Transcript The impacts on crop production of a range of climate policies

The avoided impacts of climate
change on crop production
Tom Osborne
Thanks to:
Simon Gosling, Gillian Fraser, Helen Greatrex,
Tim Wheeler, Nigel Arnell
Emissions scenarios
CO2 concentration
A1B, and AVOID mitigation scenarios
MAGICC
@ 2030,2040,2050,…
Global warming
Local change in
climate
Future crop yields
Regional crop production
Pattern-scaling based upon GCMs
echam5, hadcm3, ipsl, cgcm31,ccsm30
GLAM crop model at 0.5 resolution
Maize, soybean, wheat
∑(Yield
GLAM x
Areaobserved)
Global-GLAM crop model
• Original GLAM developed by Challinor et al (2004).
Process-based crop growth and development with
daily timestep.
• Crops: soybean, maize, wheat.
• Climate: 0.5 resolution using CRU based climate
data. Daily weather generator.
• Extent: suitable grid cells and sowing date
determined by separate algorithm.
• Varieties: 3 for maize and soybean, 1 for wheat
• Rain-fed simulation only. No irrigation.
1961-90 baseline:
soybean
Wheat
Business-as-usual impact of climate change by 2050 on wheat production
Percentage of 2050 “business-as-usual” impact avoided with scenario: A1B-2016-5-L
CO2 fertilisation alters effectiveness (relative and absolute) of AVOID scenarios
Maize
Soybean
Conclusions
• Wheat
– Effect of mitigation varies regionally
– CO2 fertilisation influences effectiveness of mitigation
– Interaction with climate change
• Maize
– Relative effectiveness of scenarios unaffected by
GCM or adaptation (as represented here)
• Soybean
– Mitigation effectiveness insensitive to CO2 and
adaptation
– Positive CC impacts (S Asia) reduced by mitigation
Thank you
1961-90 baseline: maize
Spatial variability
Inter-annual variability
1961-90 baseline: wheat