Transcript Regional Climate Information needs for impact and adaptation work

Image size: 7,94 cm x 25,4 cm
Regional Climate Information
Needs for Impacts and
Adaptation Work: Experiences
from Asia
G Srinivasan
Regional Integrated Multi-hazard Early warning System
WCRP Workshop on Regional Climate: Facilitating the production of climate
information and its use in impact and adaptation work, 14-16 June 2010
RIMES

(RIMES) was formally established on 30 April 2009,
with the signing (at Male) of an international
cooperation agreement by Cambodia, Comoros, Lao
PDR, Maldives, Bangladesh, Philippines and
Seychelles

Registered as Regional Organization with UN (14th
September 2009)

Twenty-one (21) other countries are in various stages
of consideration and approval for signing the
cooperation agreement

RIMES aims to provide regional early warning
services, and build capacity of its Member States in
the early warning of tsunami and hydrometeorological hazards.
Adaptation – the definition

Adjustment in natural or human
systems


in response to actual or expected
climatic stimuli or their effects,
which moderates harm or exploits
beneficial opportunities
Source: ISDR, 2006
Requirements for climate information

The climate information requirements are different
at various levels of action

At the national level, requirements vary from
ministry to ministry even if they all contribute to a
common focus area (e.g. food production under the
umbrella of poverty reduction)

Within the national and provincial agencies,
information requirements are guided by the
duration of planning horizon, and vary from the
Organizational/Ministerial level to implementation
level.

Communities and individual requirements - differ
with livelihoods and circumstances
Global mean warming projected for three time-slabs relative to
1980-99 from the IPCC multi-model ensemble mean
(modified from Wilby et al., 2009)
Time-slabs
Mean warming for three
SERS emission scenarios
(A2, A1B and B1)
Likely use for community
level action after suitable
downscaling
0.66
Most suitable for use in
development projects aimed
at building adaptive
capacities as they are of 3-5
years duration
Also useful for long-term
planning of provincial
government authorities for
their 5-10 year plans
2046-2065
1.56
As background information
for macro-level long-term
planning strategy
2080-2099
2.52
2011-2030
Mega projects
Commonly Sought information at sites

Are the heavy rainfall events on the increase?

Is there a shift in the onset of rainy season?

Are dry-spells going to be longer ?

Will the check-dams fill up this season?

Increase the level of the embankments or build new
embankments?

Prepare for floods during every rainy season?

Install landside warning system with community
participation?
ENSO and extreme events in Indonesia
Year (s) and ENSO
Drought severity and
location
Fires and location
1982-83, strong ENSO
Widespread – severe
East Kalimantan
1986-87, strong ENSO
South and east – moderate
All Kalimantan
1991-94, strong ENSO
Widespread – severe
Sumatra, Kalimantan,
Java
1997-98, strong ENSO
Widespread – severe
Sumatra, Borneo
generally
2002_03 weak ENSO
South and east-Moderate
2006-07 Weak ENSO
South and East Moderate
2009-
South and east-Moderate
weak ENSO
ENSO has a strong link with rainfall over most
locations, therefore information on future
behavior of ENSO on different time-scales and its
regional manifestation is important for Asia
Indonesia Example – Agriculture Sector

West Java receives high level of rainfall and allows
double (sometimes even triple) paddy cropping.

In contrast, East Java’s climate is drier and is more
suitable only for crops that have lower water
requirement than paddy, such as maize.

During ENSO episodes, both East and West Java are
affected adversely, and the impacts manifest via lower
than normal rainfall, delayed rainfall onset, or early
termination of rains.

Adaptation projects in West Java – when should
planning for sustained drier than normal conditions
start? Current strategy is better use of seasonal
forecasts
In many instances Climate Information
requirement for adaptation projects at
community level are seasonal outlooks
Location
Angat
multipurpose
reservoir,
NWRB,
Philippines
Liquica
District,
TimorLeste
Rainfall season
July Aug peak: If
forecast normal
Wet season peak:
Oct. to Jan.
Climate
Problem
Climate info
needed
Decision point
Optimal use of
water; avoid
flooding
Seasonal rainfall
characteristics
Release water
in May to
accommodate
higher inflow
Planting at the
wrong time lead
to heavy crop
damages
Onset of rains,
likelihood of false
start,
withdrawal,
residual soil
moisture
Beginning and
end of crop
season
Coastal Vulnerability and Mountainous
regions

Future frequency and intensity of
tropical cyclonic storms

Information on rates of Sea-level
rise

Glacial Lake Outbursts related
flooding
Temperature Increase during 20712100 for A2 and B2 Scenarios using
downscaled results from PRECIS forced
with ECHAM
1990-2010
Orange – 10-25%; Red – 25 – 50%
2010 -41
2041 - 71
Ecuador, collaboration with CIIFEN

Simulations from only one model available

No validation/evaluation of model performance, hence
no idea of uncertainty

Insufficient observational data to undertake this
exercise

ENSO changes not captured adequately in global
models – hence local rainfall variability estimates
uncertain
Gaps and issues to be
addressed
Lack of clear assessment of user
requirements

The information requirements of users across
different sectors are not understood with any
clarity now.

An assessment of the various information
requirements across sectors is a must for
generation of suitable information as different
users would require climate information differing
in their timescales as well as their resolutions
Climate information to cater to users’
needs

This level of customization for users is not in place
currently.

There is a temporal mismatch between scenarios and
the budget and planning considerations of users and
decision makers.

Location specificity – this is being taken care of by
regional models, but there is still need to improve on
reliability (error bounds) at the spatial and temporal
scales required.
Interpretation and translation of
climate information for users


The translation of climate information into thresholds for
incorporation by sectors is lacking – this means
understanding decision environments and evolving
thresholds that are location and sector specific
Climate change information should be interpreted and
translated in terms of sector-specific thresholds that
are jointly determined by both the climate community and
sectoral users (e.g. agriculture, water management) for it to
be useful to policymakers and to those who are involved in
adaptation planning and implementation of options.
Managing climate risks by connecting science, institutions, and
society
Global,
Regional
Model
Products
Regional
Products
Probabilistic
location
specific
hydro-met &
geo
information
700.0000
Risk Thresholds
Total
Hydrograph
600.0000
500.0000
Surface
Response
400.0000
300.0000
Baseflow
200.0000
Impact Outlooks
100.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.5000
1.0000
1.5000
2.0000
2.5000
3.0000
3.5000
Hazard
Derivatives
4.0000
Risk Management
tools
RIMES/ADPC, Natl. DRR
Agencies, Communities
ECMWF, NCEP,
CMA, UKMO
Need for linked action – regional modeling
projects that link with impact
assessment/adaptation actions
National level
State/Provincial
level
District level
Communities and
Individuals
Current Climate Variability
Future Climate Change
Impacts/Adaptation
Weather scale
Seasonal
< 5 yrs
5 – 10 yrs
20 – 30 yrs
Climate information requirement for adaptation actions
Climate Risks, Disaster Risk and threats of
climate change



In the context of Southeast Asia, and in most tropical climates for
that matter, distinguishing between short-term (DRR/CRM)
and long-term (adaptation) is difficult because at present,
there is no widely accepted methodology for disassociating the
impacts of climate change from “normal” climate variability in the
short to medium term.
the projected impacts of climate change on agriculture tend to be
amplifications (sometimes reduction) of the substantial challenges
that climate variability already imposes (Hansen, et al 2007).
The same observation applies to other natural resource-base
livelihoods as well.
Issue of proving “Additionality”



Climate change adaptation planning processes tend to
be based on the assumption that it is possible to
isolate climate change-induced risk pattern vis-à-vis
natural climate variability
Anthropogenic climate change impose additional
burden that makes the achievement of development
gains more difficult, additional investments/
development aid are necessary.
Regional modeling to contribute to clearly assess and
resolve this issue
Conclusions




Time-scales of two to three decades into
future are important
Improving reliability and quantifying
uncertainties at regional scales
Information requirements are specific –
creating institutional linkages with
modeling institutions and institutions
implementing adaptation projects
Follow an integrated approach for
managing risks from current climate
variability and future climate change
…thank you