Transcript Powerpoint - global change SysTem for Analysis, Research

Projects in Meso-America:
LA_06: Assessment of Impacts and Adaptation Measures for the Water Resources
Sector due to Extreme Events under Climate Change Conditions in Central America
Countries: Guatemala, Belize, Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Costa Rica and
Panama.
Sectors: Water resources and interacting sectors (Agriculture, tourism, disaster
management)
PI: Dr. Walter Fernández, UCR.
LA__29: Integrated Assessment of Social Vulnerability and Adaptation to
Climate Variability and Change Among Farmers in Mexico and Argentina
Countries: 2, Mexico and Argentina, also includes Colombia, Brazil and
Chile.
Sectors: Agriculture and Water
PI: Dr. Carlos Gay, UNAM.
SIS_06. The Threat of Dengue Fever – Assessment of Impacts and Adaptation to
Climate Change in Human Health in the Caribbean.
Countries: Jamaica, Barbados, Trinidad and Tobago and St. Kitts.
Sectors: Climate-Health and disease.
PI: Drs. A. A. Chen, UWI and S. C. Rawlins, CAREC.
LA06:
LA29 Methodology for V&A:
Hypothetical “Amoeba” Diagram of Community Adaptive Capacity
Accessibility of
Services
Income
100
Agricultural
Diversity
75
50
25
Production
Costs
Hazard frequency
0
Yield
Variability
Physical Resource
Index
Market
Involvement
Optimum
Community 1
Community 2
SIS06, Methodology include:
Retrospective study (interdisciplinary)
 Statistical downscaling
 Pilot Project
 SRES emission scenarios
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The linkage between climate and nonclimate scenarios will be achieved by
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Interdisciplinary teams work.
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Future Global and Regional Scenarios
(Tools like MAGICC & SCENGEN,
PRECIS ?,…).
Climate Information used by the three
projects includes

1.
Historical climatic data.
– a.
Local/regional data. Public domain databases. National
Meteorological Services & Local stations
– b.
Re-analyses (NCEP)


2. Aerological DataBases: CARDS, PACSSONET
3. GCM outputs.
Variables required for I, A & V
assessment:
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Temperature (Max., Min., Mean)
Precipitation
Solar Radiation
Winds
Runoff
Also, some non-climate variables: power
generation, yields, population growth, GDP,
etc.
Some Critical Uncertainties in the projects
are:
Spatial downscaling of climate and
socio-economic scenarios.
 Behaviour of Extreme Events in climate
change scenarios: trends, frequency,
intensity.
 Baseline.

Spatial and Temporal scales include:

Spatial scale:
– Local / Regional.
– Global. For climate change
downscaling techniques


scenarios
and
Temporal: daily, monthly, seasonal, annual,
decadal.
Baseline: 1961-1990 or at least 30 years of
data of the variables described.
Other projects in the region:
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“Development of a regional climate model system for
Central America”. Supported by NOAA-OGP. PI. Dr.
Jorge A. Amador, CIGEFI-UCR, Costa Rica.
“Climate variability and its impacts on the Mexican,
Central American and Caribbean region”. Supported
by IAI as a CRN. PI. Dr. Victor Magaña, UNAM,
México.
“When Oceans conspire: Examining the effect of
concurrent SST anomalies in the Tropical Atlantic and
Pacific on Caribbean Rainfall”. Supported by IAI as a
PESCA project. PIs. Drs. Michael Taylor and Anthony
Chen, UWI, Jamaica.
“Multi-objective study of climate variability for
mitigation in the trade convergence climate complex”.
Supported by IAI as a CRN. PI. M.Sc. Pilar Cornejo,
ESPOL, Ecuador.