Transcript Tim Benton - Managing Risks

Managing the risks on the
global food system from
extreme weather driven by
climate change
Tim Benton
UK Champion for Global Food
Security & Professor of Ecology,
University of Leeds
[email protected]
@timgbenton
waste
Our food system is shaped by movement of food
Complex supply
chains
Defra (2012) Food Statistics Pocketbook
Kit kat
•
Milk chocolate (66%) (sugar, cocoa butter, cocoa mass, dried
skimmed milk, whey powder, butterfat, vegetable fat,
lactose, emulsifier (soya lecithin), flavouring), wheat flour,
sugar, vegetable fat, cocoa mass, yeast, raising agent
(sodium bicarbonate), salt, calcium sulphate, flavouring
Soy movements
http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/net-trade-flows-in-soya (2012)
Global homogenisation:
concentration of production
Foley et al 2011
Statistical “map” of global diets
https://www.pinterest.com/fhhas/dies-das/
Nearly 2/3 of the world’s calories come from wheat, rice
and maize; 86% comes from wheat, rice , maize, sugar,
barley, soy, palm, potato
Puma et al 2015
Global
connectivity
through trade:
risks in both
movements of
goods and price
connectivity
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Supply chain
logistics: risks
and resilience
THE WORLD IS CHANGING
Extreme weather is getting
more extreme
Patricia Oct 24 2015
CO2 fertilisation
Production
shocks from
RECENT history
weather
Yields
maintained;
nutritional
quality may
decline
No CO2 fertilisation
Yields
Yields
impacted
more
Model-based distributions of global calorie-weighted yield of maize, soy, wheat, and
rice for the historical (1951-2010) and future with (top row) and without (bottom
row) the effects of fertilization from increasing atmospheric CO2 included. The
estimated magnitude of a current 1-in-200 year event is indicated by the horizontal
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Recommendations
1
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Better understand the risks
Our knowledge is limited by
available model simulations.
Modelling limitations also
constrain our ability to
understand how production
shocks translate into short run
price impacts.
Adapt agriculture for a
changing climate
Increases in productivity,
sustainability and resilience to
climate change are required.
“Sustainable and resilient
intensification”
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3 Improve the functioning of international
markets; e.g.:
• Improving the quality and accessibility of key
market data, not least estimates of public and
private stockholdings. Building on the recent
success of the Agricultural Market Information
System will be important in this regard.
• Agreeing international rules to limit the scope
for unilateral export controls in the agriculture
sector.
• Developing mechanisms to increase the
flexibility of biofuel mandates.
• Research to identify critical geographical
pinch points in international trade and
approaches to address their vulnerability, such
as investment in infrastructure or plurilateral
agreements to maintain sea lanes for example.
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4 Bolster national resilience to market
shocks
The precise mix of appropriate policy
measures will vary according to national
context (particularly important for
import dependent SSA).
5 Explore opportunities for coordinated
risk management
As knowledge on risks emerges, develop
contingency plans and establish early
warning systems with agreed response
protocols, and explore opportunities
include coordinated management of
emergency and/or strategic reserves.
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Thank you!
[email protected]
www.foodsecurity.ac.uk
Bojana Bajzelj (2015)