Transcript Document

Tokyo Workshop on An African Green Revolution.
Planned Research Session
Agro-climate and Green Revolution:
Evidence from India with Implications for Africa
Dec. 7th 2008
Takuji Tsusaka and Kaliappa Kalirajan
Overview: Drivers of Success in India
• Successful Regions
 New agricultural policy toward technology development in the context
of the successive droughts in the mid ’60s in the northwest region.
 High irrigation ratio
Influence of British Colonization
 Introduction of tube well
 Importance of road conditions
• Further Development
1980s: Development of Modern Varieties
 Introduction of small scale irrigation with pumping.
 Rural poverty reduction
Rationale for Comparison of between India and Africa
Similarities
(1)
Area harvested (%)
 India consists of 29 states of
diverse agro-climates
(1) Similarity in Cropping Patterns
(2) Diversity in agro-climate
(3) Dominance of peasants
India
(1987)
SSA
Asia
(2000(20002004Avg.) 2004Avg.)
100%
8
20
80%
43
Sorghum
Bajra (Pearl Millet) Field
Millet
60%
Rice
40%
Wheat, Maize,
Barley and Others
20%
0%
Sources: The India Database; WDR 2008
 The agricultural production environments in some parts of India are
similar to those in Africa, which implies a technology transferability
Rationale for Comparison between India and Africa
Similarities
(2) Agro-Climate Diversity
•
Geographic area: 328 million ha, from 8oN to 36oN in latitude, between 68oE and 98oE in
longitude, the altitude varying from the mean sea-level to the highest mountain ranges of the
world.
•
Rainfall: India contains the station with the highest mean annual rainfall in the world
(Cherrapunji in Assam) and also dry, semi-desert area in Rajasthan. In parts of Rajasthan and
the Deccan, the variability of rainfall is more than 100 per cent of the mean.
Temperature: It varies greatly geographically as well as seasonally. Northern and central parts
of India in the pre-monsoon months the maximum temperatures of over 40oC are reached over
a large area. Frost occurs in winter in the plains, as far south as a line drawn through Madhya
Pradesh and may be heavy in Kashmir and areas north of Punjab.
•
(3) Dominance of Peasants
•
The peasantry ranges from the relatively affluent Punjabi farmers who operate with a high
input intensity in agriculture to the subsistent farmers of eastern and central India. Between
these two extremes, various intensities of cultivation are practiced. The fact is that the average
farm-size in most areas is lower than that in most tropical countries.
Reference: Krishiworld
District-level Climate Diversity in India
Precipitation (July)
Temperature (July)
# of districts
# of districts
80
100
60
80
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
90
0
75
0
60
0
45
0
30
0
15
0
0
20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33
°C
mm
Sources: The India Database for 1987
Rather varied precipitation and temperature levels across districts.
Comparison of Average Cereal Yields between India and Africa
(Ton/ha)
4.0
3.5
Southeast Asia
3.0
India
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
Sub-Saharan Africa
0.5
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1973
1971
1969
1967
1965
1963
1961
0.0
Despite the similarity in cropping patterns,
there is a significant gap in yield growth.
Source: FAOSTAT
Yield Growth in Major Crops
India vs. Africa
India
Sub-Saharan Africa
Yield (Ton/ha)
Yield (Ton/ha)
3.5
Rice
3.0
Wheat
2.5
3.5
3.0
2.5
Wheat
2.0
2.0
Rice
1.5
1.5
Maize
Maize
Millet
Sorghum
1.0
19
61
19
64
19
67
19
70
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
20
06
20
06
20
03
20
00
19
97
19
94
19
91
19
88
19
85
19
82
19
79
19
76
19
73
0.0
19
70
0.0
19
67
0.5
19
64
0.5
19
61
Sorghum
Millet
1.0
Source: FAOSTAT
The yields for dominant crops in Africa, sorghum and millet, are not inferior to
those in India, indicating the limited transferability of technology from India.
Aside from rice, it may be better to focus on the technology on maize.
Research Questions to be Answered
Climate
MVs
Water
Agricultural
Productivity
Soil
Road
Q1. Is the soil quality a critical factor? It it is, to what extent? Isn’t there any
possibility for breakthrough?
Q2. Is there a possibility of growth under poor road condition and lack of
irrigation?
Q3. Are climate instability and adverse climate, which are common in SSA, a
stumbling block? How is it comparable to India?
 Is the role of climate becoming less important as technology improves?
Underlying Assumption:
Before the introduction of MVs, factors affecting crop yields were not essentially different
between SSA and India.
 Reliable panel data will be useful to explore these issues quantitatively.
Role of Climate Factors
Preliminary results of a cross-sectional regression of the major crop yields
on rainfall and temperature using district-level data in 1987 in India.
Rainfall
Temperature
Pearl Millet
Insignificant
Negative
Sorghum
Insignificant
Negative
Maize
Negative
Negative
Wheat
Positive
Positive
Rice
Negative
Positive
 One example of future findings.
Construction of Panel Data
Agricultural
IP/OP
(5 major crops)
Edaphic
(Iype/Aquifer
thickness/
p-H/Topsoil
thickness)
Infrastructure
(Irrigation/
Road)
Other Controls
(Popden/agL/cul
L/wage/literacy)
Climate
(Temperature/
Rainfall)
2000s
|
1989
1988
|
1956
District-level
(271 districts)
Some input prices
can be a proxy
Avg. of 30yrs
Given the panel,
you can see the
fluctuation
Probably it is not so difficult to find recent data, but
problems may be the unavailability of consistent district-level data over the long period.