Transcript Five Breakout Group Reports - Analysis, Integration and Modeling of

Group 1
 Issues of highest importance
 Increase focus on emerging sectors and regions
 Urbanization, health, vulnerable populations, human-ecosystem
interactions …
 Develop projects illustrating interactions between
(1) process of adaptation, (2) knowledge needed
for action, and (3) earth system models
 Foci for discussion/action
 Develop guidance for modeling and experiments to
facilitate inter-comparisons within the framework
of the new scenario development (including RCP)
 Develop proposals with multiple institutions that
integrate top-down/bottom-up, across sectors
Improving knowledge, core questions, integrators, priority foci, linkages:
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Big need to understand the factors that mediate impacts and adaptation
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Have had go at observed impacts, but all OECD. Big gap for most vulnerable
countries
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Better linkage needed between vulnerability and adaptation, so that adaptation can
be promoted. That is, vulnerability assessment drivien by the needs for adaptation.
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Costings: need better impact and adaptation costings.
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Intercomparison, at different scales and sectors, of success (or lack thereof) in
promoting effective adaptation.
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Identification of individuals and sub-groups within IAV who can articulate needs
for model outputs and scenario
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Short-term predictive capacity (10-year) that relies on obtaining model runs that a
re able to generate decadal oscillations and ENSO
Ripe for progress
Longer term development
Essentials for science/
assessment
•Extremes, severe climate
change
•Model/tool
intercomparison
•IAV in the multiple
stressors
•Rates of change
•Scales for adaptation
•Avoided impacts
•Linking
adaptation/mitigation/dev
elopment
•Geoengineering
assessment
Essential for applications
and decision making
•Making data/models
available
•Different modes for
product delivery
•Assessing the grey
literature
•Adaptation in complex
systems
•Institutional aspects
WORKING GROUP 4
• Need to better characterize the properties of the IAV
community and activities and interactions with the
broad community
• Recognize cross scale issues especially linking regional
scales with local and global (context vs scale; critical
resource)
• Exploration of methodological framework
• Use of Intercomparison of impact assessment
• Recognize the explicit nature of decision making
among IAV community
• Need to outline the iterative process between
scenarios
Key Research Questions
• I – Integration across sectors – e.g., agriculture, water
• I – Characterizing full range of uncertainty
- Beyond climate models
• A – Interactions of disaster risk reduction, extreme events,
and climate change
- linkages, trends, attribution
• A – Mapping decision and decision support processes for
integrated resource management
- characterizing decisions, entry points, multiple
values, evaluating outcomes
• A – Knowledge pathways – management and information
services in support of adaptation
• A&V – Agency – adaptive capacity; political, collective
actions at different levels of analysis; households to regions
and nations
• A&V – How to incorporate varying socioeconomic data,
models, studies into IAM storylines and models?
Towards an IAV Coordinating Organization
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1)
2)
3)
Organize around ~4 key themes
Social/ecological hotspots with foci/sectors in matrix form
Scenarios – both storylines development and use
Data and models – model intercomparisons, meta-analyses,
integration of quantitative and qualitative data
4) Decisions, decision-making and decision support.
• Developing and sustaining a network, nodes/centers including
developing countries
- Take it seriously!
E.g., appropriate policies, practices, impediments, nodes, to ensure
effectiveness/longevity of IAV research and applications network
- workshops, training, workforce development, entrainment of
young scientists
Funding!
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Roles/interactions with WCIRP, IHDP, TGICA,
Foundations, World Bank -- Issues of mainstreaming