAL KNOWLEDGE EXCHANGE WORKSHOP
ON DECISION-SUPPORT TOOLS AND MODELS
23-27 SEPTEMBER, 2013, JERBA, TUNISIA
Strategic Approaches to Integrated Management
of Land, Water and Livelihoods along an Aridity
Gradient: Case of Central Tunisia (S2)
1. WLI objective
Goal : Improve the livelihoods of communities in areas
where droughts and climate change risks are prevalent.
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Relation to national policies and community
needs
work and reducing
1. Increasing the income per capita
poverty
2. Insuring a rational use of natural resources
3. reducing the effects of droughts and adaptation
to CC
lower semi arid
221 mm (1974-2001)
2 – 400C
ETP : Ab. 1500 mm
(hot and dry wind)
Water source : 1 well
2. Study site
S2 (Centre): Sidi
Bouzid - Zoghmar
Livestock / Rainfed
Agriculture
317 households – 2241 hab. (2002)
Livestock : 14 sheeps / household
S Agriculture : 2914 ha : cereals
(56%), Arboriculture (17%),
irrigated area (4%), cactus and
pasture (23%)
Net income : 4245 TD /year (2000),
only 71% from agriculture
Source : INRAT, 2005. Elaboration du plan de développement participatif de la
Communauté de Zoghmar
High increase of feeding costs for
livestock
High variation of the value of barley
production
3. THEMES
. Assessing future scenarios for GCC and
impacts on agriculture
. Water management in crop production
system
WATER PRODUCTIVITY ASSESSMENT
. Economic analysis
IMPACTS OF IMPROVED TECHNIQUES ON FARMERS’ INCOME
COST/BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF IMPROVED MANAGEMENT TECHNIQUES
4. PRILIMINARY RESULTS ABOUT CC IMPACTS - SIDI
BOUZID
- Use of CGCM model (Canada) for climate projections
- Use of CROPSYST model for yield projections
Past (Average)
Projections
Rainfall
(80-2000) : 240 mm
(2046-2065) : 233
(B1)/187 mm (A2)
(81-2100) : 199
(B1)/156 mm (A2)
Temperature
(80-2000) : 20.1°
2046-2065) :
21.6°(B1)/22.7° (A2)
(81-2100) : 22.3°
(B1)/25.1° (A2)
Barley Yield
(78-2012) : 7.6 Q/ha
(2046-65) : 3.6 (B1) –
2.8 Q/ha (A2)
-Agr. land to become marginally suitable or unsuitable to barley cropping
-Extreme events and improved techniques (fetilization) not considered
Source : A. Souissi, Prédictions du CC dans le Gouvernarat de Sidi Bouzid. PFE, ESA Kef, 2013
5. TECHNOLOGIES (TO BE) APPLIED IN ORDER TO
IMPROVE RESILIENCE TO DROUGHT AND CC
Field testing
Reference
Improved
LAND MANAGEMENT
Cactus : 1 ha / 1 farmer
Alley cropping Barley +
cactus : 3 ha / 3 farmers
Alley cropping Barley +
olive trees : 3 ha / 3 farmer
olive trees : 1 ha / 1
farmer
IRRIGATION
Rainfed barley : 1 ha / 1
farmer
barley : 2 ha / 1 farmer
Forage crops (alfaalfa): 1
ha / 1 farmer
6. ECONOMIC ANALYSIS : PROGRESS
1.
ANALYSIS OF FARM INCOME OF DIFFERENT PRODUCTION SYSTEMS
IMPACTS OF IMPROVED TECHNIQUES ON FARMERS’ INCOME
- Questionnaire prepared and tested
- Data collection (planned next october)
2. ECONOMIC LOSS OF NET BENEFIT DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE
- Use of the production function approach
-Data collection : Results of barley production (Q) models (theme 1),
barley prices (P), quantity of inputs (K), cost of inputs (w).
- Assessing the economic loss due to CC
3. ECONOMIC PROFITABILITY OF IMPROVED MANAGEMENT TECHNIQUES
Cost benefits analysis
Data collection : Results of bio-physical models to measure costs and
benefits during the lifetime (related to theme 2)
Measuring the main indicators (B/C ratio, IRR)
Outscaling and dissemination
of
Thank you
outputs to other areas in Tunisia and
WLI partner countries