Transcript impact, adaptation and vulnerability on the european resource base

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT AND ADAPTATION MEASURES
UNDER UNFCCC AND KYOTO PROTOCOL
November 19-20, Budapest, Hungary
CLIMATE CHANGE: IMPACT,
ADAPTATION AND VULNERABILITY
ON THE EUROPEAN RESOURCE BASE
NOVÁKY BÉLA
CLIMATE CHANGE
Warming of the climate system
is unequivocal, as it now
evident from observations
SPM WGI
Global average
temperature
Global average
sea level
Northern hemisphere
snow cover
Continued greenhouse gas
emissions …would cause
further warming and induce
many changes in the global
climate system during the 21-st
century
SPM WGI
Europe - mean climate
Increase in temperature in all seasons and year
(A2: 2.5-5.5 °C, B2:1-4 °C)
Annual precipitation increases in N and Atlantic
Europe, decreases in S and Central Europe
Seasonal change in precipitation varies from
season to season and across regions
WGII Chapter 12.3
WGI Chapter 11
Europe - extreme events
Maximum temperature increases in S and C Europe
much more than in N Europe
C. Europe would experience the number of hot days
as currently occur in S. Europe
Increase in the intensity of daily precipitation, even
for areas with a decrease in mean precipitation,
e.g. increase in short duration summer rainfall by up
to 40% in Slovakia (Lapin and Hlavcova 2003)
WGII Chapter 12.3
OBSERVED CHANGES
The SPM concludes that many
natural systems are being
affected by regional climate
changes, particularly
temperature increase
WGII SPM
For the first time, wide-ranging
impacts of change in current
climate have been documented
WGII Chapter 12, TS WGII
Warming trend throughout Europe
• for 1901-2005 is +0,90 °C (0,086 °C/decad)
• for 1979-2005 is +0,41 °C (0,164 °C/decad)
Regionally the trend is highest in C, NE Europe,
and in mountains, lowest in Mediterranean
Mean precipitation
• is increasing in most of Atlantic and N Europe
• is decreasing along Mediterranean (east)
• no significant change in west of Mediterranean
Increase in precipitation per wet day
WGII Chapter 12.2
Unprecedented heat wave in 2003
(a)
Extreme glacier melt in
the Alps
Low river flow, e.g. in
the Danube river
30% reduction in gross
primary production of
terrestrial ecosystems
(b)
(c)
(d)
Prese nt
Wildfires
Excess death (about
35,000)
Cryosphere
Decrease in glacier volume and area (except some
glaciers in Norway)
Paul et al. 2002
Cryosphere
Decrease in seasonal snow cover (at lower elevation)
in Alps, in Slovakian mountains. No changes was
observed in Bulgaria
Reductions in annual snow cover by about 1 day/year
in lowland areas of C. Europe
Decrease in thickness and areal extent of permafrost
in Russia. Increasing damages to infrastructure
Water
Increased runoff due to enhanced glacier melts,
formation of lakes in the Alps
No significant change is detected in annual runoff in
most part of Europe (Pekárová et al. 2004)
Significant trends in floods have not been detected
globally (increase 27, decrease 31, and no trend
137 cases) (WGII Chapter 3)
1000 km
Marine ecosystems
Northward movement of warmer-water plankton by 10 °
latitude in NE Atlantic, retreat of colder-water plankton
Beaugrand et al. 2005
Terrestrial ecosystems
Earlier leaf unfolding dates
Walther et al. 2002
Agriculture
More favourable conditions due to warmer summer in
N. Europe
Olesen et al.
2006
Agriculture
In all wine regions of France wine quantities and
qualities indices have increased
WGII Chapter 1
Alcohol concentration
of wine in Alsace
Duchéne and Schneider
2004
Human health
Increase in heat wave mortality (Mediterranean,
Atlantic, Central) and decline in winter mortality
Movement of tick vectors northwards (e.g.
Sweden) and to high latitude (e.g. Czech Republic)
Earlier onset and extension of season for allergic
pollen (all of Europe)
The observed changes are
consistent with projections of
impacts due to climate change
WGII Chapter 12, TS WGII
IMPACTS
Climate-related hazards will
mostly increase, although
changes will vary
geographically
WGII Chapter 12, TS WGII
Natural hazards
SLR and
increasing
storminess
Temperature
Extreme
More frequent and
Coastal
flooding, by intense heat waves,
increased health
2080
related risk in most
additional
of Europe
1,6 million
people to be
Increasing fire and
affected
peatland fire risk in
each year
Mediterranean and
in C and E Europe
Coastal
erosion
Precipitation
Mean
Extreme
More frequent
and intense
drought in S
and SE
Europe
Flash
floods
across
Europe
Winter
floods in
maritime
regions
Dispersal of
insects
Allergenic
diseases
Cold mortality
declines
Rockfalls
Change in recurrence of 100-year droughts
2020s
2070s
Climate change is likely to
magnify regional differences
Europe’s natural resources
and assets
WGII Chapter 12, TS WGII
Increasing ecosystem
productivity
Increasing water availability,
increase in hydropower (15-30%)
Increase in crop yield
Decrease in yield for
spring-sown crops (maize,
sunflower, spring wheat)
Increase yield variability
due to increase of extreme
weather events
Decreasing ecosystem
productivity, decrease
forestry system
Decreasing water availability, summer
flow can decrease up to 80%,
decrease in hydropower (20-50%)
Change in annual runoff
Water stress is likely to
increase, as well as the number
of people living in river basin
under high water stress
WGII Chapter 12, TS WGII
Water stress increases in Central and Southeastern Europe
The watershed areas under sever stress increases
from 19% today to 35% by 2070
The number of additional people living under water
stress conditions in region of 17 western European
countries increases between 16 to 44 million
It is anticipated that Europe’s
natural systems and
biodiversity will be
substantially affected by
climate change
WGII Chapter 12, TS WGII
Natural systems
• Small glacier will disappear and larger glaciers substantially
shrink
• Duration of snow cover decreases by several weeks for
each °C of temperature increase in the Alps at middle
elevation
• Many (lowland) permafrost areas in the Arctic disappear.
Loss of permafrost in Arctic will likely cause a reduction of
some types of wetlands
• Inland waters in S. Europe are likely to have lower volume
and increased salinization
Ecosystems
• Sea level rise causes an loss of up to 20% coastal wetlands
• In mountains the tree line shifts upward by several hundred
meters
• Forested area increases in North and decreases in South.
The northward expansion of forests is projected to reduce
current tundra areas under some scenarios
• Native conifers are replaced by deciduous trees in W. and C.
Europe
• Along the Mediterranean many ephemeral aquatic
ecosystems disappears, and permanent shrinks
• Higher nutrient loadings in N may intensify the eutrophication
of lakes
Biodiversity
• A large percentage of the European flora is projected to
become vulnerable, endangered, critically endangered or extinct
by the end of 21st century
• Mountain plants community face reductions of up to 60% of
species. Mountain regions may experience a lost of endemism
due to invasive species
• The range of plants is very likely to expand northward and
contract in S. European mountains and in Mediterranean basin
• In freshwater ecosystems, biodiversity will increase in the
North and decrease in the South
• High water temperature can produce high mortality for some
mammals in the Mediterranean due to increased infections
Most amphibian (45-69%) and reptile (61-89%) species are
virtually certain to expand their range if dispersal were unlimited.
However, under no dispersal, the range most (>97%) species will
become smaller
2021-2050
2051-2080
Increase
Decrease
Climate change will pose
challenges to many
European economic sectors
and it is expected to alter the
distribution of economic activity
WGII Chapter 12, TS WGII
• Climate change and increase of CO2 lead to overall small
increases crop productivity. Agriculture will have to cope with
increased water demand for irrigation in S. Europe
• Recruitment and production of marine fishery in the North
Atlantic are likely to increase
• Winter heating demand decreases, summer cooling demand
increases
• Droughts and reduced runoff affect river navigation (Rhine)
• Tourism along the Mediterranean is likely to decrease in
summer and increase in spring and autumn. Reductions in the
ski season in mountains. In the Austrian Alps 1 °C rise leads to 4
fewer weeks of skiing days in winter
ADAPTATION AND
VULNERABILITY
Adaptation will be necessary to address impacts
which is already unavoidable due to past emissions
A wide array of adaptation options is available, but
more extensive adaptation than currently occurring
is required to reduce vulnerability.
There are barriers, limits and costs, but these are
not fully understood
Sustainable development can reduce vulnerability,
and climate change could impede nations’ abilities to
achieve sustainable development
WGII SPM
Adaptation to climate change is
likely to benefit from experience
gained in reactions to extreme
events, by specifically
implementing proactive climatechange risk management
adaptation plans
WGII Chapter 12, TS WGII
Preventive emergency plans and warning system to
avoid and minimize the risk of natural hazards (flood
warning system, evacuations, health warning systems)
More economical use of natural assets (reducing water
demand, reducing leaky municipal and irrigation water
systems, wastewater reuse and desalinization, water price)
Land use better suitable to climate change (change in
species of forest, in crop species, introducing new crops
and varieties, adapted seedlings, allocation land according
to its changing suitability)
Better management practices (changes in cultivars,
introduction of multi-species planting into mono-species
coniferous plantations)
More dynamic strategy and new sides for conservation
biodiversity (protected areas, nature reserves, botanical
gardens) and lessening to minimum the other human
induced stresses
Structural and design processes (structural measures
for flood control, water reservoirs, urban planning, housing
design, re-design of energy supply system, infrastructure
planning and building techniques in permafrost areas)
Modification of human behaviour (autonomous and
reactive change recreation and travel behaviour, choose
new forms in tourism, changes in temporal pattern of
seaside tourism)
Limitations in adaptation to water stress
Cost – high investment cost for building
reservoirs, high energy cost for salinization
Environmental regulation – reservoirs,
intensification of ground water use
Health concerns – wastewater
The great majority of
organisms and ecosystems
are likely to have difficulties in
adapting to climate change
WGII Chapter 12, TS WGII
Adaptation in natural ecosystems
Low lying, geologically subsiding coasts are
likely to be unable to adapt to sea level rise
No obvious climate adaptation options for
tundra or alpine vegetation
Few obvious adaptation options, specific
management have yet to be defined for
mountain forests
AT: Increased coastal erosion and
flooding; stressing of marine biosystems and habitat loss; increased
tourism pressure on coasts; greater
winter storm risk and vulnerability of
transport to winds
BO: Water logging;
eutrophication of lakes
and wetlands; increased
coastal flooding and
erosion; increased
winter storm risk;
reduced ski season;
severe fires in drained
peatland
TU: Thawing of
permafrost;
decreased tundra
area; increased
coastal erosion and
flooding
CE: Increased frequency
and magnitude of winter
floods; increased
variability of crop yields;
increased health effects of
heat waves
MT: Glaciers disappearing;
reduced snow-cover period;
upward shift of tree line; severe
biodiversity losses; reduced ski
season
ME: Reduced water availability; increased drought; severe
biodiversity losses; increased forest fires; reduced summer
tourism; reduced suitable cropping areas, increased energy
demand in summer, reduced hydropower; increased land losses in
estuaries and deltas; increased salinity and eutrophication of
coastal waters
ST: Decreased crop
yield; increased soil
erosion; increased SLR
with positive NAO;
increased salinity of
inland seas
Summary
Impacts are occurring now as a consequence of climate change
Future possible impacts have been identified
All regions of Europe will see negative impacts of climate
change, although will also be positive effects, especially in
North Europe
Negative impacts will predominant in the South. However as
warming continues, negative impacts will also dominant in North
Europe
Most vulnerable sectors and regions: tundra, Alpine and
mediterranean-type ecosystems, low-lying coastal regions,
water resources in mid-latitudes, human health in areas with low
adaptive capacity
Thank you your attention
[email protected]