Transcript CLIMATOLOGIA

CLIMATOLOGIA
Prof. Carlo Bisci
CC: Impatti
Ambiente fisico
Direct and indirect effects of non-climate drivers
Glaciers
Areal extent of Chacaltaya Glacier, Bolivia, from 1940 to 2005
Water
Historical and recent
measurements from Lake
Tanganyika, East Africa:
(a) upper mixed layer
(surface water)
temperatures;
(b) deep-water (600 m)
temperatures;
(c) depth of the upper
mixed layer. Triangles
represent data collected
by a different method.
Error bars represent
standard deviations
Impact of human activities on freshwater resources and their
management, with climate change being only one of multiple pressures
Change in annual runoff relative to 1900-70, in percent
Erosion and sediment transport
•change in the erosive power of rainfall;
•changes in plant canopy caused by shifts in plant biomass production associated with
moisture regime;
•changes in litter cover on the ground caused by changes in plant residue decomposition
rates driven by temperature, in moisture-dependent soil microbial activity, and in plant
biomass production rates;
•changes in soil moisture due to shifting precipitation regimes and evapotranspiration rates,
which changes infiltration and runoff ratios;
•soil erodibility changes due to a decrease in soil organic matter concentrations (which lead
to a soil structure that is more susceptible to erosion) and to increased runoff (due to
increased soil surface sealing and crusting);
•a shift in winter precipitation from non-erosive snow to erosive rainfall due to increasing
winter temperatures;
•melting of permafrost, which induces an erodible soil state from a previously non-erodible
one;
•shifts in land use made necessary to accommodate new climatic regimes.
Annual crop water demand and water supply for Trout Creek, Okanagan region,
Canada, modelled for 1961 to 1990 (historic) and three 30-year time slices in
the future. Each dot represents one year. Drought supply threshold is
represented by the vertical line, maximum observed demand is shown as the
horizontal line
Relative costs per unit of water saved or supplied in the Okanagan region,
British Columbia
Impact of population growth and climate change on the number of people (in
millions) living in water-stressed river basins (defined as per capita renewable
3
water resources of less than 1,000 m /yr) around 2050
Cross-scale issues in the integrated water management of the Colorado River
Basin
Some adaptation options for water supply and demand
(the list is not exhaustive)
Potential contribution of the water sector to attain the Millennium Development
Goals.
Illustrative map of future climate change impacts on freshwater which are a
threat to the sustainable development of the affected regions. Background map:
Ensemble mean change of annual runoff, in percent, between present (1981 to
2000) and 2081 to 2100 for the SRES A1B emissions scenario.
Sea
Long-term changes in the mean number of marine zooplankton species per association in the North Atlantic from
1960 to 1975 and from 1996 to 1999. The number of temperate species has increased and the diversity of coldertemperate, sub-Arctic and Arctic species has decreased in the North Atlantic. The scale (0 to 1) indicates the
proportion of biogeographical types of species in total assemblages of zooplankton.
Shoreline
Selected global non-climatic environmental and socio-economic trends relevant
to coastal areas for the SRES storylines.
Regional and local deviations are expected.
Main climate drivers for coastal systems, their trends due to climate change,
and their main physical and ecosystem effects. (Trend: ↑ increase; ? uncertain;
R regional variability).
Increases in the height (m) of the 50-year extreme water level.
(a) In the northern Bay of Bengal
(b) Around the UK for the A2 scenario
under the IS92a climate scenario in
2040-2060 (K – Kolkata (Calcutta), C – in the 2080s
Chittagong)
Flooding around Cairns, Australia during the >100 year return-period event
under current and 2050 climate conditions based on a 2xCO2 scenario.
Relative vulnerability of coastal deltas as shown by the indicative population
potentially displaced by current sea-level trends to 2050.
(Extreme = >1 million; High = 1 million to 50,000; Medium = 50,000 to 5,000).
Summary of climate-related impacts on socio-economic sectors in coastal
zones.
X = strong; x= weak; – = negligible or not established.
Estimates of the population (in millions) of the coastal flood plain in 1990 and
the 2080s (following Nicholls, 2004).
Assumes uniform population growth; net coastward migration could
substantially increase these numbers.
Indicative estimates of regional exposure as a function of
elevation and baseline (1995) socio-economics.
MER – market exchange rates
Estimates of the average annual number of coastal flood victims (in millions)
due to sea-level rise. Assumes no change in storm intensity and evolving
protection. Range reflects uniform population growth. Base= baseline without
sea-level rise; aSLR = additional impacts due to sea-level rise.
Real estate damage costs related to flood levels for the Rio de la Plata,
Argentina
Health effects of climate change and sea-level rise in coastal areas.
Key hotspots of societal vulnerability in coastal zones.
Causes, selected consequences and the total costs of an assumed sea-level
rise, for developing and developed countries, and as a global total.
Recent extreme events:
lessons for coastal adaptation to climate change
•An effective early warning communication and response system can reduce
death and destruction;
•Hazard awareness education and personal hazard experience are important
contributors to reducing community vulnerability;
•Many factors reduce the ability or willingness of people to flee an impending
disaster, including the warning time, access and egress routes, and their
perceived need to protect property, pets and possessions;
•Coastal landforms (coral reefs, barrier islands) and wetland ecosystems
(mangroves, marshes) provide a natural first line of protection from storm surges
and flooding, despite divergent views about the extent to which they reduce
destruction;
•Recurrent events reduce the resilience of natural and artificial defences;
•In the aftermath of extreme events, additional trauma occurs in terms of
dispossession and mental health;
•Uncoordinated and poorly regulated construction has accentuated vulnerability;
•Effective disaster prevention and response rely on strong governance and
institutions, as well as adequate public preparedness.
Major impediments to the success of adaptation in the coastal zone.
Selected tools that support coastal adaptation assessments and interventions.
Evolution of planned coastal adaptation practices.
Selected information on costs and benefits of adaptation.