Transcript ADAPT, Assessment & design for adaptation: a - BASIC

ADAPT
Assessment & Design for Adaptation:
a Prototype Tool
Ian Noble, World Bank
[email protected]
&
Fareeha Y. Iqbal (Consultant, World Bank)
[email protected]
What is it?
A screening & design tool
Who is it for?
Project developers, field staff,
multilateral orgs. and NGOs
It is not a community level decision making tool !
What does it do?
• Provides a quick, initial check of potential issues that
might arise in project design or implementation
• Guides project developers to appropriate knowledge and
experience
• Raises awareness on the risks that climate change
poses to development
What do project managers need to know?
• issues climate change might pose for their
projects
• where to access more specific information
about these
• some suggestions on how the project
could be made more robust in the face of
expected changes in climate
What do they often get?
• vague answers that emphasize “uncertainties”
• asked to provide highly quantitative data so that
models can be run to compute answers for them
– models usually still under development,
though…
• asked to come back in a year or two when
adaptation pilot project is complete and results
have started to be processed…
What ADAPT offers
• project screening based on existing knowledge
• expert system that identifies key activities that might be
sensitive to climate variability and change
• qualitative climate change data bases combining models
and current trends
• qualitative assessment of risks and opportunities
• pointers to appropriate literature, tools, projects and
experts
Levels of Advice Provided
adaptation issues are important and further
follow up is strongly recommended
some concerns, which should be checked
not enough known to assess
no adaptation issues foreseen
positive action for adaptation
A framework for a
screening & design
tool
Document database
Project database
Experts
Additional tools
Location
Climate
parameter
Projected direction
of climate change
User Guidance on
risk avoidance and
adaptation options
(eg average rainfall, rainfall
variability, temperature etc)
Activities
Climate
parameter
Climate
sensitivit
y
Climate sensitivity
for an activity
Risk
elements &
Location
Direction of
climate change
(increase, no
change, decrease,
unknown)
Technically complex : Multiple models –
changing data bases
What project managers
need to know
A framework for a
screening & design
tool
Document database
Project database
Experts
based on expert advice
Additional tools
Location
Climate
parameter
Projected direction
of climate change
User Guidance on
risk avoidance and
adaptation options
(eg average rainfall, rainfall
variability, temperature etc)
Activities
Climate
parameter
Climate
sensitivit
y
Direction of
climate change
(increase, no
change, decrease,
unknown)
Climate sensitivity
for an activity
Risk
elements &
Location
A framework for a
screening & design tool
Document database
What does the user see?
Project database
Experts
Additional tools
Location
Climate
parameter
Activities
A series
of
(eg average rainfall,
rainfall
variability, temperature etc)
questions
Climate
parameter
about
their
Climate
sensitivit
project
y
Projected direction
of climate change
Leading to
…
User Guidance on
risk avoidance and
adaptation options
Climate sensitivity
for an activity
gdfsgfd
gdfsgfd
Direction of
climate change
(increase, no change,
decrease, unknown)
gdfsgfd
gdfsgfd
Relevant
Risk
guidance
&
toelements
…
Location
Assessment & Design for Climate Change – a
Prototype Tool -- ADAPT
Help about the
question and
about each
option
Ability to
change ones
mind
• Printable outputs
• Database of relevant local experts
• Can be periodically updated
• Simple structure