Transcript CDM project cycle and India`s institutional process

Vulnerability and adaptation to
climate variability and water
stress in Uttaranchal state, India
Ulka Kelkar, TERI
International workshop on climate change
and sustainable development
7-8 April 2006, New Delhi
Water and agriculture



Greatest vulnerability in
unsustainably managed
ecosystems that are
currently water stressed
(IPCC)
General reduction in
quantity of available runoff
in all river basins, except
Narmada and Tapi
(Natcom); Ganges and
Krishna basins show major
declining trends (Indo-UK)
Increased summer
snowmelt and decline in
snow storage in dry season

MDG target
Halve by 2015 the
proportion of people
who suffer from
hunger
Halve proportion of
people without safe
drinking water by
2015

X Plan goals
4% pa growth of
agricultural GDP
[3.2% in 1980-96,
2.6% in 1996-02,
1.8% in 2002-04]
Projected impact of climate change on
rainfall in Lakhwar sub-basin
Frequency analysis of daily rainfall intensities over two time periods
180
160
Light intensity rainfall that get
lost in satisfying soil moisture
needs as well as in meeting
ET demands increase in
number
Frequency (in days)
140
120
154
138
127
108
109
106
100
96
84
80
76
60
Heavier intensity rainfall that
generate runoff reduce in
number
40
20
0
62
58
14
2
1
00
5
3
11
3
2
00
1
00
3
1
0
4
3
0
7
1
01
10
7
01
5
01
16
12
2
1
79
77
62
50
49
43
47
40
40
35
23
19
28
24
18
14
10
3
2
1
34
24
17
7
4
> 200 150- 140- 130- 120- 110- 100- 90- 80-90 70-80 60-70 50-60 40-50 30-40 20-30 10-20 5-10
200 150 140 130 120 110 100
1-5
<1 0.1
Rainfall intensity
July (2041-60)
July (1961-98)
August (1961-98)
August (2041-60)
Narula and
Bhadwal
(2003)
Research questions



What is the capacity of households in the
study region to cope with current climatic
variability and water stress?
Are their responses only temporary coping
measures, or would help them adapt in the
long run?
What are the possible scenarios of
interventions that can help adapt to water
stress due to climate change?
Study region
Upper Yamuna sub-basin
SHIMLA
UTTARKASHI
#
Simla
#
2
1
Solan
#
SOLAN
#
#
Chakrata
Yashwant Nagar
4
##
#
SIRMAUR
Dadahu
#
DEHRADUN
#
5
##
Koti
#
8
Lakhwar
YAMUNA NAGAR
Tajewala
#
Lakhwar watershed
Damta
6
7
#
Outlets
#
Linking stream added Outlet
Streams
Subbasins
Digitized streams
Yamnotri
3
#
##
9
#
#
TEHRI GRAHWAL
Mussorrie
Dehradun
0
20
40 Kilometers
A journey to Lakhwar
Agriculture in Uttaranchal hills





Fragmented terraces - “Equitable, if
impoverished, land distribution”
Only 14% irrigated area in hill
districts; 46% in foothills and plains
Tradition of water harvesting –
neglect and disrepair
Springs are drying up - “too little –
too much”
Migration – lack of labour
Identification of water
stressed areas
Water balance modelling
SWAT – surface runoff, soil moisture development and
lateral runoff, and groundwater recharge
MODFLOW – groundwater movement
Areas 1 and 2 are most water stressed
Chhotau
Lakhwar
Preliminary observations from
participatory case studies
Lakhwar
Chhotau
Caste stratification and land holdings
Harijan, 5.331
Brahman,
0.000
Hindu, 0.951
Joshi,
19.6182
(a) Lakhwar village
Average landholding size 2.5 ha
Vaishya,
0.800
Harijan, 8.774
Rajput,
68.692
(b) Chhotau village
Average landholding size 0.8 ha
Community perceptions about climate
and water stress
% of respondents
Rainfall has declined over the last 10-15 years
Onset of rainfall has become late
Onset of rainfall has become erratic





Lakhwar
90 %
65 %
32 %
Chhotau
87.5 %
25 %
69 %
Earlier one could not see the stars throughout shravana
Maize should have been planted by the beginning of June but the
rains have been coming late every year
As children, as soon as we saw rain, we would bring down the
livestock from the hilly slopes, to save them from being
drowned. Now the streams are all dry.
But for many years there has been no snowfall in December.
There is late snow in January-February which melts away and
does not feed into the streams.
35-40 years it used to snow for stretches of 2-4 days when
livestock were kept in the house and men would stay indoors and
play cards. The snow was like manure – knee deep snow that
covered the ground and retained soil moisture underneath.
Stresses and coping measures



Migratory stresses
+ price incentives
Cropping pattern
changed from “12
seeds” to maize
and cash crops
Economic
pressures



Low returns
High aspirations
Take loans,
10
Leave village,
0
Plant less
waterintensive
crops, 10
Irrigate fields,
2
Find other
jobs, 17
Sell land, 1
Sell
Sell livestock,
valuables, 0
1
Ecological
pressures



Dependence on
rainfall
Reduced livestock
ownership
Reduced pulses
cultivation
Average annual hh income reported
Lakhwar Harijan – USD 428
Lakhwar Rajput – USD 1621
Chhotau Harijan – USD 380
Chhotau Brahmin – USD 408
Group discussions and timelines
Coping with
current water
levels
Enhancement
of water supply
Alternatives to
agriculture
Adaptation interventions identified by agricultural
households in Lakhw ar
Grow pulses for self consumption and enhancement of soil
nitrogen
Make and sell organic manure like Dhanpau women’s society
Grow fruit-bearing trees (e.g. reetha which doesn’t need much
water but has commercial value for soaps and shampoos) on
barren land
Resume cultivation of mundhwa which can be used in baby
food and wine, and jhangura which is used in pillows
Teach agriculture, horticulture, and dairy farming in high school
Extension workers should visit to provide expert advice e.g.
farmers could grow 2-month hybrid maize instead of 3-month
maize to cope with the late onset of the monsoon
Reforestation of the hills following the example of Mussoorie.
Incentives to village panchayats in the form of recognition or
rewards for reforestation or preventing forest fires.
Rainwater harvesting to serve needs in pre-monsoon months
Completion of the Lakhwar dam will not bring irrigation to the
village but will raise the water table, enhance soil moisture, and
rejuvenate forests
Consolidation of land is essential for commercial plantations
and fruit orchards that are key to the prosperity of Himachal
Pradesh
Primary education standards need to be drastically improved;
the key issue is regular attendance of teachers who are
unwilling to live in remote areas.
Vocational training
Promotion of tourism
Adaptation interventions identified by
agricultural households in Chhotau
Cultivation of medicinal / aromatic plants,
horticulture on barren patches
Rainwater harvesting storage tank
(This can be supplemented by constructing
irrigation channels, check dams, and
percolation ponds)
“Education and employment”
Vocational training – sewing, needlework
Matchstick factory
Value addition enterprises (like packaging,
juicemaking, processing of medicinal plants)
Insights and scope for further work

Insights




Mismatch between top-down policy prescription
and ground-level realities and aspirations
Key determinants of vulnerability e.g. caste (and
not land holdings) limits adaptation options
Coping measures may increase vulnerability –
inadequate to deal with prolonged stress
Scope

Pilot testing of participatory approach - Programme
of participatory research on adaptation responses
evolved by affected communities
Thank you
START, IIASA, Packard Foundation
SMTA (Society for Motivational Training and Action)
People of Lakhwar and Chhotau