Transcript Some thoughts on the AR4 and the AR5

Some TSU reflections on the
AR4 and onward
Jean Palutikof
Head of TSU for the AR4
now Director, National Climate Change Adaptation
Research Facility, Griffith University, Gold Coast, QLD
Workshop on Climate Change IAV, Boulder, CO, 8-9 January 2009
Chapters of the WGII AR4
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SPM
Technical Summary
Observed impacts
Scenarios and methods
Impacts by sector
Impacts by region
4 response/summary chapters
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Adaptation
Adaptation and mitigation
Key vulnerabilities
CC and sustainability
Workshop on Climate Change IAV, Boulder, CO, 8-9 January 2009
How did it look from a TSU
perspective: sectors and regions?
• Most sectoral impact chapters took an approach
based around quantification of, primarily future,
impacts, following the literature.
• Exception was Chapter 7 (Settlements), which
took a vulnerability-based approach.
• Regional chapters were very uneven.
– Two of the most successful: Aus+NZ; NAm:
• Homogeneous regions - two countries
• Wealth of refereed literature
– Asia and LAm struggled:
• Sheer scale of the undertaking,
• Large amount of grey literature
Workshop on Climate Change IAV, Boulder, CO, 8-9 January 2009
How did it look from a TSU
perspective: bracketing chapters?
• Perceived as more ‘interesting’ by the
authors (more of an intellectual challenge)
whereas this is not necessarily the case
from the perspective of the audience.
• Chapter 17 made a deliberate decision to
take a scholarly approach and to deemphasise the grey literature
• Chapter 18 suffered from a lack of
literature to assess.
Workshop on Climate Change IAV, Boulder, CO, 8-9 January 2009
Issues:
• Some chapters came close to doing research.
• Some chapters were conscientious about addressing
reviewers comments and some were cavalier.
• Some authors were over-influenced by what they
thought the governments would think.
• The grey literature was a continuing headache
– Especially when it was non-English language.
– IPCC gives insufficient guidance.
• VERY UNEVEN
• The commitment and grace of the authors was a
continuing wonder to the TSU.
• The task of WGII was fundamentally different from that of
WGI and WGIII, and this was largely unrecognised.
– In its scope
– In the literature to be assessed
– In its audience
Workshop on Climate Change IAV, Boulder, CO, 8-9 January 2009
Challenges of the WGII AR5?
• Gradual shift in emphasis of activity in
climate change
– From research in universities to practice in the
community
– From quantification of present and future
impacts to acceptance of their reality
– From impacts to adaptation
• Where will the IPCC position itself?
Workshop on Climate Change IAV, Boulder, CO, 8-9 January 2009
Grey literature
• OK if being used to illustrates how the field
is developing
• But can be an issue if used to substantiate
scientific argument.
• Calls into question just how much WGII
assesses literature and how much it
reports it.
• And where the borderline between
assessment and research really lies.
Workshop on Climate Change IAV, Boulder, CO, 8-9 January 2009
To conclude
• As ever, the hard questions are asked of WGII
• For WGI and WGIII, the assessment remains
well-constrained in its terms of reference
• For WGII, the assessment, already wide in its
scope, has the potential to broaden even further
to encompass the assessment of practical
initiatives to address climate change.
Workshop on Climate Change IAV, Boulder, CO, 8-9 January 2009