Transcript Carter - Analysis, Integration and Modeling of the Earth System

Some thoughts on IAV
community co-operation
Timothy Carter
Finnish Environment Institute, SYKE
Research Programme for Global Change
Workshop on Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (IAV) Community Coordination
8-9 January 2009, National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, USA
Who are we in IAV?
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Empiricists
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Impact modellers
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Disciplinary/process focus (and ESMs); disciplinary/applied focus; interdisciplinary/applied focus; integrated assessment; global to local
Experimentalists
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Gas enrichment; controlled climate; materials; land use management
Vulnerability assessors
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Mapping indices/indicators; local (household) to global
Adaptation researchers
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Adaptation processes; adaptation practices; management for adaptation
and mitigation; development of analytical methods, tools and metrics
Adaptation policy analysts
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Observed impacts (long-term/extreme events); observed adaptation
(reactive and anticipatory; to averages/extremes; maladaptation)
Governance; coherence; integration; mitigation/adaptation;
implementation
Well, that's just some of us!
Workshop on Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (IAV) Community Coordination
8-9 January 2009, National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, USA
Quite a diversity
Workshop on Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (IAV) Community Coordination
8-9 January 2009, National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, USA
What is the function of an IAV network?
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To represent IAV interests in developing new
scenarios?
To promote initiatives for IAV research coordination?
To develop structures for an international IAV
research programme?
To link IAV to the wider, non-climate change
research community?
Several or all of the above?
Workshop on Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (IAV) Community Coordination
8-9 January 2009, National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, USA
Network to represent IAV interests
developing new scenarios
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Original motivating force behind this initiative
Main issues:
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Representing IAV needs in discussions about the new scenarios
Providing a reference point/organisation for interacting with the climate
modelling and integrated assessment modelling communities
Ensuring that new scenarios are delivered that are appropriate and timely
for IAV analysis and can be distributed to those researchers who require
them – relationship to TGICA
2007 scenarios questionnaire to IPCC WG II LAs (response rate
15/39) – all supported new scenarios; stressed need for
regional information and scenario "relevance" for stakeholders
Need for IAV co-ordination raised in Nordwijkerhout, Sep 2007
EC meeting on AR5 new scenarios, Brussels, Sep 2008
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European research projects would benefit from co-ordination of scenario
development, interpretation and guidance (e.g. including this network)
But, unsuccessful request for supplementary EC funding for this meeting
Workshop on Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (IAV) Community Coordination
8-9 January 2009, National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, USA
Network to promote initiatives for IAV
research co-ordination
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Co-ordinate IAV research efforts, for example:
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Basic research – process studies, empirical analysis, model development
Impact/adaptation model intercomparison studies (viz. IGBP/GCTE, 1990s)
Common issues (e.g. irreversibility; thresholds; costing; high impact events)
Collection and collation of new information and studies on observed
impacts/adaptations (incl. limits to adaptation, relationships to mitigation)
Provision of models, tools, data and scenarios
Development of guidance for IAV practitioners
Workshops and conferences to exchange information and design new
collaborative research
Organisation of training courses, mentorships, workshops, targeting e.g.
young researchers, developing country researchers, policy makers, planners
Enable more coherent and effective communication with other
research communities and stakeholder groups?
Probably requires international steering and regional/sectoral
representatives
Overlaps with IPCC TGICA (Task Group on Data and Scenario
Support for Impacts and Climate Analysis)?
Workshop on Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (IAV) Community Coordination
8-9 January 2009, National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, USA
Network to develop structures for an
international IAV research programme
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Develop a structure for the international co-ordination and
funding of IAV research comparable to WCRP and focused on
climate change as distinct from related programmes?
Attempt to re-invigorate UNEP's World Climate Impacts and
Responses Programme (WCIRP)
Other options: WMO leadership; researchers' consortium;
nationally-led initiatives (e.g. UK DfID)
Other related initiatives, e.g. WCC3 Conference (Geneva, Sep
2009), will establish a world climate information network
Earlier programmes: Country Studies; AIACC
Funding: ideally by governments
Workshop on Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (IAV) Community Coordination
8-9 January 2009, National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, USA
Network to link IAV to the wider, nonclimate change research community
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Forge links to research communities outside the mainstream
climate change research community (e.g. social vulnerability,
sustainable development, governance, disaster management,
natural hazards)?
Liaise with various user communities and stakeholders to coordinate effective IAV assessment and exchange tools, best
practices, data and scenarios
Workshop on Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (IAV) Community Coordination
8-9 January 2009, National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, USA
Three final observations
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A network should be research/science – based
Basic and applied/synthetic research – is there a
bias?
A single network may not serve all of our needs
Workshop on Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (IAV) Community Coordination
8-9 January 2009, National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, USA