Transcript Integrated methods and models for assessing coastal vulnerability in

Integrated Methods and Models for Assessing
Coastal Impacts and Adaptation to Climate
Change in Fiji and the Cook Islands
(AIACC Project SIS09)
Conducted by:
Pacific Centre for Sustainable Environment and Development (PACE),
The University of the South Pacific
In collaboration with:
International Global Change Institute (IGCI), The University of Waikato
and the
South Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP)
Three Linked Objectives
1. New tools for integrated assessment
2. Case study applications
3. Capacity building
Focus on:
Local scale assessment
Coastal settlements
Risks from variability and extremes
OBJECTIVE 1:
New Tools for Integrated Assessment
• Build upon the foundation of models already
developed for islands of the Pacific
For example, the existing FijiCLIM model:
M e a n A n nSuitability
u a l P r e c i p ifor
t a t i Taro
o n Growing
2070
OBJECTIVE 1 (con’t.)
New Model Features
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Human dimensions components
Capacity for local-scale modelling
Scenarios of future development and land use change
Local sea-level rise scenario generator
Improved coastal impact modelling
Adaptation analysis
Economic tools
OBJECTIVE 1 (con’t.)
Progress…
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Human dimensions components
Capacity for local-scale modelling
Scenarios of future development and land use change
Local sea-level rise scenario generator
Improved coastal impact modelling
Adaptation analysis
Economic tools
Flexibility to choose area and resolution and easily input local
spatial climate patterns and site data
OBJECTIVE 1 (con’t.)
Local trends
Progress…
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Human dimensions components
Capacity for local-scale modelling
Scenarios of future development and land use change
Local sea-level rise scenario generator
Adaptation analysis
Economic tools
Combine global, regional and local sea-level components
Global Sea-level
projections
Suva tide gauge data
OBJECTIVE 2:
Case Study Applications
• Collect data, develop baselines
• Test and validate methods and models
• Conduct integrated V&A assessments
OBJECTIVE 2 (con’t.)
Case Study Applications
Natadola Beach
Viti Levu, Fiji
• Tourism site
• Undeveloped
• Erosion and storm
surge risks
Veivatuloa
Navua
• Traditional Fijian village
• Experiencing erosion
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Town site
Growth potential
Low-lying
Riverine and coastal flood risks
OBJECTIVE 2 (con’t.)
Case Study Applications
Aitutaki, Cook Islands
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Rapidly developing tourism
Experiencing erosion
Storm surge risks
Risks to water supply
OBJECTIVE 3:
Capacity Building
• In-country training and participation
• Transfer of data and tools
• Incorporate methods and models into the USP
V&A Programme
OBJECTIVE 3 (con’t)
Stakeholder engagement:
Country Team Approach
AIACC support
National team
Scientific
expertise
Local council
& leaders
Data
Other climate
projects (e.g.
CIDA)
Methods &
tools
SIS09 Team
Aitutaki Climate Change Team
Improved local, risk-based assessments
A locally-driven adaptation process
Private sector
- SIS09 SUMMARY OF
PROGRESS
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Developed framework for local-scale modelling
Developing sea-level scenario generator
Identified case study sites
Begun process of stakeholder engagement
Identified local risks and priorities
Data collection in progress