Transcript Document
Ecosystem Based Modeling for Sustainable Regional Development of the Marine and Estuarine Resources in Coastal NSW Philip Gibbs Karen Astles The Program & Linkages • DPI/CSIRO 5 year collaboration ‘Umbrella program’ • Comprehensive Coastal Assessment • Enhanced decision support tools for NRM action plans (phase 2) • Northern Rivers CMA (CLAM project) • Initial project in Clarence Estuary • CSIRO National Research Flagships ‘Wealth from Oceans’ theme Objectives • Modelling frameworks for a multiple – use management of coastal environments • Develop and apply models of the ecosystem and human activities • Design and evaluate potential ‘monitoring programs’ Broad “Whole of Landscape” Modelling Program Outline Management Objectives Building virtual ecosystem (Operating model) Management strategy/ scenarios Atlantis Biogeochemical model Policy formation Management responses Presentation of outputs to decision makers Data Monitoring/ adaptive management impacts Human activities Ecosystem Modelling & Monitoring Management Interface Between Stakeholders Management Science Climate Change • National Adaptation Framework • Coastal Vulnerability Assessment • • • • Increasing Temperature Rainfall:- variability, total amount, ENSO Sea level rise Increasing ocean acidity Likely Impacts • Ocean current changes • Storm surges • Freshwater flow to estuaries • • • • Habitat change Recruitment patterns fish & invertebrates Biodiversity, Threatened species, Marine pests Socio economic effects Tools • Spatial biogeochemical model with coupled physical transport ‘ATLANTIS’ – Physical box model in 3 dimensions – Nutrient flow (nitrogen silica), mass balance of functional groups (physical, O2 CO2, living, detritus) – Trophic dynamics (food web) of primary & secondary producers / consumers (phytoplankton to dolphins) – Growth, mortality, recruitment, migration, consumption, excretion, predation, habitat dependency • Computational limit “What if” Scenarios • Timeframe 1950 to 2030 • Fisheries management – catch, effort, gear, zoning, closures, by-catch • Climate change • Land-use • Increasing population and urbanisation • Socio economic change The Future • Finer resolution of the shelf model nearshore component • Explicit representation of Marine Parks • Second estuary with a focus on urban rather than agricultural inputs • Coupling of estuary and shelf models • Documentation of the “what if” outputs Is Ecosystem Modelling Possible? Plants and Animals Geophysical environment Politics People (social) Economics Thank You