Transcript conde_la29 - START - SysTem for Analysis Research and Training

Integrated Assessment of Social
Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate
Variability and Change Among Farmers
in Mexico and Argentina
Project Coordinator: Dr. Carlos Gay,
Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera,
UNAM, México DF
Project Duration: 3 years
RESEARCH TEAM
MEXICO
Carlos GAY– Atmospheric Physics - UNAM
Patricia ROMERO – Sociology/Public Policy – UAM
Cecilia CONDE – Climatology – UNAM
Jorge ADAME – Hydrology – U.of Tamaulipas
Hallie EAKIN – Geography – U. of Arizona
ARGENTINA
Roberto SEILER – Biometeorology – UNRC
Enrique GROTE – Social Psychology – UNRC
Marta VINOCUR – Agrometeorology – UNRC
Ana María GEYMONAT – Agricultural Economics – UNRC
Mónica WEHBE – Rural Development – UNRC
BRAZIL*: Maria del Carmen Lemos - Political Sciences-U.of Arizona
CHILE*: Alejandro León – U. of Chile. Agricultural Economics
COLOMBIA
* NOT SEEKING FUND
RESEARCH QUESTIONS
How are broad-scale socioeconomic processes of
change in Mexico and Argentina, translated into region
and sector-specific policy and institutional reforms,
affecting the vulnerabilities of different types of farm
systems and their capacities to adapt?
What are the implications of particular agricultural and
water policy reforms for the production strategies of
different types of farmers, and what is the significance
of these strategies in terms of enhancing or
diminishing the vulnerabilities of farmers to climatic
risk and their capacities to adapt to such risk?
How can existing water and agricultural institutions
and decision-makers make better use of climate
research? How can adaptation capacities be enhanced
within the context of current policy trends?
RESEARCH SITES
Small-scale export: Veracruz and Córdoba
Large-scale diversified export: Tamaulipas and Córdoba
Córdoba,
Argentina
Climate data required for our project
Surface Basic Variables
Temperature (maximun and minimun)
Precipitation
Solar radiation, cloud cover
Variables used in previous Mexican downscaling
statistical method
Sea surface temperature
Sea level pressure
Temperature and vorticity (700, 500 mb)
Possible variables that depend of the stakeholder
interest (related to hazards)
Winds, evaporation, days with frosts, heavy rains,
hail, etc.
These variables are needed at:
The following time scales
Historical: at least 30 years for baselines (1961-1990, if possible)
Recent years: 2000-2002
ENSO years
Climate trends and climate change scenarios: 2020s, 2050,..
The following time resolutions


Monthly (used also for generating seasonal, annual,..)
Daily for extreme event analysis and for crop simulation models
The following spatial resolutions


Regional
Local, county level
Methods/tools used for developing
climate scenarios
Base scenarios: 30 years trends and averages (19611990) if possible
Climate change scenarios
Incremental
Historic analogues (trends, El Niño years, decades similar to
selected GCMs outputs)
GCM outputs, interpolation, downscaling
Tools: Climlab, Magicc/ScenGen
Non-Climate data required for our project
Indicators to be examined
Socio-economic and environmental indicators will be
developed as the final step of the proposed methodology.
If the attributes proposed in the original project are
accepted, some indicators could be (examples):
Related to System flexibility: range of income
sources, diversity of crop base,..

Related to Livelihood stability: range of
variability in production (yields), income,
participation in labor markets

Related to Equity: access to services,
technical support, irrigation

Hypothetical “Amoeba” Diagram of Community Adaptive Capacity
Accessibility of
Services
Income
100
Agricultural
Diversity
75
50
25
Production
Costs
Hazard frequency
0
Yield
Variability
Physical Resource
Index
Market
Involvement
Optimum
Community 1
Community 2
These indicators are needed at:
The following time scales
Historical: perhaps 1970 as baseline for the two countries; perhaps 1995
as example of changes in livelihood strategies (e.g. Post NAFTA, in the
case of Mexico), for the two countries.
Recent years: 2000-2002. Current livelihood practices and resources
Strong ENSO years: droughts, floods
Perhaps only 2020 for some indicators (population, economic growth).
What if? Exercise
The following time resolutions
 Seasonal
 Annual
 Decadal (particularly last decade of the 20th century)
The following spatial resolutions
 National
 Regional
 County level, farm level
Methods/tools used for developing non-climate
scenarios and for the socioeconomic analysis
Identification with stakeholders participation of a set of
political-economic and economic factors that actually affect
them, such as markets, policies, risk management strategies.
Analysis of aggregated agricultural and socio-economic data at
regional and county level and other environmental statistics
In depth interviews and household surveys will be used to
generate specific indicators
Statistical and qualitative data analysis, e.g. estimation of the
relative importance of climate in decision-making.
Recent years‘ trends (globalization, neo-liberalism in the
Americas) and socio-economic projections will be used as
future possible scenariosTools: SPSS; detailed ethnographies, focus groups qualitative
interviews
Additional knowledge and skills expected to gain from
these workshops
Extreme events analysis.
Downscaling techniques
Magicc / Scengen and regional models basic features
In depth analysis of climate scenarios development and application:
state of the art.
Plans to communicate and transfer the
knowledge/skills to the rest of the project team
We will develop our first bi-national workshop on May, 2002.
Colombian researchers are invited to this workshop, mainly to discuss
the adoption of the same methodologies and to develop their AIACC
research agenda.
Students will use during this year the proposed methods /tools in
their thesis.
Advantages of using these methods/tools
Methods/tools. Climate:
Generally accepted (consensus of climate change community),
Well documented
Some of them applied/used previously by our research team.
Methods/tools. Non- climate
Well documented;
Some of them applied/used previously by our research team.
Some of them applied/used previously by our research team.
Disadvantages of and obstacles to using these
methods/tools
Methods/tools.
Increasing uncertainties, when changing time scales, spatial scales.
Downscaling techniques not agreed / applied at local / farm level by our
research team for both countries before
Consistency / integration between climate and socio-economic scenarios
for both countries is still an open question
How our climate and non – climate products will be discussed and
feedback with stakeholders and into our research is also an open
question. Particularly, we will define during the project how to assess the
interest and understanding of the stakeholders of possible climate change
conditions.