Transcript Nagel-bridging-the-divide-v2 - San Juan Headwaters Forest Health

Designing Forest Adaptation
Treatments for Climate Change
Through Manager-Scientist
Partnerships in Southwest CO
Linda Nagel, Mike Battaglia,
Lance Asherin, Molly Roske
September 9-10, 2016
Recent changes in climate for Southwest
Colorado
What are we seeing now?
– Warmer temperatures occurring in all seasons
– Warmer temperatures in winter/spring are
impacting snowpack totals at lower elevations
– Snowmelt has shifted 2 weeks earlier
Source: Bidwell and Rangwala
Projected temperatures to increase
Source: Bidwell and Rangwala
Projected precipitation variable
Source: Bidwell and Rangwala
What actions can be taken to
enhance the ability of a system to
cope with change
and
meet goals and objectives?
Adaptation is the adjustment of systems
in response to climate change.
Ecosystem-based adaptation activities
build on sustainable management,
conservation, and restoration.
Adaptation is the adjustment of systems
in response to climate change.
•
•
What do you value?
How much risk are you willing to
tolerate?
Uncertainty and Risk
Design actions that are robust across a
range of potential future conditions
Climate-Driven Changes
Desired Future Condition
TIME
Climate-Driven Changes
Desired Future Condition
Climate
Change
Trajectory
TIME
?
Adaptation Options
Resistance
Resilience
Transition
(Response)
Manage for Persistence:
Ecosystems are still recognizable as
being the same system (character)
Manage for Change:
Ecosystems have fundamentally
changed to something different
Adaptive Silviculture for Climate Change Project
Flathead NF/
Coram EF
Chippewa NF/
Cutfoot EF
Second College Grant/
Hubbard Brook EF
ASCC is creating robust, science-based
examples of how climate change adaptation
can be integrated into forest management
planning and on-the-ground actions
WHAT APPROACH BEST PREPARES FOREST
ECOSYSTEMS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE?
San Juan NF
J.W. Jones Ecological Research Center
RESISTANCE – maintain relatively unchanged
conditions over time
RESILIENCE – allow some change in current
conditions, but encourage eventual return
to original conditions
A Collaborative Project Among:
• US Forest Service Research and Development (NRS, PNW,
PSW, RMRS, SRS)
• US Forest Service National Forest System (Chippewa, San Juan,
Flathead, White Mountain)
• Universities (CSU, UMN, MTU, UMT, UVM, Dartmouth)
• Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science
• Colorado Forest Restoration Institute
• Non-governmental partners
(J.W. Jones Ecological Research Center)
TRANSITION – actively facilitate change to
encourage adaptive responses
Adaptive Silviculture for Climate Change (ASCC):
A National Network
PROJECT GOALS
Populate a multi-region study design with ecosystemspecific climate change adaptation treatments using
input from an expert panel of regional scientists and
local managers
Workshop to
develop desired
future conditions
March 2014 – Pagosa Springs
Provided participants
with information on:
•
•
•
•
Potential changes in
climate
Tree species ecology
Disturbance ecology
Adaptation framework
• Warmer
• Earlier
snowmelt
• Decrease in
snowpack
below
2,500
meters
Reynolds et al. 2013
Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa)
Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii)
Aspen (Populus tremuloides)
White fir (Abies concolor)
Photo: Steve Hartvigsen, USDA Forest Service
San Juan National Forest
Gambel Oak
(Quercus gambelii)
Photo: Steve Hartvigsen,
USDA Forest Service
San Juan National Forest
Shade tolerance
Intolerant
Intermediate
Tolerant
Niinemets, U., Vallardes, F., 2006. Tolerance to shade, drought, and waterlogging
of temperate Northern Hemisphere trees and shrubs. Ecol. Monogr.
76, 521–547 (Ecological Archives M076-020-A1).
Heat tolerance
Intolerant
Intermediate
Tolerant
Decker, K. and R. Rondeau. 2014. San Juan / Tres Rios Climate Change Ecosystem
Vulnerability Assessment. Colorado Natural Heritage Program, Colorado State University,
Fort Collins, Colorado.
Drought tolerance
Intolerant
Intermediate
Tolerant
Niinemets, U., Vallardes, F., 2006. Tolerance to shade, drought, and waterlogging
of temperate Northern Hemisphere trees and shrubs. Ecol. Monogr.
76, 521–547 (Ecological Archives M076-020-A1).
Insects
Needle miners
Western spruce budworm
Douglas-fir tussock moth
Bark beetles
Mountain pine beetle
Fir engraver
Disease
Dwarf mistletoe
Root disease
Fir broom rust
Disturbances
Fire
Drought
Warm dry mixed conifer forests
Mean Fire Interval = 10 yrs
No Fire free period
Mean Fire Interval = 30 yrs
Fire free period = 50 yrs
Mean Fire Interval = 24 yrs
Fire free period = 61 yrs
Korb et al. 2013
Photos: Steve Hartvigsen, USDA Forest Service, San Juan National Forest
58 ft2/ac
(13.3 m2/ha)
114 ft2/ac
(26.1 m2/ha)
Westerling et al. 2006
Adaptation Options
Promote
change
Transition
(Response)
Resilience
Maintain
current
conditions
Resistance
Reduce climate
change impacts
Facilitate adaptive
responses
Identifying Adaptation Tactics
Vulnerability
assessments,
scientific literature,
and other resources
1. DEFINE area of
interest, management
objectives, and time
frames.
5. MONITOR and
evaluate effectiveness
of implemented
actions.
2. ASSESS climate
change impacts and
vulnerabilities for the
area of interest.
Adaptation
Strategies and
Approaches
4. IDENTIFY and
implement adaptation
approaches and
tactics.
3. EVALUATE
management
objectives given
projected impacts and
vulnerabilities.
Swanston and Janowiak 2012: www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/40543, Janowiak et al. 2014
What we think we know…
• Warmer, drier conditions in the future
• Seasonality of precipitation and earlier
snowmelt will affect hydrology and plant
response
• More fire
• More insects and disease
• Forests are more susceptible (drought, I/D,
fire) at high densities
Resistance Treatment
Maintain relatively unchanged conditions
50
30
Diameter Class (inches)
DFC/Goal
• Maintain current proportions of
Ponderosa (PP), Douglas-fir (DF),
White Fir (WF), Aspen (AS)
• Basal area range: 57 to 78 ft2/ac
5
0
25
-3
5
20
-2
0
-2
15
-1
10
5
0-
5
30
-3
0
-3
25
-2
20
-2
15
-1
10
5-
0-
5
0
0
0
5
10
10
10
5
20
10
20
40
5-
Trees per acre
30
5
Trees per acre
40
Aspen
Douglas-fir
Ponderosa
White fir
-3
Aspen
Douglas-fir
Ponderosa
White fir
50
POST-treatment Resistance
60
30
PRE-treatment Resistance
60
Diameter Class (inches)
Tactics
• Reduce BA by 40-60% by thinning
• Retain priority PP>DF>WF
• Keep large PP/DF, old PP/DF/WF
• Even spacing
Resilience Treatment
Allow some change, eventual return to reference
50
30
Diameter Class (inches)
DFC/Goal
• Increase drought-tolerant species
• Relative densities: 45-75% PP,
5-35% DF, 0-15% AS, 0-10% WF
• Clumpy, multi-cohort structure
• Basal area range: 57 to 78 ft2/ac
(range: 0 to 122)
5
0
25
-3
5
20
-2
0
15
-2
5
-1
10
5-
5
30
-3
0
25
-3
5
-2
20
-2
15
-1
10
5-
0
0
5
0
10
10
5
10
10
20
5
20
40
0-
Trees per acre
30
0-
Trees per acre
40
Aspen
Douglas-fir
Ponderosa
White fir
-3
Aspen
Douglas-fir
Ponderosa
White fir
50
POST-Treatment Resilience
60
30
PRE-treatment Resilience
60
Diameter Class (inches)
Tactics
• Reduce BA by 40-60% by
thinning
• Favor priority PP>DF>WF
• Create openings up to 1 ac
• Leave legacy groups, clumps
Ponderosa Pine 2060
White Fir 2060
Gambel Oak 2060
Aspen 2060
Transition Treatment
Actively facilitate change to encourage adaptive responses
50
30
Diameter Class (inches)
DFC/Goal
• Increase drought-tolerant species
• Increase PP, allow Gambel Oak and
Juniper to increase
• Open canopy ~ 40 ft2/ac (range 0 to
78)
5
0
25
-3
5
20
-2
0
-2
15
-1
10
5
0-
5
30
-3
0
-3
25
-2
20
-2
15
-1
10
5-
0-
5
0
0
0
5
10
10
10
5
20
10
20
40
5-
Trees per acre
30
5
Trees per acre
40
Aspen
Douglas-fir
Ponderosa
White fir
-3
Aspen
Douglas-fir
Ponderosa
White fir
50
POST-treatment Transition
60
30
PRE-treatment Transition
60
Diameter Class (inches)
Tactics
• Retain PP, AS (N slopes, swales)
• Remove all WF
• Canopy openness target of 30-40%
• Enhance current openings
• Increase shrubs for big-game winter
range
POST-treatment Resistance
Aspen
Douglas-fir
Ponderosa
White fir
30
60
40
30
5
30
-3
0
25
-3
5
-2
20
15
-2
5
0
Aspen
Douglas-fir
Ponderosa
White fir
Grouped trees
with
predominance
of openings
20
10
Diameter Class (inches)
5
30
-3
0
25
-3
5
20
-2
0
15
-2
5
-1
10
5
0
0-
•Rx burn to raise canopy height
and reduce ladder fuels (0 to 5
inch size class)
Trees per acre
ALL TREATMENTS
•Rx burn every 5-10 years
-1
Diameter Class
(inches)
POST-treatment
Transition
Diameter Class (inches)
50
10
5
0-
5
30
-3
0
25
-3
5
-2
20
-2
15
-1
10
5-
0
0
5
0
10
10
10
20
10
0-
Variable
densities
5-
20
40
10
30
Aspen
Douglas-fir
Ponderosa
White fir
50
Trees per acre
40
5
Trees per acre
50
POST-Treatment Resilience
60
5-
60
Maintain current
conditions
Promote Change
San Juan National Forest
Spectrum of Adaptive Forest
Management Treatments
Transition
Management Goal: intentionally
accommodate change and enable
ecosystems to adaptively respond
to changing conditions
Strategy: Environment dominated
by openings, retain PP and DF in
clumps, Aspen in swales and N
slopes, remove all WF
Resilience
Resistance
Management Goal: allow some
change in current conditions,
but encourage a return to
reference conditions
Strategy: variable tree cover
and openings (up to 1 ac),
increase drought-tolerant
species
Management Goal:
maintain relatively
unchanged conditions
over time
Strategy: maintain
proportional PP, DF,
WF, AS
Reduce climate change
impacts
Species:
ponderosa pine 
Douglas-fir 
white fir 
aspen in clumps
grass/shrub/oak/RMJ/Pinyon pine 
Species:
ponderosa pine 
Douglas-fir 
white fir 
aspen in clumps
Facilitate adaptive
responses
Next Steps
•
•
•
•
Stands are marked for harvest
Pre-treatment data collection
Harvests to be implemented in Fall 2018 -?
Post-treatment measurements in Summer
2019
Acknowledgements
San Juan NF – Steve Hartvigsen, Gretchen
Fitzgerald, Matt Tuten, Tim Leishman
Questions?
[email protected]
[email protected]
Fire resilient species
• Ponderosa pine
– Thick Bark, open crown, tall crown base height, large buds
– Seedlings are susceptible
• Douglas-fir
– Older trees with thick bark increase resiliency
– Short crown base height, dense foliage decrease resiliency
– Seedling and saplings are susceptible
• White fir
– Older trees with thick bark increase resiliency
– Short crown base height, dense foliage decrease resiliency
– Seedling, saplings, and poles are susceptible
SPROUTERS
Aspen
Gambel oak
Medium bark and low/medium
resistance to fire, but RESPROUTS
Thin bark and low resistance to
fire, but RESPROUTS
Modification to the MPB
Susceptibility Rating
• In 1994, Schmid and others suggested:
– High hazard stand: >120 ft2/acre
– Moderate hazard: 80 to 120 ft2/acre
– Low hazard: <80 ft2/acre
• Schmid and others (2007) now suggest:
– High hazard stand: >100 ft2/acre
– Low hazard: <80 ft2/acre
Lower density
ponderosa pine
forests are less
sensitive to drought
Relative Density
Bottero et. al. (in review)
Adaptive Silviculture for Climate Change (ASCC):
A National Network
PROJECT JUSTIFICATION
Forest managers need robust, operational examples of
how to integrate climate change adaptation into
silvicultural planning and on-the-ground actions that
can…
–Foster resilience to the impacts of climate change
–Enable adaptation to uncertain futures
Adaptive Silviculture for Climate Change (ASCC)
PNW: Dave
Peterson
OSU: Lisa Ganio
SITE 4: Coram EF
on Flathead NF
Site Leads: Elaine
Sutherland &
Terrie Jain
NRS/NIACS:
Chris Swanston
Maria Janowiak
NRS: Brian Palik
SITE 1: Cutfoot EF
on Chippewa NF
Site Lead: B Palik
Collaborators
Study Sites
SITE 5: Second College
Grant (Dartmouth) &
Hubbard Brook EF
Site Leads: Tony D’Amato
& Chris Woodall
PI: Linda Nagel, CSU
RMRS: Linda Joyce
PSW: Connie Millar
SITE 2: San Juan NF
Site Lead: Mike Battaglia
SRS: Jim Guldin (PI)
SITE 3: Jones Ecological Ctr
Site Lead: Steve Jack
3/27/16
PIs
Adaptive Silviculture for Climate Change (ASCC):
A National Network
PROJECT GOALS
Compare key variables among 4 adaptation
treatments in 5 different forest types across the
United States
• Forest growth and productivity
• Overstory and understory species composition
• Forest health and/or tree vigor
Treatments
Resistance
Resilience
Transition
No Action
Sensu Millar et al 2007