Transcript Practical local government strategies

Sustainable Infrastructure and
Environment
Practical Local Government Strategies
Steve Gawler
ICLEI Oceania
14 May 2010
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We can’t keep on building higher and higher levees
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What is ICLEI Oceania?
Local government association and agency
→Not-for-profit
→Membership-based
→International
Oceania Secretariat
Dedicated to Local Action for Sustainability
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ICLEI Oceania’s Work on
Climate Change
• Mitigation: Cities for Climate Protection
Campaign (since 1997), new CCP Integrated Action
program 2010
• Adaptation:
– CCP Adaptation Initiative (2007-2009)
– Local Government Climate Change Adaptation Toolkit
(2008/09)
– Adaptive and Resilient Communities (ongoing)
– Indonesian Cities Climate Alliance (ongoing)
– Resilient Cities 2010 Conference
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Sustainable infrastructure?
Sustainability is the capacity of cities and towns to meet
the needs of current generations without compromising
the ability of future generations to do the same.
Sustainable development must simultaneously protect
and enhance the Earth’s life support systems. A
continuing process, this requires the sharing and
management of economic, environmental and social
resources equitably within the community.
ICLEI Oceania 2010
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Adaptation and Resilience
Elements of Resilience
• Redundancy – substitutable services when one system
is disrupted
• Flexibility – to absorb sudden shocks and slow onset
challenges, avoiding catastrophic failure
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Adaptation and Resilience
• Capacity to reorganize – to change and evolve rather
than returning to previous methods
• Capacity to learn – to internalize and respond to
previous experiences, avoid repeating mistakes
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Gold Coast City Adaptation
Principles
Infrastructure
Proactively plan and deliver infrastructure that supports
the development of resilience in communities and is
capable of adapting to a changing climate during its
lifecycle or at the time of asset renewal
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So, we can’t keep on building higher and higher
doorways!
Fail-safe or Safe-fail?
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What is the ICLEI Climate Change
adaptation planning process?
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ARC Program Framework
Assess Increase in
Adaptive Capacity and
Resilience
Phase 1:
Establish the
Context
Phase 5:
Review and
Restrategise
Systematically
Reconsider Options
ICLEI Capacity
Building Program:
Phase 4:
Monitor and
Report
Implement Adaptation Action
Plan
Adaptive and
Resilient
Communities
(ARC)
Phase 3:
Develop
Adaptation
Action Plan
Analysing Climate Change
Risks &Opportunities
Assessing Council’s
Adaptive Capacity
Develop Options &
Assumptions
Phase 2:
Prioritise
Areas for
Action & Set
Goals
Translating Priorities into
Actions
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ARC Phase 1: Establish the Context
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
1.10
H p.2
Establish an adaptation working group
Teleconference: Objectives of ARC Program
Climate change adaptation communications brief
Council questionnaire on climate change adaptation
Council document mapping
ARC Workshop 1: Establish the Context
Internal stakeholder analysis
Local climate change impacts research inventory
External stakeholder analysis
CCA context review
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Technical
facilitator
Council
Primary
Contact
ARC Wiki
Council
Working
Group
Council Secondary
Contact
External Stakeholders
ICLEI
Oceania
Councilors
ARC Facilitation Approach
Council Administration
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Climate Change Scenarios
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Climate Scenarios
• Coherent, plausible description of a future
state of the climate
• Means of understanding the potential
impacts of climate change
• Not a prediction of the future climate, but
based on certain assumptions
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Scenarios - Why Bother?
Select one or two scenarios to:
• Provide a consistent basis for assessing climate
risks
• Narrow down adaptation options for planning and
decision-making (‘What are we adapting to?’)
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Climate Change Scenario B1
H p.4
Lower emissions growth scenario
Assumption:
• Rapid shift to less fossil-fuel intensive industries.
Expected change:
• Weak growth in CO2 emissions until 2040, then
decline.
• Global temperature increase relative to 1990 of
1.8°C (1.1 to 2.9°C) is likely
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Emissions Growth Scenarios
Source: Victorian Government DSE, 2008.
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Climate Change Scenario A1B
H p.4
Medium emissions growth scenario
Assumption:
• Balanced use of different energy sources – not just
fossil fuels.
Expected change:
• CO2 emissions increase until 2030 and begin to
decline around 2050
• By 2100 a global temperature increase of 2.8°C (1.7
to 4.4°C) is likely.
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Emissions Growth Scenarios
Source: Victorian Government DSE, 2008.
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Climate Change Scenario A1FI
H p.4
Higher emissions growth scenario
Assumption:
• Strong economic growth based on continued
dependence on fossil fuels
Expected change:
• CO2 concentrations more than triple, relative to preindustrial levels, by 2100.
• A global temperature increase of 4.0°C (2.4 to 6.4°C)
is likely.
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Emissions Growth Scenarios
Source: Victorian Government DSE, 2008.
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Observed Emissions
Source: Will Steffen/Department of Climate Change (2009): Climate Change 2009 - Faster Change and More Serious Risks
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What Are We Adapting To?
• Observed global warming:
– Observed change in average global temperature
1900-1999: +0.7˚C
– Observed average annual temperature difference in
1998-2007 when compared with 1961-1990
period: +0.6˚C
• Projected mid-range global warming:
– By 2030: +0.9˚C
– By 2070: +2.6˚C
– By 2100: +3.7˚C
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Risk & Opportunities
Management Framework
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From Impacts to Risks & Opportunities
Objectives:
• To become familiar with key projected impacts
• To understand which impacts pose risks to
which organisational goals
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Why Risk Management?
Climate Variable
Temperature
Expected change:
Increase in # of hot days
Impact
Higher electricity demand
Climate change per se may not
be a ‘risk’, but…
…expected changes lead to
specific impacts…
…that pose a risk to (or an
opportunity for) an organisation
achieving its goals.
Risk
Inability to meet peak demand
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Scope of the Risk Management Process
Geographic scope:
– All of your LGA?
– Only coastal or alpine areas?
Organisational scope:
– Risks to council?
– Community risk?
Time horizon considered:
– Until 2030?
– Until 2070?
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Initial council risk assessments
Kogarah
Priority
1st priority
2nd priority
Type of impact
Increase in extreme weather events (storms)
Sea level rise
3rd priority
Expected lack of surface water
Localised flooding problems
Temperature increase
Canada Bay
Holroyd
Priority
1st priority
Type of impact
Temperature increase
2nd priority
Sea level rise
3rd priority
Drought / water availability
Priority
1st priority
2nd priority
Type of impact
Increase in extreme weather events (storms)
Increase in heatwaves
3rd priority
Water availability and food security
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Conceptual Modelling
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Conceptual Modelling: Objectives
• Establishing the CONTEXT:
– Which climate change impacts need to be
managed by council?
– What effects will these climate change impacts
have on council and the community?
– Which key elements of council’s operations can
be used to address these impacts and effects?
– Where are the main gaps of addressing climate
change impacts at council?
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Conceptual Modelling: Step 1
For each impact, choose Target Condition
• A state that you want your council or community
to achieve in relation to a particular climate change
impact
Adaptability
to
coastal
erosion from
sea-level rise
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Conceptual Modelling: Step 2
Choose Key Elements (Council Functions)
Choose Council functions that would need to be involved in
achieving the Target Condition
Natural
Resource
Management
Key Element
Adaptability
to
coastal
erosion from
sea-level rise
Target
Condition
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Conceptual Modelling: Step 3
Identify Direct Factors
Processes or activities that need to be undertaken to contribute
to Target Conditions
Can be things council is already doing OR things it should be
doing
Coastal
habitat
extension
Natural
Resource
Management
Direct Factor
Key Element
Adaptability
to
coastal
erosion from
sea-level rise
Target
Condition
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Conceptual Modelling: Step 4
Identify Indirect Factors
Processes or activities that influence or determine the
success of a Direct Factor
Acquisition of
private land
Species
conservation
program
Indirect Factors
Coastal
habitat
extension
Natural
Resource
Management
Direct Factor
Key Elements
Adaptability
to
coastal
erosion from
sea-level rise
Target
Condition
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Conceptual Modelling: Step 5
Identify Conditions
Broader issues that affect the entire municipality
Can be social, economic or environmental
• Sea-change
culture
• Tourismdependent
economy
Conditions
Acquisition of
private land
Species
conservation
program
Indirect Factors
Coastal
habitat
extension
Natural
Resource
Management
Direct Factor
Key Elements
Adaptability
to
coastal
erosion from
sea-level rise
Target
Condition
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Conceptual Modelling: Step 6
Risk & Opportunities Analysis
• Existing controls
• Current gaps
• Leverage partnerships, e.g.
cooperation with other ARC
councils?
• Sea-change
culture
• Tourismdependent
economy
Conditions
Acquisition of
private land
Species
conservation
program
Indirect Factors
= Existing controls
= Current gaps
= Leverage partnerships
Coastal
habitat
extension
Natural
Resource
Management
Direct Factor
Key Elements
Adaptability
to
coastal
erosion from
sea-level rise
Target
Condition
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H p.1
ARC Program Framework
Assess Increase in
Adaptive Capacity and
Resilience
Phase 1:
Establish the
Context
Phase 5:
Review and
Restrategise
Systematically
Reconsider Options
ICLEI Capacity
Building Program:
Phase 4:
Monitor and
Report
Implement Adaptation Action
Plan
Adaptive and
Resilient
Communities
(ARC)
Phase 3:
Develop
Adaptation
Action Plan
Analysing Climate Change
Risks &Opportunities
Assessing Council’s
Adaptive Capacity
Develop Options &
Assumptions
Phase 2:
Prioritise
Areas for
Action & Set
Goals
Translating Priorities into
Actions
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Some final thoughts
Future sustainable infrastructure planning has to be done in
context of Climate Change and the principles of resilience
and sustainability:
•redundancy
•flexibility
•capacity to reorganise,
•capacity to learn
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Some final thoughts
Council must own the process and outcomes
Complex, multi-dimensional, challenging, new paradigms
Political dimensions
Time and resources required, especially challenging for
small councils – clusters?
External support?
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Thank you
CCP Adapt program and modules available in 2010 - 2011
ICLEI Oceania
www.iclei.org/oceania
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