Transcript Economic Realities of Rangeland Management in Tunisia, Dr

National Workshop on Water Resources and
Livelihoods in the Dry Areas Considering Climate
Uncertainty
Hammamet, Tunisia, 25-26 September 2014
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF AGRICULTURAL ADAPTATION TO
CLIMATE CHANGE IN ARID AREAS: THE CASE OF ZOGHMAR
(SIDI BOUZID)
HAMED DALY, CAROLINE KING
OUTLINE
•Introduction
•Objectives
• Methods and case study
•Results
•Discussion
•Conclusions
INTRODUCTION (1)
•The drier central and southern regions are expected to be the
most severely impacted by climate change (periodic droughts)
and rangeland degradation
•Agricultural land is expected to be unsuitable for cereal
cropping : The traditional barley-livestock system is expected be
reduced by 80% in drought years (GIZ 2007).
•However, combined livestock and crop net revenue is more
climate resilient in Africa (Seo, Mendelsohn et al., 2009)
Climate change and its impacts on barley
production : Case of Sidi Bouzid
•Annual rainfall (1999-2013) : 229 mm
•Barley grain yield (2002-2012) : 223 kg/ha (CRDA)
Suitability to barley
cropping
1991-2020
2040-2069
A1B SRES
93.1% (MS)
6.9% (NS)
A2 SRES
100% (MS)
93.1% (MS)
6.9% (NS)
100% (MS)
2070-2099
77.2% (MS)
93.1% (MS)
22.8% (NS)
6.9% (NS)
MS : Marginally suitable, NS : Non suitable - Source : World bank, 2011
Using other models : GCM= HadGEM2-ES/ Crop model= DSSAT
The barley yield may increase due to rainfall patterns change and interaction
with CO2 level and other weather parameters: T… (Annabi, preliminary results)
Need to Compare many GCM
INTRODUCTION (2)
•Decision makers need an evaluation of
different adaptation options
•Irrigation, olive tree plantation and plantation
of forage species
•Alternatives could give higher income for farmers
but lower social benefits
• Thus, there is a need for public action to
avoid negative externalities or increase public
benefit
Objectives
- To assess the profitability of these
interventions from a private and social
perspective
- To analyze the contribution of adaptation
techniques to improving farmers’ income
Method : Cost-benefit analysis (CBA)
•A useful tool to analyse individual options, especially
those publicly-funded producing both private and public
Please insert a picture
benefits.
• Justify investments for different interventions
that represents your
•Allows comparisons between landwork
use options
•May expand to include the range of benefits & costs
•‘With’ and ‘without’ interventions comparisons
Stages for conducting CBA
a)
b)
c)
d)
Identify the improved alternative impacts
Quantify impacts
Estimate costs and benefits
Please insert a picture
Predict the magnitude of annualthat
incremental
representscosts
your&
benefits over the life span of the alternative
work
e) Discounting
f) Measure of main indicators
g) Sensitivity analysis to consider risks and uncertainties.
Case study site : Zoghmar (Sidi Bouzid)
• Agricultural surface area : 2400 ha
• Sheep livestock production integrated with
pasture and cereal production
• Surface area/household : 14.7 ha
• Number of ewe/household : 26
• Rainfall : 240 mm (1980-2000)
• Frequent drought risk : 6 years in a decade
• Net income per household (2013) : 5616 TD/year,
mainly from animal production, 28% external to
agriculture (INRAT, 2013 survey).
 Annual increase : 2.2% (2000-2013)
 compared to 6.1% for Tunisia
 Very high poverty rate : 60% compared to 15.5%
for Tunisia (2010) (INS, 2012)
Land uses in 2013
100%
90%
80%
6%
70%
60%
Irrigated
forages
Olive trees
28%
Cactus
plantation
50%
40%
Pasture
30%
20%
44%
Cereals
10%
0%
Source: INRAT Survey, 2013
19%
Case study site : Land use changes in Zoghmar
•
•
•
•
Decrease of cereal cropping from 85% of the surface area in 1991 to 44% in 2013
Increase of olive tree plantation form 10% to 19% in the same period
Increase of cactus plantation (6% whole plantation +11% in alley)
Increase of livestock from 20 ewes per farm in 1991 to 26 in 2013
90%
80%
70%
Cereals
60%
Pasture
50%
Cactus plantation
40%
Olive trees
30%
Irrigated forages
20%
Vegetables
10%
0%
1991
2002
2013
Source: CRDA 1991; INRAT 2005; INRAT Survey, 2013
a. Adaptation techniques in zoghmar-Sidi
Bouzid area
Current land use
Alternatives
Rangeland
Cactus
Cactus in alley
Barley with cactus in alley cropping
Cactus
Barley with cactus in alley cropping
Olive tree plantation
Irrigated barley
Irrigated olive trees
Rainfed barley
Irrigated barley
b1. Identification of costs and benefits
COSTS CONSIDERED
BENEFITS CONSIDERED
1. FARMER
COST OF PLANTATION
COST OF EMPLOYED LABOR
COST OF WATER
LOSS OF CROPPED AREA
ON SITE
INCREASED AGRICULTURAL
PRODUCTION
2. NATIONAL
SOCIETY
COST OF PLANTATION
COST OF LABOR
FULL COST OF WATER
(OPPORTUNITY COST + COST OF
WATER DEGRADATION)
LOSS OF CROPPED AREA
ON SITE AND OFF SITE
+
. REDUCED EROSION
3. GLOBAL
COMMUNITY
ON SITE AND OFF SITE
+
. CARBON SEQUESTRATION
c. Valuation of costs and benefits
•Survey for valuation of private costs and benefits
of different land uses
• Data about yield of barley and olive trees (CRDA)
•Market price for Private valuation
•Real price / opportunity cost of labor/ Full Cost of water
for Social valuation
RESULTS : COMPARISON BETWEEN DIFFERENT
ALTERNATIVE LAND USES IN RANGELANDS : CASE OF
ZOGHMAR
Net present value (NPV) (8%, 20 years) in TND/ha - 2013
Non action : Rangelands
Alternative land uses
Farmer’s perspective
National perspective
Cactus
1220
726
Cactus in alley + pasture
1669
800
Cactus in alley+ barley
1913
366
RESULTS : COMPARISON BETWEEN DIFFERENT
ALTERNATIVE LAND USES IN RANGELANDS : CASE OF
ZOGHMAR
Non action : Rainfed barley
NPV (8%, 20 years) in TND/ha - 2013
Alternative land uses
Farmer’s
perspective
Social perspective
977
943
Cactus in alley
1426
1017
Cactus in alley cropping with barley
1669
583
Irrigated barley
6104
3994
Cactus
RESULTS : PROFITABILITY OF OLIVE TREES PLANTATION
AT FARMER, NATIONAL SOCIETY AND GLOBAL
COMMUNITY PERSPECTIVE : CASE OF ZOGHMAR
NPV (8%, 60 years) in TND/ha - 2013
Without
intervention
Pasture
NPV at farmer
NPV for national
NPV at global
perspective (DT/ha) society (DT/ha)
perspective (DT/ha)
-2950
-2540
-1925
Rainfed barely
-3625
-2313
Irrigated barley
2200
982
-1698
1776
RESULTS : IMPACT OF CACTUS FEEDING ON FARMER’
INCOME
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Sheep breeding (no
cactus feeding)
Integrated Sheep
breeding + cactus
Gross margin/household (TND/year)
DISCUSSION
- A Sensitivity analysis is needed to examine the effects of
risks and uncertainties:
• Yields (alley cropping)
• Water for irrigation
•Water erosion, water degradation
- There is a need to improve knowledge, through models
and tools, about the effects of climate change on
agricultural production and environmental degradation
CONCLUSIONS
•Plantation of cactus in alley is the best alternative
when integrated to sheep breeding.
•In economic perspective, olive trees plantation in
rainfed area should not be conducted
•Olive tree plantation in irrigated area is profitable at private
and social perspective
•This analysis confirms that integrated livestock, crop and
forage net income is more climate resilient.
•Irrigation constitutes the best adaptation alternative at farm
perspective, but better information is needed to assess the cost
of water degradation.
Thank you for your attention