Transcript Oxfam Unwrapped Christmas Campaign 2007-08

Global Food Security:
Looking for the next Green
Revolution
Richard Gower, Oxfam
A quick reminder
Some definitions:
Food security exists when all people, at all times,
have physical, social and economic access to
sufficient, safe and nutritious food which meets their
dietary needs and food preferences for an active and
healthy life.
Food insecurity exists when people do not have
adequate physical, social or economic access to food
as defined above.
The supply problem
Climate change impact on domestic output
2030
(percentage changes relative to 2030
baseline)
Brazil
Wheat
CAfrica
Maize
WAfrica
Maize
EAfrica
Maize
China
Paddy
Rice
OEAsia
Paddy
Rice
Climate change
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
Increasing population
Changing
consumption
patterns
The affordability problem
A lot of people can’t afford food right now.
If prices rise to ration supply…
Proportion of income spent on food in selected countries:
If food prices double, consumption halves in Zambia, but
falls by just 5% in North America
Where do the hungry live?
The Yield Gap (tonne/ha)
8
7
Wheat
6
Corn
5
4
3
2
1
0
European
Union
Sub-Saharan
Africa
Why?
Sustainable Intensification
Sustainable Intensification
Market and government failures:
• Access to appropriate technology;
• Access to markets (inputs and outputs);
• Access to credit;
• Access to land;
Sustainable Intensification
“The projects analysed in this study have resulted in more
than 10 million farmers adopting a wide variety of
approaches and technologies for sustainable
intensification of their agricultural systems. As a result,
food production has increased substantially.
However, the challenge is now to spread effective
processes and lessons to many more millions of farmers
and pastoralists across the whole of the continent”
Foresight Project on Global Food and Farming Futures: Sustainable intensification in
African Agriculture