Transcript Aims and the Process to Date (Wilbanks)

The IAV Community Self-organization
Process: Aims and Progress So Far
Thomas J. Wilbanks
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
USA
Workshop on IAV Community
Coordination
8 January 2009
Managed by UT-Battelle
for the Department of Energy
First, Some Familiar Background (I):
• The IAV research community is fundamentally different
from the CCM/ESM and IAM communities:
̵ Not grounded in a limited number of centers focused on large
computer models, represented by consortia of those centers
̵ Distributed (fragmented?) by sector, region, scale, and time
frame
̵ Often characterized by individual or small-group research
̵ Usually starting from system sensitivities rather than
scenario projections
̵ Often preoccupied with the particular rather than the
general – and a believer in the value of “local” knowledge
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First, Some Familiar Background (II):
• Historically dependent on IPCC WG II to provide a
periodic structure and meeting place
• Lack of coherence identified by the IAV breakout group at
the Netherlands RCP meeting, September 2007, as a
serious constraint on the ability of the IAV community to
play an appropriately important role in climate change
science, i.e.:
̵ Who speaks for IAV knowledge and perspectives?
̵ What does IAV have to say?
̵ What does IAV want?
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That IAV Meeting Defined a Need for the IAV
Community to Take Steps to Organize Itself:
• Recognizing that any structure must emerge bottom-up: no
single person or entity has legitimacy to assert leadership
• Recognizing that any structure must be sensitive to the wide
variety of interests and agendas across the IAV community
• Recognizing that the IAV community is playing “catch-up”
compared with the CCM/ESM and IAM communities: lack
of progress could very well mean under-representation of
IAV knowledge and perspectives in climate change science
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Several Steps Have Been Taken Since Then to Get
Us to Where We Are Here in Boulder (I):
• The Netherlands meeting was followed by:
̵ The RCP report, which communicated a view of climate
change as a “stool with three legs”
̵ The workshop in Washington, DC, in March 2008 to consider
directions for IAV research following AR 4
̵ Specific focus on the bottom-up self-organization challenge at
the 2008 meeting of the Energy Modeling Forum in
Snowmass, July-August, arising from needs of ESM and IAM
researchers
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Several Steps Have Been Taken Since Then to Get
Us to Where We Are Here in Boulder (II):
• To move gently toward bottom-up self-organization:
̵ Message sent out August 29, 2008, to more than 90 colleagues
in the international IAV community, inviting participation in
a process of self-organization
̵ About 40 responded positively with interest, thoughts, and
some suggestions of others to contact and other activities for
linkages
̵ Second message sent on September 29, 2008 (resent on
October 6), summarizing the messages from the response
̵ Now have a self-identified list of about 50 IAV experts who
want to be involved, including a number of centers
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Here Is a Summary of the Summary (I):
 About possible foci for the IAV research community:
– Connecting with the IPCC new scenarios process, including
connecting climate change scenarios with a
risk/vulnerability management perspective
– Playing a leadership role in the development of the
proposed new “library” of socioeconomic scenarios and
story lines
– Strengthening the representation of adaptation in IPCC and
other climate change science arenas
– Increasing attention to relationships between adaptation
and mitigation
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Here Is a Summary of the Summary (II):
 About how to move toward some sort of structure for
channeling information, seeking community support, and
representing our knowledge and interests:
– Determine who among the IAV community would like to be
involved in the RCP/new scenarios process
– Identify who in IAV would like to use the new scenarios and what
they would like to get from them
– Identify who would like to be involved in the development of
socioeconomic scenarios and story lines
– Identify who would like to be involved in interactions with IPCC
and others about climate change adaptation
– This meeting is an early step in these directions
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Of Course, Needs for External Coordination Are Not
the Only Reason for IAV Self-organization:
 Opportunities to address important generic issues, such as:
– Interactions between climate change and other drivers of change
– Possible “tipping points” where impacts go non-linear
– Interactions among various categories of impacts – e.g., energy, water,
cities, health
 Needs to improve IAV science, such as:
– Issues about the quality of our data
– Issues about differences in the tools that we use (even for the same
questions)
– Issues about how we address uncertainties
 But coordination needs are a valuable catalyst for mobilizing
us to accomplish a great many things together
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