Transcript What is a scenario?

2nd Workshop on scenarios of
climate change in Taita Hills
Wundanyi 22nd -23rd July 2015
What is a scenario?
Scenarios are stories about how the
future might unfold that can be told
in both words and numbers.
A dynamic system……
RESILIANCE
CLIMATE
COMMUNITY
CROP
LAND
COVER/
BBFOREST
FOOD
SECURITY
WATER
PEST
ECOSYSTEM
SERVICES
Scenario A
Scenario B
20 yrs ago
Present
Baseline
RCP4.5 (20412070)
RCP8.5 (20412070)
Remarks
Mean annual temperature (C)
16.7-24.7
18.5-26.4
19.1-27.1
HOTTER
Temperature coolest quarter
14.5-22.5
16.3-24.3
16.9-24.9
HOTTER
Temperature warmest quarter
18.4-26.3
20.2-28.1
20.8-28.8
HOTTER
Mean annual rainfall (mm)
488-793
534-841
535-826
WETTER
Rainfall driest quarter
12-31
10-28
9-25
SIMILAR/DRIER
Rainfall wettest quarter
201-327
250-364
236-352
WETTER
Annual moisture index (rainfall/PET)
0.29-0.54
0.31-0.53
0.30-0.52
Number of arid months
7-9
7-9
8-9
SIMILAR
SIMILAR/MORE-ARIDMONTHS
WHAT IF… ? TEMPERATURE and
RAINFALL INCREASES, DRY SEASON IS
DRYER
WHAT IF…? INTER-ANNUAL VARIABILITY
INCREASES (RAIN SEASON MAY
BEANTICIPATE/POSTPONED)
Which changes on
main resources
supporting
livelihoods would
you expect?
Increased water volume
Increased crop yield, Occurrence of foods
Improved livestock
Reduced human wildlife conflict
Increased forest products
Inadequate water volume
Low crops yield
Emaciated livestock, low productivity
Human wildlife conflicts
Escalating food prices
Charcoal production affected
Which resources
would become
scarcer or more
available?
More available:
Water; More springs, shallow water,
Crop yield increased: food crops
Forest cover and so forest products
Scarce: Crops failure, Water scarcity
All vary
Available: Charcoal, Firewoods, Timber, Drought
tolerant crops
Scarce:
Food become more scarce; Charcoal business
will be more unreliable
Which sectors
would be mostly
affected?
Positive:
Agriculture boosted, Marketing, Livestock,
Nutrition
Negative:
Transport, Tourism: Infrastructure destroyed
(related to Floods)
Health: water borne diseases increased
Health of crops: eg. Tomatoes diseases,
water-borne disease
All vary
Agriculture: Crop failure: maize is affected by
rainfall variability, while tree crops (bananas)
and cassava, potatoes (less water users) can
survive. Drying up of water sources
Forestry: Deforestation, Increased pressure to
forest products
Livestock: products decreasing, livestock body
condition deteriorating.
SOLUTIONS: CHANGES, Resistance, Both
Land management
Technology
Increase of vegetation cover Proper water storage,
Putting storage tanks
Governance
DIVERSIFICATION OF
LIVELIHOOD
GROW DROUGHT
TOLERANT CROPS ***
(cassava, potatoes, millet)
Post-harvest Practices
Common marketing
strategies, eg. use of
cooperatives
Water harvesting structures Value addition
Effective law enforcement
organs
Plant trees, more forest
cover
More reliable weather
station
More storage facilities **
INTEGRATED APPROACH
INTRODUCTION OF
ADAPTIVE CROPS
EMBRACING NEW
TECHNOLOGIES, EG. CHECK
DAMS
USE OF GREEN HOUSES
Train farmers on post
harvesting management
Min. of Health to be on a
high alert on water borne
diseases
Mulching to reduce evotranspiration from the soil
Use of terraces to control
soil erosion
Tree crops (banana) more
resistant to variability
EFFECTIVE WATER USAGE
EG. DRIP IRRIGATION
ALTERNATIVE LIVELIHOOD
EG. BEEKEEPING
ENERGY EFFICIENT EG.
IMPROVED JIKO
Dairy value addition to our
farm product
How Taita Hills may look like in the future?
HIGH
POPULATION
INCOME
HIGH
HIGH
LOW
LAND
USE
CHANGE
HIGH
BIODIVERSITY
TASK 2 Positioning the main sectors affected by climate change IN
THE QUADRANTS ACCORDING TO ECONOMY AND ENVIRONMENTAL
IMPACTS, in the different scenarios
Economy: production/income,
expenditure
RICH
DEGRADED
HEALTHY
Environment:
land use, water use
POOR
TASK 2 Identifying main sectors affecting land use cover/changes
and positioning IN THE QUADRANTS ACCORDING TO ECONOMY
AND ENVIRONMENTAL VALUE
• IDENTIFY SECTORS
• POSITION THE SECTOR IN THE CURRENT SITUATION (TAKE NOTES OF THE DRIVERS FOR
THE CURRENT POSITION)
• POSITION THE SECTOR IN 2025 IN A NO ADAPTATION SCENARIO (TAKE NOTES OF THE
DRIVERS OF TRAJECTORIES)
• POSITION THE SECTOR IN 2025 IN A ADAPTATION SCENARIO (TAKE NOTES OF THE
DRIVERS OF TRAJECTORIES)
Example: Farming, current position and NO ADAPTATION
Economy: production/income,
expenditure
RICH
DEGRADED
HEALTHY
Environment:
land use, water use
POOR
Example: Farming, current position and ADAPTATION
RICH
Economy: production/income,
expenditure
HEALTHY
DEGRADED
Environment: land use,
water use
POOR
What is behind the positioning of the sector?
What is the balance between economy and
environment (land use)?
What is the current situation? What will happen?
Increase/decrease, improvement/ worsening
What could move the sector to the future positions,
In Scenario 1: NO ADAPTATION?
In Scenario 2: ADAPTATION?
SECTORS
Agriculture
Livestock
Water
Management
Forestry
Conservation
Health
DRIVERS/FACTORS
DETERMINING
CURRENT SITUATION
ADAPTATION 2030
NO ADAPTATION 2030
TASK 3 - LAND COVER/USE CHANGES:
Identifying possible land cover/use changes, their drivers and
the spatial rules guiding them.
LAND USERS/MANAGERS
BUSINESSMEN
FORESTERS
LIVESTOCK
KEEPERS
AUTHORITIES
(LOCAL, REGIONAL,
NATIONAL)
FARMERS
LAND USES
ENERGY
BIOMASS
(CHARCOAL)
CROPLAND
WOODLAND
AGRICULTURE
SHRUBLAND
THICKET
LIVESTOCK
FORESTS
LAND COVERS
PLANTATIO
N FORESTS
INFRASTRUCTURES
ARTIFICIAL,
BARE LAND,
ROCKS
WATER
TAITA HILLS FROM THE SKY
TAITA HILLS FROM THE SKY: THE CHIESA TRANSECT
TAITA HILLS FROM THE SKY: REPRESENTATION OF LAND COVERS
LAND COVER classes
LAND COVER/USE classes
LAND COVER/USE classes
LAND COVERS LAND USES
LAND USERS/MANAGERS
CROPLAND
Farming
Farmers, ..
SHRUBLAND
Livestock grazing, lowlands
Livestock keepers
THICKET
Livestock grazing, medicinal
herbs, charcoal (midland)
WOODLAND
Mixed exogeneous (production)
and indigenous (conservation)
FOREST
PLANTATIONS
Timbers, but for hydrological
protection on the slopes (from
forest service)
NATURAL
FORESTS
County and national government,
mostly protection use.
LAND COVER/USE CHANGES
START WITH BAU SCENARIO
1 WILL THE CLASS A CHANGE?
2 WILL CLASS A CHANGE TO CLASS B ….or C ….or F?
WHAT IS MORE POSSIBLE, FREQUENT?? CHOSE A
PROBABILITY RANK
3 WHICH ARE THE DRIVERS OF THE LAND COVER
CHANGE?
4 WHERE ARE CHANGES OCCURRING?
REPEAT 1 TO 4 FOR GREEN ECONOMY SCENARIO
LAND COVER/USE CHANGES
EXAMPLE: WOODLAND
1 WILL WOODLAND CHANGE IN THE TWO
SCENARIOS?
2 WHAT IS THE PROBABILITYTHAT WOODLAND
WILL CHANGE/CONVERTED TO ANOTHER CLASS?
0 = NOT POSSIBLE
1 = LOW PROBABILITY
2 = MID PROBABILITY
3 = HIGH PROBABILITY
4 = VERY HIGH PROBABILITY
NO CHANGE
SMALL CHANGE/VERY RARE
MEDIUM CHANGE/SOMETIMES
LARGE CHANGE/OFTEN
VERY LARGE CHANGE/VERY FREQUENT
LAND COVER/USE CHANGES
EXAMPLE: WOODLAND
 WHAT IS THE LIKELIHOOD THAT WOODLAND
WILL CHANGE/CONVERTED TO …..?
Plantation forest? Forest plantation? Shrubland?
Cropland? Grassland?
Wetland, Built up areas, Inland water
0 = NOT POSSIBLE
1 = LOW PROBABILITY
2 = MID PROBABILITY
3 = HIGH PROBABILITY
4 = VERY HIGH PROBABILITY
NO CHANGE
SMALL CHANGE/VERY RARE
MEDIUM CHANGE/SOMETIMES
LARGE CHANGE/OFTEN
VERY LARGE CHANGE/VERY FREQUENT
LAND COVER/USE CHANGES
EXAMPLE: WOODLAND
4 WHY?
DRIVERS
5 WHERE? SPATIAL RULES: ..near roads,
settlements,.. rivers, ..cultivated land, …on low
land? On uplands? outside protected areas? near
grazing areas?
In certain sites, or villages?
WHERE ON THE MAP??
OUTPUTS
FROM CLASS
TO CLASS
PROBABILITY
SCORE
Woodland
Cropland
….
Shrubland
……
Plantation
forest
……
WHY?
DRIVERS
WHERE?
TASK 4: FACTORS DETERMINING CROP SUITAIBILITY AND OTHER CHANGES
TASK 4: VALIDATING PAST TREND OF LAND COVER CHANGES