Transcript the Powerpoint - Central Gulf of Mexico

Begin with introductory video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zH-dBsbOxbY
Climate Change & Sea-Level Rise
Along the Gulf of Mexico
A COSEE Online Institute
Presentation
Dr. E.D. Estevez
[email protected]
Mote Marine Laboratory
Today’s Topics
Sea level background
Signs of sea-level rise
Projections of future sea-level rise
Visualizing sea level now and in the future
Sea-Level Variations
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Waves
Tides
Storm Surges
Seiches
Intra-Annual Cycles
Multi-Annual/Decadal Cycles (El Niño, AMO)
Planetary Cycles (Milankovitch Cycles)
Anthropogenic Forcing
http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/
In the Context of Climate Change…
The main contributors to sea level and sealevel rise are:
1. Steric effects- the expansion of the
world ocean as it warms
2. “New water”- addition of water from
ice sheets and glaciers
Other factors are also involved.
Subsidence
Subsidence, or the sinking of land, has multiple
causes.
Without sea-level rise, a subsiding coast
experiences a relative rise in sea level.
Subsidence added to sea-level rise enhances the
rate of relative sea-level rise.
Subsidence contributes to the loss of coastal
wetlands, but
Coastal wetlands and forests are also affected by
the present rate of sea-level rise, even in the
absence of subsidence.
Effects: Sea Level Rise
WHAT WE KNOW
Many tidal wetlands are keeping pace with sea level changes. Some
are accreting vertically, migrating up-slope, or both.
Open estuarine waters, brackish marsh, and mangroves in south
Florida estuaries are expanding.
Wetlands elsewhere are perishing as estuarine and coastal forests and
swamps are retreating, replaced by marsh vegetation.
Even at constant rates of sea level rise, some tidal wetlands will
eventually “pinch out” where their upslope migration is prevented
by upland defenses such as seawalls.
Effects: Sea Level Rise
WHAT IS PROBABLE
Major spatial shifts in wetland communities, including exotic species
invasions, will occur.
More lowland coastal forests will be lost during the next one to three
centuries as tidal wetlands expand across low-lying coastal areas.
High diversity wetlands in tidal freshwater reaches of coastal rivers
will be replaced by low diversity wetlands.
Most tidal wetlands in areas with low freshwater and sediment
supplies will “drown” if sea level rise outpaces their ability to
accrete vertically.
Effects: Sea Level Rise
WHAT IS POSSIBLE
More than half of the saltmarsh, shoals, and mudflats critical to birds
and fishes foraging in Florida estuaries, could be lost during the
21st century.
Recreational and commercial fish species that depend on shallow
water, or intertidal and subtidal plant communities, are
vulnerable.
The loss of tidal wetlands will result in dangerous losses of the coastal
systems that buffer storm impacts.
Lido Key, Sarasota County, Florida
Wednesday 09/16/09 11:05 am (2.4 ft. astronomical)
Gulf Waters Flooding Storm-water Drains at Normal High Tide
We Already Adapt
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Seawalls, Docks and Piers
Bridges and Causeways
Stormwater Systems
Beach Policies and Practices
Wetland Creation
Building Heights
Disaster Preparedness
www.floridaoceanscouncil.org
Sea-Level Rise Visualization for
Alabama and Mississippi.
http://gom.usgs.gov/slr/slr.html
This pilot project is a collaborative effort of the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Coastal Services Center, Mississippi-Alabama Sea Grant
Consortium, and U.S. Geological Survey.
Insert second video with pan of
beach
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jWVG2AyI1nQ
Mobile State Docks, Mobile River
http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/data_menu.shtml?stn=8737048 Mobile State Docks
Used with permission by Sarasota Magazine
www.sarasotamagazine.com
For Local Help
Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium
• http://www.lumcon.edu
Gulf Coast Research Laboratory
• http://www.usm.edu/gcrl
Dauphin Island Sea Lab
• http://www.disl.org
NOAA CO-OPS Water Level Program
• http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov
Thank You, and Thanks to…
Brian M. McCann, Ph.D.
Center for Educational and Training Technology
Multimedia Development Group
Mississippi State University
Rusty Holmes and Joe Nickelson
Mote Marine Laboratory
Barbara Lausche
Mote Marine Policy Institute
Sarasota Magazine
Anonymous reviewers
…and the many public agencies from whom slides were borrowed.