Transcript apv-methodological approach WB project HP-water

Security implications of future water use
in Western Balkans: challenge of
hydropower development
Project methodological approach
Anita Pirc Velkavrh, EEA
1.
EEA Strategic futures group experience
2.
Difference between scenarios and vision
(types of future – tools –scenarios- future thinking process-visions)
3.
How were developed scenarios for WB?
4.
How was developed vision for WB?
5.
Methodological approach to forward-looking assessment of water security in WB
by using scenarios, some projections and vision

Overall concept

Looking from the present to the future

Looking from the future to the present

Assessing security implications related to environment (threats, risks, security&environment)
1. EEA STRATEGIC FUTURES GROUP
Knowladge base for forward-looking information and services /FLIS/
Information system with forward-looking components
Platform of IT web based services for sharing information, reporting and interactive communciation
Coopeartion with countires and other institutions
Eionet network establishment and enhancment (NRC FLIS)
OSCE, UNEP, ASEF, COST, regional conventions (Danube)
Forward-looking assessments
◊
European scenarios (PRELUDE)
◊
Environmental integrated assessments – reports
EU State of environment and outlook report
2010: Part A, Global megatrends
2015
EEA Land use scenarios-PRELUDE: scale of governance and markets
Story and simulation approach (SaS)
What was done for WB region
1. some FL assessments (2006-2012)
2. Scenarios on water availability in 2060
- scenario building: explorative, participatory workshop:
Opportunities for development in the Western Balkans in the context of Climate Change impacts
and Water Scarcity, Belgrade Serbia 24-26 October 2011
- scenarios refinement (water use, energy supply, security implications):
participatory workshop :
Security implications of future water use in Western Balkans: challenge of hydropower
development, Ljubljana Slovenia 11-12 February 2013
3. Vision on hydropower development
- vision building: participatory workshop, using web based tool for vision
building:
Security implications of future water use in Western Balkans: challenge of hydropower
development, Ljubljana Slovenia 11-12 February 2013
5
2. DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SCENARIOS AND VISION
Victoria University, Australia
How to deal with the future?
Zureck and Henrichs, 2007
Tools to deal with the future
Scenarios
… a plausible description of how the future
may unfold based on a coherent and
internally consistent set of assumptions
about key relationships and driving forces
(STEEP).
Note that scenarios are neither predictions nor forecasts.
It is better to be vaguely right than exactly wrong.
Visions building
Visioning is a technique that is used to support a group of stakeholders in
developing a shared vision of the future.
The goal of visioning is to develop written and visualised statements of a
community’s long term goals and strategic objectives
State A (Where are we now?). The outcomes of the visioning workshop describe
State B (Where do we want to be?)
Through stakeholder workshops to provide the basis for a ‘road-mapping’ exercise,
and is an attempt to generate a shared picture of a desirable future and way
forward.
scenarios
Vision
3. How were built scenarios for WB?
Scenarios on water availability in 2060
- scenario building: explorative, participatory workshop:
Opportunities for development in the Western Balkans in the context of Climate Change impacts
and Water Scarcity, Belgrade Serbia 24-26 October 2011
- scenarios refinement (water use, energy supply, security implications):
participatory workshop :
Security implications of future water use in Western Balkans: challenge of hydropower
development, Ljubljana Slovenia 11-12 February 2013
14
WHERE WE ARE IN SCENARIO PROCESS?
Scenarios building workshop:
"Opportunities for development in the Western Balkans in the context of
Climate Change impacts and Water Scarcity”
Belgrade on 24-26 October 2011
Worksop question:
What are the options for developments in western Balkan region to hedge risks
associated with climate change and water availability?
Outcomes:
1. Scenarios on impact of climate change to water availability in WB until 2060
2. Key risks which may occur in 4 scenarios
3. Pathways to some goals to hedge the risks
16
SCENARIO BUILDING PROCESS
- explorative, intuitive
Define scenario question
Identify driving forces
S
Identify most important
uncertainties
Implications and paths,
Develop plausible scenarios warning indicators
S1
S2
S3
S4
T
E
E
P
L
1.SCENARIO QUESTION
18
Group 1
19
Group 2
20
Group 3
21
2. Most important and most uncertain driving forces in WB:
•
Climate change impacts (high-low) - preselected

one selected at the workshop:
• Land use changes (favourable- unfavourable)
• Economic growth (investment, recovery)
• Real resources cost and affordability (availability)
22
23
24
3. Selected scenarios axes and developed scenarios
Sustainable
SFRJ (socialistic federative Republic
of Yugoslavia)
Economic growth
Equality
Quite high quality of life
Good knowledge base
Good environment management
Integrated water management, strong
policies and cross border agreement,
renewable energy dominating
Yes, we can, Technogarden in Balkan
Green and rich and can tackle
Intensive resource use, controlled,
technology driven
Ground water drop, import of water from
Russia, energy dependant on imports
Climate change impacts
high
low
Endless horror
Horror without end
poverty, hopeless, run to the hills,
ecosystems recovery
drinking water deficit, scarcity in general,
water use in agriculture mainly
poverty, hopeless, run to the hills, the day
after tomorrow., deteriorated environment
,spiral development to negative
high water scarcity, extreme events not
managed leading to further deterioration of
economy
Un-sustainable
25
26
4. How was developed vision for WB ?
Vision on hydropower development 2030
- participatory workshop, using web based tool for vision building:
Security implications of future water use in Western Balkans: challenge of hydropower
development, Ljubljana Slovenia 11-12 February 2013
27
Vision building tool, 7FP project VOLANTE /EU land use scenarios
(presentation from Alterra, NL)
RESULTS : Vision on HP development in WB-Group 1
RESULTS : Vision on HP development in WB-Group 2
RESULTS : Vision on HP
development in WB-Group 3
Main elements for input of the common vision (preliminary):
Exploitation of hydro potential in the region should continue in the context of the
expand of general energy production contributing to better self-sufficiency and
possible exports.
Present water uses should not be endangered and needs for other water uses
development should be fulfilled.
Hydropower development represents also some risks to biodiversity, river ecology,
extreme events, financial investments etc. Benefits-risks analyses and sustainable
development criteria should be the bases for development.
Strong regional and international cooperation, absence of conflicts and strong
institutional setting will support sustainable development of hydropower and other
water uses on the bases of domestic knowledge and technologies while integrating
other (especially EU) knowledge, legislation and experience.
It will contribute also to reduction of poverty and enhancing quality of life (
recreation, food supply, water supply) .
Conflicts within and between the regions are representing threats to sustainable
development and could have its negative effect in all emphasized issues.
Methodological approach for the
project forward-looking
assessment
"Future water use and the challenge of hydropower
development in western Balkan"
stakeholders workshop
STATE
Scenarios:
Past to present
developments
1
2
3
4
FUTURE
Climate change impacts
Economic development
2060
The good society
Techno garden in Balkans
Run to the hills
Downward spiral
water resources use
Desired vision of
hydropower
development 2030
-Water availability for
human use
-Environment related
-Extreme events
-Food security
-Health
-Conflicts
(stakeholders workshop)
THREATS and RISKS
SUMMARRY
What does desired HP development mean for 7 modules of security implications?
management options of risks
RESPONSE
•
management of water resources in conjunction to renewable energy planning
•
economic connection between water and power resources (prising…)
•
green economy
Looking from the present to the future
SCENARIOS – explorative, qualitative
WATER AVAILABILITY
1 The good society
projections
2 Techno garden in
HP DEVELOPMENT
Balkans
indicators
3 Run to the hills
4 Downward spiral
D r ivi n g
SECURITY IMPLICATIONS
for each scenario:
Water availability for human use
Environment related
Extreme events
Food security
Health
conflicts
f o r c e s
Looking from the future to present
THREATS and RISKS
Windtunelling of the
vision through 4
scenarios
STATE
of water resources
What can be done
now to hedge the
risks?
Security implications:
Water availability for human
Environment related
Extreme events
Food security
Health
?
conflicts
Desired vision
for HP
Normative,
qualitative (some
qualiative elements
SUMMARRY
What does desired HP development mean for 7 modules of security implications?
What are some of possible RESPONSES to hedge the risks?
Projections of scenarios impacts to water quantity
Water quantity
Modelling
Translating between quality and quantity
WB scenarios:
1 The good society
2 Techno garden in
Balkans
Land use
parameters
1 The good society
3 Run to the hills
2 Techno garden in
Balkans
4 Downward spiral
3 Run to the hills
24 results
8 Regional Climate
Models
Range of changes of water
quantity in the future in
WB (per year, per season)
4 Downward spiral
EXAMPLE of interpretation of LU parameters in qualitative scenarios
Agriculture in WB
scenarios
(qualit. description)
1 The good society
2 Techno garden in
Balkans
3 Run to the hills
4 Downward spiral
Land use parameters:
agriculture use
(qualit. description +quant.
indication)
1 The good society + 5%
2 Techno garden in Balkans – 3%
3 Run to the hills + 20%
4 Downward spiral + 30%
(4 scenarios x 8 models)
Example of outcome
We will have in 2030 15%% less
water. If we want more HP in our
vision this means risk.
In 2060/2100 we will have 30% less
water
For LU quantitative
indication use
Prelude where
possible
Environment security - definition
The security of individuals, communities, nation-states, and the
global community as a whole is increasingly jeopardised because of
unpremeditated environmental, non-military, threats.
Environmental security is seen as protection capability of societal systems
(communities) to withstand threats of
(1) environmental asset scarcity,
(2) environmental risks or adverse changes, and
(3) environment related tensions and conflicts.
R.Perelet (1994)

"The environment: towards a sustainable future”

Millenium project
42
Definitions used so far in the project:
For each scenario define threats that can jeopardize water availability
Define risks: risk is related to the impact of threat and vulnerability of water.
Participants should think how big risk is in the region in relation to threat add define
high, medium and low risks to water in Western Balkans. They can also provide some
sub regional specifications, for example on the coast, in the cites in specific countries,
etc.
Security is to withstand threats. Risks?
Environment and security assessment
Assessment of eleven global megatrends (EEA SOER 2010) impacting European region,
Global megatrend on climate change: Increasing severity of the consequences of climate change
Accelerating climate change impacts will imperil food and water supplies, human health and harm terrestrial
and marine life. Europe may see also more human migrations, changes in migratory species and aggravated
pressure on resources availability.
Economic and social
context and impacts
Environmental changes
Degradation
Environmental stress
Resources scarcity/abundance
Environment related security impacts
Ecological security, health risks
water security, food security, energy security, resource security
Human security
environment related tensions and conflicts
Destabilisation and conflicts
(civil unrest, wars, international instability)
Opportunity for prevention, mitigation, adaptation
44
Threats and risks in WB scenarios
Scenario 1
NAME
RISK
THREATS to risk
Risk description:
(according to STEEP categories)
-high, medium, low
GOALS
- time frame of appearance
(long term-50 years and more,
short term )
Shortages of water in coastal
cities
Water infrastructure out dated
(technological) and new not put
in place to follow developments
(economical, political)
High
1. revitalise spatial planning
system (political)
Long term
2. introduce new and more
efficient technologies
Increased tourism (economical)
….
Decreased precipitation
(environmental)
RISKS on water availability in Western
Balkans
 risks of spatially and temporally uneven water supply
 changing climate patterns and extreme events
 water management decisions such as planned cuts in water storage and
 increasing use of hydropower.
 risk of shortages of good quality drinking water, particularly in coastal and
urban regions
 risks to agricultural, industrial and transport sectors
 indirect water-related risks resulting from climate change:
 poverty, health and conflict arising from competition for scarce water resources.
46
THANK YOU
Environmental trends and perspectives in the Western
Balkans: future production and consumption patterns:
forces shaping the future of the environment in the Western Balkans, in particular
the role of consumption and production patterns
State
Driving forces
Different futures
2010
48
OSCE-EEA: Regional security implications of
climate change impacts
2011
2010
Global
workshop
Eastern
Europe
Food security
Western
Balkans
Water
availability
2013
2012
Central Asia
Caucasus
Mediterranean
Water-energyagriculture nexus
Regional to Global
workshop
Arctic
Regional workshops
Impacts to security
Global driving forces
Regional Scenarios
SOER 2010 — assessment of
global megatrends
Shifting Bases, Shifting Perils, A Scoping Study of Security
Implications of Climate Change in the OSCE Region
Assessment;
Environment and security
key messages
EEA Brochure: Using scenarios as tool for
better understanding environment and
security issues
49
Why do we need to look into the future?
 Policy making needs to uphold long term sustainability
goals with suitable approaches and precautionary
actions
Education / Public Information
Environment forward-looking assessment
Science / Research
Strategic Planning / Decision Support
 We face very dynamic changes and increasing complex
environment
50
Typology of scenarios
Exploratory vs Anticipatory Scenarios
exploratory scenarios
 present -> future
 to explore uncertainties/driving forces/developments
 to test impacts of implementing specific policies
anticipatory scenarios (also ‘normative’ scenarios)
 present <- future
 to investigate how specific end state can be reached
 to show how to achieve environmental targets
Slide 51
Forecasts versus Foresight
The Present
The Future
The Path
FORECAST
Current
Realities
(mental maps)
Multiple
Paths
Alternative
Future Images
FORESIGHT
13 December 2010
USAF/FOI
Some tools for exploring options for policy
decisions, impacts and effectiveness
EX ANTE ANALYSES
Provide options for the future and about the impact of our actions
 SCENARIOS AND PROJECTIONS
 IMPACT ASSESSMENT
 COST BENEFIT ANALYSES
STAKEHOLDER PARTICIPATION
 to elicit a stakeholder response,
 deep involvement in the process of options development – better commitment to
final policy decisions.
EX POST ANALYSES
EEA published work n this area:
 Packaging waste management (se EEA report)
 Urban waste water treatment policies (see EEA report)
 Use of market based instruments (see EEA report)
RISKS
1.
UNEVEN WATER SUPPLY IN
TIME & SPACE
-coastal regions, urban regions
2.
UNEXPECTED HASARDOUS
IMPACT OF WATER and
underestimation of severity
4.
INSUFFICIENT AND/OR
INADEQUATE WATER
INFRASTRUCTURE (SUPPLY)
5.
6.
7.
8.
GOALS- risks management
High level of monitoring system/network
Integrated water management
Sustainable spatial planning
Cooperation with neighbours and international conventions
High level of monitoring and early warning system
Direct water from N to S, maintain reservoirs,
spatial planning
maintenance of water reservoirs
Sustainable spatial planning
RISKS TO AGRICULTURE
AND INDUSTRY , RIVER
TRANSPORT
Low
DRINKING WATER
SCARCITY
Efficient irrigation technologies
water management, green technologies,
renewable energy increase-HP
RISK OF HIGH SHARE OF
RENEWABLE ENERGY
(HYDROPOWER) – THEY
CHANGE WATER REGIME
Low
Technological advances
Water and energy strategies combined
Integrated participatory based water management
WATER POLLUTION,
SALINISATION, EROSION
Improvement of water supply network and efficiency
Water affordability for all people
Forest management, water reuse, preservation of water
quality (EU water directive)
Technological advances
54
Pathways to reach the goals
S1 good society:
1) access of safe water to everybody, 2) affordable to people.
Legislation, social areas, economy for kick off-technology-economy instruments, environment
S2 technogarden :
Pathways to safe water supply:
Political stability, Education, Renewable energy, Green technologies, Production, Green agriculture , Water treatment, Tourism, Recycle and reuse, R&D support, Good decisions
“Economy  Politics  youth knowledge development”
S3 and S4 up to hills and downward spiral:
The foundation of pathways is in good governance and political stability
and everything starts from there.
pathway also consists of:

rewards and punishment depending on behaviour,

education, improve people’s awareness of environment, environmental workshops,

expert base decision making,

technological improvement,

increase water storage capacity,

economic development.
“In order to reach our goals we must not bite more than we can chew”.
55