Transcript Adaptation to Climate Change

Adaptation to
Climate Change
Ian Noble
CC team
Slide 1:Climate change is already
affecting natural and social
systems
Slide 2: The poor will face the greatest
challenges from climate change.
100%
The rate has double in this decade
80%
Percentage affected
2 Billion people in developing
countries were affected by a climate
related disaster in the 1990s.
LDC
60%
Dev'ing
CIT
40%
Dev'ed
20%
4,000
Number affected (Millions)
0%
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
3,000
Dev'ed
CIT
2,000
Dev'ing
LDC
1,000
-
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
40 to 80% of the population in
developing countries versus a few %
in more developed countries
Slide 3: Climate variability is
already a major impediment to
development.
Ethiopia
A water rich
developing
country, but
with GDP still
tied to yearly
rainfall
variations
25
20
15
10
5
0
%
0
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
-20
1982
-5
-10
-15
-40
rainfall variability
-60
-20
GDP growth
-25
Ag GDP growth
-80
-30
year
Preliminary results from : A Country Water Resources Assistance Strategy for Ethiopia
From Claudia Sadoff
Ethiopia
Slide 4: Including climate variability gives
a different picture of growth prospects
3.50
•Smoothed
(average rainfall)
•A simulated 2year drought
•Realistic
variability
3.00
2.50
Annual Rates
Model of 12
years of growth
using
Smoothed
2.00
Drought
1.50
Variability
1.00
0.50
0.00
GDP Grow th rate
Ag GDP
Non-Ag GDP
Slide 5: % change in runoff by 2050
Many of the major “food-bowls” of the world are projected to become
significantly drier
Wheat
now being
grown in
areas 2 C
cooler and
4.5 C
warmer
than in the
1920s.
Shows
rapid
adaptation
in wheat
Pew
WHO
estimates
that
>150,000
people are
dying each
year due to
climate
change
Slide 8: Climate change is a
development issue – right now
Slide 9: A climate risk approach
Climate risk management means that we
should assess and act upon,
the threats and opportunities that result from
both existing and future climate variability,
including those deriving from climate change.
Slide 10: What can be done?
• Change farming systems
• Strengthen infrastructure
• Conserve natural buffers (eg
forests including mangroves)
•
•
•
•
Store more water
Improve disaster preparedness
Provide insurance?
Migrate
But all have downsides
Slide 11: How are we going?
A few developed countries are
considering comprehensive adaptation
plans
Several studies suggest that about 40%
of ODA projects & development loans
are subject to some climate risk.
But few (2%) consider climate risk in
their design
But everyone now wants to “mainstream”
adaptation
Slide 12: Pitfalls to mainstreaming
adaptation
• Not appreciating the immediacy
• “Projectisation” of adaptation
– Sees adaptation as a series of projects but
separates adaptation form core development
planning
– Often embroils adaptation in institutional
rivalries
• “Poker chip” in the climate negotiations
• Seeking the ideal at the expense of
the pragmatic
– E.g. Seeking only adaptation – mitigation
synergies
• Endless loop of “better information”
– Downscaling & impact modelling
Slide 13: An adapted world
• A warmer world
• More climate extremes and
disasters
• Greater preparedness to deal
with them
• More climate & water
awareness (& more dams)
• Changed agricultural zones
• Greater threats to and
management of natural habitats
• Physical or natural barriers?
• Forced migration