Transcript ppt - WMO
GCOS and IPCC Future directions of IPCC and how GCOS can support climate science and assessment Presentation by Renate Christ, Secretary of the IPCC Geneva, 14 October 2008 Observations of physical climate IPCC Observations - Some key uncertainties • • • • • • • • • Total and low level cloud change over oceans Quantifying trends in precipitation Soil moisture and streamflow Extreme events In situ snow data Thickness of Arctic ice Glacier mass loss Mass balance of ice sheets and ice sheet flow Trends in the MOC It is likely that anthropogenic warming has had a discernible influence on many physical and biological systems Observed changes in physical and biological systems since 1970 Marked scarcity of observational data in developing countries IPCC Observed impacts - research needs Improved observation networks • to enhance research capability on changes in physical, biological and socio-economic systems, particularly in regions with sparse data; • to improve functional understanding of the responses of natural and managed systems to climate change. • Documented evidence on adaptation to regional climate trends just emerging Post-AR4: Closing the loop between mitigation and impacts (Parry, et al., Nature Reviews Climate Change, 2008) IPCC IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) Further guidance by IPCC-30 – March/April 2009 Scoping meeting(s) – 2009 Approval of outline by IPCC-31 – end 2009/early 2010 Finalization of WG I Report – early 2013 Finalization of Reports by Working Groups II and III – 2014 6. Finalization of the Synthesis report – 2014 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. • Start planning for SYR earlier in the process Timetable determined by work on new scenarios carried out by scientific community to enable significant use of the new scenarios in developing the AR5 IPCC The new IPCC Bureau and TFB Elected on 4 September for AR5 Period IPCC New scenarios development process – parallel vs. sequential approach IPCC New scenarios development process – interactions for scenario development IPCC Product Phase Product 1: Representative Prep. Phase Concentration Pathways (RCPs) Time to Produce Short Description 12 months Four RCPs will be produced and include time paths for emissions and concentrations of the full suite of greenhouse gases, aerosols, and chemically active gases, as well as land use/land cover (see Table A1.1). Extension of RCPs to 2300 a research issue. Product 2: Climate Model Ensembles and Pattern Scaling Parallel Phase <24 months The long-term scenarios are expected to be run at approximately 2° resolution, while the near-term scenarios may have higher (0.5° to 1°) resolution. Pattern scaling a research challenge. Product 3: New IAM Scenarios Parallel Phase 24 months New socio-economic and emissions scenarios developed by the IAM community (with the IAV community). Product 4: Global Narrative Storylines Parallel Phase 24 months Detailed descriptions of assumptions associated with the four RCPs and new scenarios to encourage coordination across finer scale work at regional scale. This remains a key research issue. Product 5: Integrated Scenarios Integration Phase 18 months Synthesis of IAM, CM, and IAV work, including incorporation of feedbacks. Also still recognized as a research challenge. IPCC New scenarios development process and indicative AR5 timeline 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 AR5 Scoping WG I WG II WG III SYR IPCC AR5 scope – some key questions • Future changes in climate, impacts and socio economic conditions based on new scenarios • Economics of vulnerability and adaptation • Development of a regional approach in complement to the global approach, particularly in assessing the impacts and vulnerability • Coordinated treatment of adaptation and mitigation within an integrated sustainable development strategy • Regional knowledge on adaptation and mitigation IPCC Specific suggestions for Special Reports or AR5 Focus • Abrupt changes in the climate system • Synergy with other environmental conventions and SD • Adaptation, including an assessment of current practice • Specific regional or sub-regional IAV assessments including coastal areas, deltas and SIDS • Effectiveness of mitigation measures, including emissions trading • Sectoral assessments addressing technology, renewable energy and energy efficiency; lifestyle and consumption patters, forests and deforestation; water; health; transport IPCC Other planned or potential IPCC outputs Special Report on Renewable Energy sources • LA selection ongoing, first LA meeting January 2009, • Report to be finalized end of 2010 ? Special Report on Special Report on managing risks of extreme events to advance climate change adaptation • Scoping meeting to be held early 2009 • IPCC-30 will decide on SR or integration in AR5 ? Methodology work on alternative common metrics to calculate the CO2 equivalence of anthropogenic emissions • Expert meeting planned to advise on next steps IPCC IPCC Task Group on Data and Scenario Support for Impacts and Climate Analysis TGICA • facilitates wide availability of climate change related data and scenarios relevant to impacts, adaptation, vulnerability, and mitigation research, • Manages the Data Distribution Center (DDC) • and contributes to building capacity in the use of data and scenarios for climate related research DDC provides • data sets (climatological baselines, observations, other environmental, technological, and socio-economic factors) • climate and other scenarios • other materials (e.g., technical guidelines on use of scenarios) Next Meeting of TGICA 19-21 Nov 2008 in Geneva IPCC