Transcript Four overarching Questions from Breakout and Plenary

1. How much adaptation do we need within the period to
~2030 to cope with ‘inevitable’ climate change? (lines up
with 2030 RCP)
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What climate changes (global to local) are inevitable in that time
frame?
What range of impacts (global to local) result from those climate
commitments in that time frame? Net of adaptation and not –
metrics for impacts suitable for adaptation, subject to
development scenarios
What is likely – possible – emerging risks?
How do we manage the uncertainty embedded in climate
change (natural and anthropogenic) and resulting impacts?
Can societies/ecosystems adapt to those impacts?
What are the societal constraints/opportunities that limit/allow
adaptation?
Who most needs to adapt?
What are the unintended consequences of adaptation
(maladaptation), especially for mitigation?
Instructions to other communities; what we need from other
communities
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Climate modelling - climatology
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Decadal projections
Time series
‘Whole of climate’ approach involving natural variability
Projections of changing extremes
Need to engage with 2030 RCP and current emission scenarios & modelling
Social projections – national international data
– Demographics – infrastructure – institutions – economies
– Stakeholder-derived scenarios
– GEO4, MEA, IEA
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Adaptation processes – case studies, stakeholders
– Development pathways, existing policies
– Ecosystem processes
– Longitudinal studies
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Monitoring and data collection agencies
– Process studies in many disciplines
Propose strategy for implementation wrt
proposals, interact with other communities etc
• International program
– Project design available to in country researchers
– Other programs IGBP, IHDP, ESSP, UNEP/UNDP?, WCRP
(climate simul. regional scale), Macarthur F
• Sponsors & funding?
• Core of researchers/groups agree to take
program design on
• Promote during near term meetings –
Amsterdam, Brasil, WMO WCC3
• Medium term meeting IAV community
Framing the question
• We would like to be able to characterize impacts in the following way
– Takes into account sequence of social responses over multiple time frames,
including adaptive measures (covering both co-benefits and co-harms)
– Takes into account multiple stresses and contingencies
– Takes into account variance as well as means
– Is relevant to risk management practices that concern themselves with high
impact, low probability events.
– Takes into account differential impacts across multiple temporal and spatial
scales
– Takes into account impacts across multiple sectors in an integrated manner
– Takes into account impacts that are of concern to decision makers even if they
are not outputs of current climate models
Research Questions
1. How do plausible scenarios of multiple drivers interact to
shape likely climate impacts?
2. How do potential adaptations interact across multiple
sectors to affect overall impacts?
3. What uncertainties in climate models are most relevant
for understanding climate impacts and for making
decisions?
4. What methodologies are most effective for producing
generalizations and lessons learned from disparate case
studies?
5. What methodologies are effective for comparing costs of
impacts against costs of adaptation, in a way that takes
into account all relevant social practices.
What we need from other climate
change / global change communities
• Quantification of uncertainty in climate models
• Richer set of plausible physical impacts than just
what comes out of models
– precipitation patterns
– extreme weather events
– Low probability, high impact events
• Collaboration in production of scenarios that are
impact and adaptation relevant
– E.g. Multiple stresses, extreme events, surprises
Implementation
• Scenarios of socioeconomic factors
– Go beyond population and GDP
• Interactions with key power brokers and funders
(e.g. World Bank)
• NAS standing committee or similar overarching
institution
• Education and Training
• Centers of Excellence
• Outreach capacity
• Monitor practices relevant to adaptation
Important research dimensions:
1. What are the processes, relationships and
interactions in human and natural systems that
result in vulnerability to climate change?
2. Temporal dimension-- look back in time and see
how processes interact over time empirically.
Longitudinal studies.
3. Begin to model vulnerability looking in the future
(not only as projections, need to look at scenarios
and surprises)
4. Dynamic models. Coupled human-natural system
dynamics. As natural system changes, humans
change. Changing pattern of vulnerability.
Key Networking/Implementation Implications:
A. Connect up with DRR community, health community
B. For modeling we need to connect with demographic
community, IAM community, political
scientist/governance/institution community. These are
not core concerns of IAV but need to make critical
linkages there to accomplish IAV work.
C. Need to resolve who the clients are for this research.
We think it should go beyond traditional IPCC clients.
Without knowing clients, we won’t know the key
contexts.
What are the processes, relationships and interactions
in human and natural systems that result in
vulnerability to climate change in order to facilitate
effective adaptation and adaptive capacity?
What are the interactions between mitigation and
adaptation? Where do they overlap, feedback and
mutually exclusive
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How much adaptation do we need beyond 2030, at max, min and range of
mitigation levels
Investigate limits of adaptation informing the need for mitigation; what are
the residual risks?
Use range of scenarios to assess adapt and mitigation; investigate high
consequence risks
How much does early mitigation reduce requirements for adaptation later on?
What are the local synergies between adaptation and mitigation?
What are the synergies/barriers for adaptation if strong mitigation is effected?
How are mitigation and adaptation organised in the policy and institutional
sense? Scale is key
Investigate distribution and levels of adaptive capacity for different emissions
pathways
Co-benefits and risks of mitigation and adaptation technologies (& geoengineering)?
Global model inter-comparisons
Interactions with other communities
IAM community
Want info on impacts, adaptive capacity etc
Want costs of adaptation for economic assessment
Estimates of uncertainties in impacts, adaptation
Testing and developing determinants of vulnerability, adaptive
capacity (multiple metrics)
With IAM community, explore development pathways in
different model environments
Building local and regional info into IAMs
Testing metrics and parameters, for valuation of impacts
Stakeholders interested in joint policy outcomes, cobenefits etc.
Propose strategy for implementation wrt
proposals, interact with other communities etc
• Session with the EMF on how to set this up –
also in Europe, Japan? IAMC
• Work into WGIII programs
• Scenario and storyline parallel process
• IHDP open meeting (modelling session)