Transcript impacts, adaptation and mitigation in British

Climate change: impacts, adaptation and
mitigation in British woodlands
Dr. Mike Morecroft
Head of Climate Change, Natural England
Natural England
.....to ensure that the natural environment is
conserved, enhanced and managed for the
benefit of present and future generations...
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Advice to government
Species and habitat protection
Incentives for environmental management
Management of nature reserves
Access to nature
British Woodlands
Woodland fragmentation & microclimate
GB Forest Cover: 13%
(England 9%)
Fragmented
Forest cover in Britain
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c. 80% land area before clearance
c. 50% Roman period
5% by 1900
13% at present
Ancient Semi-Natural Woodlands
• Management
history
• Continuity of
forest cover
since 1600
• c. 10% of
woodland
Pressures on British forest
ecosystems
agriculture
habitat loss (and gain)
fragmentation
intensification
air pollution
development
invasive species
climate change
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disease?
time
Climate Change Impacts
http://www.lwec.org.uk/resources/reportcards/biodiversity
Climate change impacts on
woodlands
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Large scale relationships to temperature
England: change driven by extreme events
Summer drought more important than
temperature?
Drought sensitive trees: beech, birch,
sycamore
Ground flora resistant to change
Invertebrates (incl. pests) responsive to
change
Complex interactions
Seasonal timing (phenology) is
changing
Spring is coming earlier
• Mean change 11.7 days (1976 – 2005)
• 725 taxa across different groups
• 83.8% of trends were advance
Thackeray et al. (2010)
Distributions are changing
UK Animal Groups
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Shift
northwards
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Hickling et al. 2006
Indirect effects of climate change
• Changing forest management
• Changes in agriculture
• Changing catchment management
• Carbon management
• Renewable energy
Climate Change mitigation
Forests and climate change
mitigation
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UK woodland stores: c.790 MtC (640 MtC
soils and litter)
Sequestration: c.15 MtCO2 in 2007 (c. 3%
UK emissions)
Afforestation potential: 10% emissions by
2050 (16% forest cover)
Renewable fuel and materials
Read et al. (2009). Combating climate change – a role for UK
forests. The Stationery Office, Edinburgh
Semi-natural Woodlands
Climate change mitigation
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Increase woodland area
Bring more areas into active management
Dilemmas for conservation:
Which species? (Eucalyptus?)
Intensity of management
Potential for ‘win-win’
Climate Change Adaptation
Adaptation for conservation
build resilience
Adaptation
accommodate change
Resilience
• Reducing other threats
• Larger areas of habitat / larger populations
• Maximise heterogeneity in microclimate /
soils
• Specific adaptations e.g. planting drought
tolerant species.
Morecroft et al. (2012) Resilience to climate change: translating principles
into practice. Journal of Applied Ecology, 49: 547-551.
Accommodating Change
• Flexibility in designations
• Review approach to non-native species and
genotypes
• Increased landscape permeability
• Transplantation?
Resilience or accommodation?
Changing approach as the climate changes
1°C >
2°C >
3°C >
resilience
accommodation
4°C
enable persistence ---> accept change ---> promote
transformation
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Ecosystem based
adaptation
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Conservation can help human society
to adapt to climate change
Woodlands can...
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Contribute to flood and water resource
management
Prevent soil erosion
Provide shade or shelter for people and livestock
New approach to land
management?
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Landscape scale
Multiple benefits
Wytham Woods
• 400 ha
• Mixture of ancient, secondary and
plantation woodland
• Also grasslands and farmland
• Owned by Oxford University
• Long history of research
Environmental
Change Network
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Cairngorms
• Detecting &
understanding change
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Glensaugh
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Sourhope
• Physical and biological
monitoring
• Research links
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Hillsborough
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Moor House - Upper
Teesdale
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Y Wyddfa
(Snowdon)
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Drayton
• Started 1992
Rothamsted
Wytham
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North Wyke
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Alice Holt
Porton
See Morecroft et al (2009) Biological Conservation
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B
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Yadvinder takes over.