Transcript Blending research with policy in rainfed, irrigated and

6th Regional Coordination Meeting
Amman - November 11-12, 2014
Water Management Strategies
and potential impacts on Livelihoods in
(TUNISIA)
WLI Goal and national policy
Overall Goal: to improve the livelihoods of rural households and communities in
areas where water scarcity, land degradation, and associated problems are prevalent.
Intended Outputs:
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1. Assessment of climate change effects on agro-systems
2. Management tools for Integrated water and
land
use
that
represents
your
3. Enhanced knowledge, skills and qualifications for key
work
stakeholders.
4. Tools for assessment of rural livelihoods improvements
National Policy Objectives in Tunisia :
1. Increasing the income per capita and reducing poverty
2. Enhancing food self-sufficiency
3. Water saving and rational use of natural resources
Improvement of water management in rangeland and cropbased production systems through field testing, adaptation
and monitoring effects of water harvesting, irrigation
management and using saline water to improve crop and
livestock productivity.
Quantification of benefits from improved interventions and
adaptation measures in terms of water savings and
enhanced benefit/cost ratio
Assess future scenarios for Global Climate Change (GCC) and
impacts on water resources, agriculture, and livelihoods for
consideration by decision-makers
Capacity building for implementation, analysis and
assessment of all adaptation measures
Outscaling and dissemination of outputs to other areas in
Tunisia and WLI partnering countries
Outscaling and
Research
themes
Capacity
building
ASSESS FUTURE SCENARIOS
FOR GCC AND IMPACTS ON
WATER RESOURCES,
AGRICULTURE, AND
LIVELIHOODS
Post doc placement in US
Laboratories
Workshops and seminars
Trainings
Publications
Dissemination
WATER MANAGEMENT IN
RANGELANDS AND CROP
PRODUCTION SYSTEMS
QUANTIFICATION OF
BENEFITS FROM IMPROVED
INTERVENTIONS AND
ADAPTATION MEASURES
Description of the 3 sites
Site
S1 : North
S2 : Centre
S3 : South
Surface area
50km x 50 km
740,000 ha
150,000 ha
Rainfall
450 mm
240 mm (80-2000)
Range 150-230 mm
Targeted
Agrosystem
Durum wheat,
Citrus
Barley
Livestock
Cactus
Small irrigation
schemes (Fruit
trees, Vegetables)
Water harvesting
Population
410,000 inhab.
50,000 inhabitants
Benchmark site
surface area
2914 ha
Population
2241 hab. (2002)
Pilot sites
8 (1-2 ha each)
5 (3-10 ha)
3
3
2
2
1
1
Mechanisms for Community Inclusion
Site Advisory Group Members
Associations
indicator)
• PleaseBenefitted
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a picture
CRDA Médenine
Farmers,
NGOs
here
CRDA Sidi Bouzid
Farmers, NGO
CRDA Nabeul
Farmers
CTA Béni Khalled
Farmers
Understanding Water Management:
Basin-level
30
T(°C)
1911-1940
mean1925
1941-1970
mean1955
mean1985
1971-2000
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
months
10
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Distribution characteristics of Temperature have been determined for
the northern site using historical data (1911-2000), focus on January.
14
T(°C)
12
Q-Q plot
vs 1911-1940
10
jan1971-2000
jan1941-70
T(°C)
8
8
10
12
14
Quintile to quintile plot for the coldest month (January), showing a
steady increase in temperature over the last century. Distribution
statistics will be used for correcting ARPRGE forecasts of CC.
Case study of Wadi Rmel , nothern Tunisia. Work on rainfall-runoff simulation using two
rainfall-runoff models GR2M and SWAT
Precipitation series
Calibration and validation of SWAT model for Oued Rmel watershed
Frequence of exceedence
1.0
0.8
2011
0.6
2012
0.4
2013
0.2
0.0
0
2000
Irrigation m3/ha
4000
6000
8000
I. requierement =5000m3/ha
ETc = 7600 m3/ha
Canal-water uptake by farmers in the citrus growing area of
Benikhalled (Nabeul governorate), showing an important shift
in the frequency of exceedence over 2013.
Climate change and its impacts on barley
production : Case of Sidi Bouzid
GCM= HadGEM2-ES/ Crop model= DSSAT
Growing season rainfall
evolution (mm)
2020-2030
RCP4.5
-6%
RCP8.5
+11%
2050-2060
-13%
-2%
2080-2090
-37%
•Barley grain yield (2002-2013) : 277 kg/ha (observed)
Barley yield evolution
-26%
2021-2029
RCP4.5
+58%
RCP8.5
+32%
2051-2059
+24%
-22%
2080-2090
-39%
-3%
(Annabi priliminary results)
•Annual rainfall (1999-2013) : 229 mm
•Average growing season rainfall: 160 mm (observed)
- Various effect of rainfall patterns change with interaction with CO2 level
increase (RCP4.5<RCP8.5) and with other weather parameters: T (+2-4°C)…;
- Uncertainties  Need to Compare several GCMs ongoing with MRI-CGCM, IPSL)
Improving Water and Land Management:
Field Level
Fruits number/tree
300
LSD(5%)=31.6
250
200
150
100
50
0
ETc
.75(ETc)
.5(ETc)
Farm's
Relationship between water deficits and orange production in dry
environments. Experiment conducted in a drip irrigated orchards,
situated in Megarine (governorate of Medenine).
Aquacrop model performance for barley
AquaCrop model / simulation of the biomass / wheat /
14
FM
WP
DI
WP
Carrot,
38%
Carrot, 25%
Potato,
45%
Potato, 24%
Green bean, 30-33% Green bean, 30-32%
12
LSD (5%)
Carrot, 2.077
Potato, 1.277
Green bean Luz, 2.114
Geen bean L, 1.997
8
6
4
2
Potato
2013-2014
Carrot
Green bean (Luz
di otono)
Treatments
FM
DI70
SWB100
FM
DI70
SWB100
FM
DI70
SWB100
FM
DI70
0
SWB100
IWP (kg/m3)
10
Green bean
(Local)
Yield components
Grain yield (kg/ha)
2500
2000
Grain yield of barley (kg/ha)
under different scenarios
adaptation tested
1500
1000
500
0
Barley
Durum wheat Barley with cactus Barley with olives
as alleys (alley
tree as alleys
cropping)
(alley cropping)
Mixture
barley/vetch
Crop
Rainfed condition
Irrigation condition
Biological yield (kg/ha)
6000
5000
4000
Biological yield of barley (kg/ha)
under different scenarios
adaptation tested
3000
2000
1000
0
Barley
Durum wheat
Barley with cactus Barley with olives
as alleys (alley
tree as alleys
cropping)
(alley cropping)
Crop
Rainfed condition
Irrigation condition
Mixture
barley/vetch
g-WUE (kg/mm/ha)
WUE
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Grain-WUE of barley
under different scenarios
adaptation tested
Barley
Durum wheat
Barley with cactus Barley with olives
as alleys (alley tree as alleys (alley
cropping)
cropping)
Mixture
barley/vetch
Crop
b-WUE (kg/mm/ha)
Rainfed condition
Supplemental irrigation condition
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Biological-WUE of barley
under different
Scenarios adaptation tested
Barley
Durum wheat
Barley with cactus Barley with olives
as alleys (alley tree as alleys (alley
cropping)
cropping)
Mixture
barley/vetch
Crop
Rainfed condition
Supplemental irrigation condition
Yield components
6
14
5
12
Biological yield (kg/ha)
Grain yield (kg/ha)
Under rainfed condition
4
3
2
1
0
Barley
Barley with cactus as
alleys (alley cropping)
CA
10
8
6
4
2
0
Durum wheat
Barley
Barley with cactus as
alleys (alley cropping)
CA
CV
Durum wheat
CV
6.6
18
6.4
16
Biological yield (kg/ha)
Grain yield (kg/ha)
Under Supplemental irrigation
6.2
6
5.8
5.6
5.4
14
12
10
8
6
4
5.2
2
5
0
Barley
Durum wheat
Barley
Crops
CA
CV
CA
Crops
Durum wheat
CV
WUE
6
14
5
12
b-WUE (kg/mm/ha)
g-WUE (kg/mm/ha)
Under rainfed condition
4
3
2
1
0
Barley
Barley with cactus as
alleys (alley cropping)
CA
10
8
6
4
2
0
Durum wheat
Barley
Barley with cactus as
alleys (alley cropping)
CV
CA
Durum wheat
CV
Under Supplemental irrigation
6.6
b-WUE (kg/mm/ha)
g-WUE (kg/mm/ha)
6.4
6.2
6
5.8
5.6
5.4
5.2
5
Barley
Durum wheat
Crops
CA
CV
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Barley
Crops
CA
Durum wheat
CV
Understanding and improving Livelihoods : Cost benefit
analysis of agricultural adaptation options to climate
change
RESULTS : COMPARISON BETWEEN DIFFERENT
ALTERNATIVE LAND USES IN RANGELANDS : CASE OF
ZOGHMAR
Net present value (NPV) (8%, 20 years) in TND/ha - 2013
Non intervention : Rangelands
Alternative land uses
Farmer’s perspective
National perspective
Cactus
1220
726
Cactus in alley + pasture
1669
800
Cactus in alley+ barley
1913
366
This analysis confirms that integrated livestock, crop
and forage net income is more climate resilient.
RESULTS : COMPARISON BETWEEN DIFFERENT
ALTERNATIVE LAND USES IN RANGELANDS : CASE OF
ZOGHMAR
Non intervention : Rainfed barley
NPV (8%, 20 years) in TND/ha - 2013
8000
Cactus
6000
Cactus in alley
4000
Cactus in alley cropping
with barley
2000
0
Farmer’s perspective
Social perspective
•Irrigation constitutes the best
adaptation alternative at farm
perspective, but better information
is needed to assess the cost of
water degradation.
Irrigated barley
RESULTS : IMPACT OF CACTUS FEEDING ON FARMER’
INCOME
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Sheep breeding (no
cactus feeding)
Integrated Sheep
breeding + cactus
Gross margin/household (TND/year)
RESULTS : PROFITABILITY OF OLIVE TREES PLANTATION AT
FARMER, NATIONAL SOCIETY AND GLOBAL COMMUNITY
PERSPECTIVE : CASE OF ZOGHMAR
NPV (8%, 60 years) in TND/ha - 2013
3000
2000
Olive tree plantation in
rangelands
1000
0
-1000
-2000
-3000
-4000
Farmer
perspective
National
perspective
Global
perspective
Conversion of barley to
olive tree plantation
Conversion of barley to
olive tree plantation in
irrigated areas
Case study 2 : Water harvesting techniques investment at farm level
IRR %
Observed
24%
23%
Private perspective
Social perspective
Net Present Value (30 years), WHT investment
NPV (DT)
Discount rate
12%
10%
8%
Costs + 10 % Benefits - 20 %
Private perspective
2491
3615
5231
2340
1691
Social perspective
2073
3027
4402
1910
1333
Sustainable Livelihoods Approach (SLA)
List of indicators by type of livelihood capital
Natural capital
Financial capital
Physical capital
Human capital
Social capital
Livestock
Farm seize
Land quality
Water quality
Olive trees
Agriculture
income
Livestock income
Off-farm income
Jessour
Ownership of
plowing means
Education,
Household seize
Age
Households
expenditure
Member of
association,
Distance to nearest
hospital ,
Certificate of
Ownership,
SONEDE network
Naturel capital
100
80
60
Social capital
40
Financial capital
20
0
Human capital
Physical capital
Total watershed
Social capital is the most dominating capital followed by physical capital.
Financial capital seems to be not representative due to the low agriculture and
livestock incomes.
Projections indicate that the livelihood assets will be changed during 2013-2030
period : Physical, human and social capital will be improved with very little
increment in financial capital. Natural capital will slowly decrease.
Summary of Enhanced Knowledge, Skills and
Qualifications at the Benchmark Site
POST DOC PLACEMENTS IN US LABS
Candidate
M. Annabi
F. Mokh
N. Sghaier
Organization
INRAT
IRA
INAT
Hosting Lab
Vegetable and Forage Crop
Research Unit (USDA-ARS,
Prosser, WA)
Conservation and
Production Research
Laboratory (USDAARS, Bushland, Texas)
USDA-ARS
Hydrology and
Remote Sensing
Laboratory
(Beltsville, MD)
Supervisors
Dr Ashok Alva
Dr. Paul D. Colaizzi
Dr .Martha
Anderson
Period
Jan-Mar14; Jul-Sep14
Jun-Nov14
Sept14-Feb15
Topic
Estimating the effect of the
future climate change on
durum wheat productivity in
Northern Tunisia and the
potential benefits of
conservation agricultural
and sowing date advancing
Irrigation
management and
crop water modeling
Performance
evaluation of ALEXI
Evapotranspiration
model in Northern
Tunisia
TRAININGS
• Aquacrop Training in partnership with FAO; WLI Modeling
Thematic Group, Cairo (August 24-28, 2014)
• Regional Training Workshop on Cost Benefit Analysis,
Thematic Group: Economics of Natural Resources
Management, Amman - Jordan (June 24-25, 2014)
• Catalyzing Change through the Impact Pathway and Theories
of Change; WLI Socio-Economic Thematic Group, Amman
(April 16-17, 2014)
DEGREES
MSc theses, PhD theses, etc.
Challenges, Needs and Opportunities
SYNERGIES
Themes/Actions
Geographical/Ecozones
Scale (up/outscaling)
INTERNATIONAL
CONVNETIONS
NATIONAL
STRATEGIES
REGIONAL
PROJECTS
LOCAL
PROJECTS
CRP
WLI
WLI
FUTURE PROSPECTS
Modelling:
• CC model downscaling
• Adaptation, calibration and validation of used models
Monitoring
• More advanced field monitoring equipments and methods
• Use of RS techniques for spatial analysis
Practices
• Test the various practices: irrigation scheduling, deficit, irrigation,
WH-SI, intercropping, conservation agriculture, etc.
• Try other innovative practices
Economic and social studies
• Social acceptance and farmer willingness
• Economic evaluation of adaptation options
• Assessing the impacts on farmer incomes and livelihood
• Water resources allocation
Capacity building, exchanges and networking
• Post doc and researchers exchanges in both directions
• Networking with US Labs and Univ.
• Provide advanced trainings on specific topics
Dissemination and Outreach
• International IF journal papers
• Books
• Interactive decision making tools (portals)
• Extension tools and materials
Draft Workplan for 2015: Accelerated Schedule
2014
11
Improve Water Mgt Strategies
Monitoring / Modeling
Reporting
Publication
Improve Livelihoods
Data analysis & reporting
Publication
Exchange Knowledge
Stakeholder workshops/trainings
Publication
Quarterly & Annual Reporting
Monitoring WLI Indicators
2015
12
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2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Thank you
National
Research
Teams
IRA
INRAT
INAT
Bio-physical
Component
Houcine Khatteli
Mohamed Ouessar
Kamel Nagaz
Mongi Ben Zaied
Fathia El Mokh
Amal Hachani
Abderrahmen Sghaier
Mohamed Ben Hammouda
Mohamed Annabi
Hatem Cheik Mhamed
Salah Ben Youssef
Netij Ben Mechlia
Hammadi Habaieb
Moncef Masmoudi
Nabil Sghaier
Asma Lasram
Nawal Temani Zayani
Socioeconomic
Component
Mongi Sghaier
Mohamed Abdeladhim
Riadh Bechir
Hamed Daly-Hassen
Najoua Esaaidi, Engineer
Maher Bel Haj Kacem,
Engineer student
US Labs
Local
stakeholders
Vegetable and Forage
Crops Production
Research Lab, Prosser,
Washington
Soil and Water
Management Research
Lab, Bushland, Texas
Hydrology and
Remote Sensing Lab,
Beltsville, Maryland
(in partnership with
NASA on MENA WISP
Project)
Dr Ashok Alva
Dr. Paul D. Colaizzi
Dr Steve Evett
Dr .Martha Anderson
South
Centre
North
CRDA Médenine
Farmers
Local NGOs
CRDA Sidi Bouzid
Farmers
CTA Béni Khalled
GDA
Famers