Transcript Research needs: vulnerability, impacts, adaptation and

Research needs: vulnerability,
impacts, adaptation and mitigation
Jean Palutikof
Technical Support Unit, IPCC Working Group II
Hadley Centre, UK Met Office
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Research needs from the WGII TAR
SPM
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Quantitative assessments, with emphasis on extremes,
range of climate variation
Thresholds at which strongly discontinuous responses
triggered
Understanding dynamic responses of ecosystems to
multiple stresses at a range of scales
Adaptation: estimation of effectiveness and costs of options,
opportunities, obstacles, by region, nation, population
Assessment of impacts in multiple metrics, with consistent
treatment of uncertainties, taking into account stabilization
and other policy scenarios
Tools: integrated assessment, risk assessment
Opportunities to include scientific information in decision
making
Improvement of systems and methods for long-term
monitoring
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How is WGII AR4 0rganized?
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Observed changes (1)
New assessment methodologies (2)
Sectoral chapters (3, 4, 5, 7, 8)
Regional chapters
– Location (9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14)
– Typology (6, 15, 16)
• Synthesising chapters
– Adaptation (17)
– Adaptation and mitigation (18)
– Key vulnerabilities and risks (19)
– Climate change and sustainable development (20)
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Cross-cutting themes
• Important in defining research needs and
incorporating them into the assessment
– Uncertainties (Maynooth, May 2004)
– Article 2 and key vulnerabilities (Buenos
Aires, May 2004)
– Adaptation & mitigation (Amsterdam,
September 2004)
– Regional integration (Llubljana, September
2004)
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1. Quantitative assessment,
extremes
• This is a message to be taken into account
throughout the assessment
• Extremes
– May lie beyond current experience and hence the
capacity of impact models
– Need to explore literature on present-day responses to
extremes and their management: flood studies,
windstorm impact, heat stress
– Abrupt climate change (Chapter 2). The literature on
the impacts of the collapse of the thermohaline
circulation
• Change in range of climate variation
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Change in climate variation:
generally the emphasis until
now has been on changes in the
mean climate. We need to
understand the impacts of
changes in climate variability at
a range of scales: decadal, interannual, seasonal, daily, and
taking into account large-scale
atmospheric regimes such as
ENSO and the NAO.
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2. Thresholds
• Strongly discontinuous responses to
projected climate change
Change in related
response rate
Step change in
response variable
Climate change
Ecosystems: species
extinctions
Health: arrival of malaria
Time
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3. Dynamic ecosystem
response to multiple stresses
• Will be addressed primarily in Chapter 4,
Ecosystems and their Services
• CLAs: Fischlin and Midgley
• But should also be taken into account in
the regional suite of chapters
• Stresses will include climate, direct effects
of CO2, pollutants
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4. Adaptation
• CLAs Adger, Agrawala, Mirza
• Topics:
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Methods and concepts
Assessment of current adaptation practices
Assessment of adaptation capacity
Enhancing adaptation: opportunities, transfer of technologies,
constraints, adaptive learning
• Important role for practitioners
• WGII also has a chapter on Adaptation & Mitigation
(CLAs Huq, Klein)
– Mitigation strategies (top-down) and adaptation (bottom-up)
strategies; mixes, synergies
– Issues of scale and timing
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5. Impacts: metrics, consistent
treatment of uncertainties
These are issues threading throughout the WGII Assessment,
and concern not only Impacts but Chapters 17 and 18 also.
Metrics: If we seek for a more quantitative assessment
• How do we measure impacts, numeraires for valuing impacts.
In monetary, non-monetary terms? Issues of equity, justice,
rights-based frameworks.
• How do we achieve it in sectors such as ecosystems?
Uncertainties:
• The need for precision in language – this is not new to the
AR4 but remains a vital issue, related to credibility. What is
meant by likely, very likely, probable etc.
• The need to state confidence/uncertainty, using standard
errors, confidence limits.
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6. Tools: integrated assessment, risk
assessment; to investigate:
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Natural/human system interactions
Consequences of policy decisions
Chapter 2, New assessment methodologies,
CLAs Carter (Finland), Lu (UK/China), Jones
(Australia)
7. Assessment of opportunities to include
scientific information in decision making
8. Improvement of systems and methods for
long-term monitoring
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Recommendations likely to emerge from
Chapter 1 (CLAs: Casassa (Chile), Rosenzweig
(USA))
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Role of the cross-cutting
themes
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Key vulnerabilities (Article 2)
• Chapter 19 (Patwardhan, Schneider, Semenov)
– Concepts and methods, taking into account the broad
framework of past IPCC activities, Millenium
Ecosystem Assessment, WEHAB framework
developed at World Summit on Sustainable
Development
– Identification and assessment of key vulnerabilities
– Role of adaptation in reducing vulnerabilities
– Climate scenarios likely to lead to the exceedance of
thresholds, and their associated probabilities
– Role of mitigation in achieving stabilization and
avoiding/delaying key vulnerabilities
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Regional Integration
• Plan to develop regional case studies which will thread as
a series of chapter boxes throughout the WGII
assessment
• Starting point:
– Information on regional climate changes/SLR from WGI
– Information on technological, economic, social futures from
WGIII
• End point – feeding into and informing Chapter 20
(Climate change and sustainability)
• For example:
– Southern Africa , drought, causes, role of seasonal forecasting
– Western Europe, role of NAO, abrupt climate change
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The writing process:
where we stand
• Author list is nearly complete but reveals
itself to be a strongly asymptotic process
– 47 Co-ordinating Lead Authors
– 134 Lead Authors
– 40 Review Editors
• First Lead Author meeting is to be held
September 20 -23 204 in Vienna
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