Transcript Document

Integrated
Assessment
Methods and approach
Illustrative examples
Future directions
Amy Snover, PhD
Climate Impacts Group
Center for Science in the Earth System
University of Washington
What is IA?
... an interdisciplinary process of combining,
interpreting, and communicating knowledge
from diverse scientific disciplines in such a
way that the whole cause-effect chain of a
problem can be evaluated from a synoptic
perspective with two characteristics:
(1) it should have added value compared to a
single disciplinary oriented assessment;
(2) it should provide useful information to
decision makers.
(Rotmans and Dowlatabadi 1998)
Characteristics of CIG’s IA
• vertical
• horizontal
• spatial
• temporal
• interdisciplinary • intermural
Requires research and synthesis.
Papers on approaches to integrated assessment: Snover et al.
2003; Gamble et al. 2003; Rhythms of Change – Chs. 2 & 11.
Methods: Integrated Research
1. Understand the natural system
predictability, uncertainty
2. Understand the managed system
the nature and consequences of human choices and
activities
3. Understand the institutional context of these
systems
processes, laws, constraints, decision calendars
1-3. Work with regional stakeholders
First vertical, then horizontal assessment
Vertical Integration
Climate dynamics
Impacts on natural systems
Impacts on human systems
Human response capabilities
e.g., Miles et al. 2000
Vertical Assessment
Integrated assessment of climate impacts on the Columbia River
basin Miles et al. 2000
Value of climate forecasts for Columbia basin hydropower
production Hamlet et al. 2001, Huppert et al. 2001
Implications of climate change for PNW urban water resources
Palmer and Hahn 2002
Analyses of the institutional context of regional water resources
management and potential use of climate forecasts in
management Callahan et al. 1999, Gray 1999
Transboundary Issues in the Columbia River Basin Hamlet 2003
Fisheries Management Applications Mantua and Francis 2003
Climate Change, Carbon, and Forestry Innes et al. 2004
Climate Impacts on PNW Resources Rhythms of Change, Chs. 6-9
Outreach: Sectoral Workshops
Horizontal Assessment
Streamflow
• Compare results
across sectors 
• Synthesize results
across region 
Snow
Mote et al. 1999a,b, 2003; Parson et
al. 2000; Peterson et al., in prep.;
National Assessment; Rhythms of
Change (esp. Chs. 10-11); Snover et
al. 2003
Coho
Potential Impacts of Climate Change
ENSO
PDO
Mote et al. 2003
Teaching
Graduate Education
•
ATMS 585A/ENVIR 585A/ESS 585A/SMA 585A: Climate Impacts on
the Pacific Northwest
•
SMA 501: Marine Affairs Practice (Integrated Assessment applied
to marine policy problems)
•
PBAF 595/ENVIR 500A: The Role of Science in Environmental
Decisions
•
PBAF 598H: Decision-Making in the Face of Uncertainty:
Practitioner Views on Environmental Resource Management
Challenges
•
ESC 512A: Consequences of Climate Change and Climate
Variability for PNW Forests
•
Oregon State University: Global Climate Change Science and Policy
International Workshops on Regional Integrated Climate
Impacts Assessment
•
Lucca, Italy – September 2002
•
Grainau, Germany – June/July 2004
•
Cairns, Australia – 2006
To the Future
Objective: To develop a capability to answer questions from
policymakers concerning impacts and policies at the
different time/space scales at which climate, natural
ecosystems, and human social systems interact.
Strategic Questions:
1.
What are the critical interactions among resources (and resource
management) that will shape regional impacts of climate variability and
change?
2.
What are the net impacts of climate variability on the region and what are
the likely impacts of climate change, combined with regional trends in
population growth and technological development? What are the costs of
these impacts?
3.
What are the greatest uncertainties in quantifying the effects of climate
variability and change on ecosystems and human social systems in the
region? Which uncertainties are most crucial for improving predictions and/or
resource management?
4.
How could cross-sectoral management improve adaptive capacity by
exploiting the critical interactions across sectors and resources?
Requires increasing vertical and horizontal integration.
New Directions in Horizontal
Integration
• Physical Template
• Integrated
Watershed Analysis
Response to
stakeholder demand
for watershed level
information
Top: Mt. Rainier (Marli Miller, Univ. Oregon)
Bottom: Dungeness National Wildlife Refuge (Albert Copley, OK Univ. Archives)
Physical Template
• GIS-based “picture” of the PNW
• Method of integrating
information about climate
impacts with information about
the ecological, regulatory, and
socioeconomic environments in
which they occur
• Tool for visualization, querying,
information delivery, and spatial
analysis
• Available to CSES (to support
internal integration and finescale policy analysis) and to
stakeholders (to support
planning for adaptation)
Physical Template
1. Enhance stakeholders’ familiarity with the role of
climate in managed resources
–
–
2.
Map past and future patterns of PNW hydroclimatic
conditions
Designed in consultation with regional planners & decision
makers
Provide targeted
interpretive products,
e.g.,
–
–
Highlight areas of
high/low sensitivity to
climate change
Map hydrologically
vulnerable watersheds
Integrated
Watershed
Analysis
Responding to stakeholder demand
for information applicable to realworld watershed planning issues.
Mt Baker, WA
Photo: Chris Keane American Geological Institute
Integrated Watershed Analysis
Forest Hydrology
Coastal Management
Focus on sediment
loading of streams
Effective institutions for
integrated management
Climate change
(altered water cycle)
Human activities
(resource & land use)
Climate change
Human activities
(aquaculture,
development)
Climate change
(sea level rise & ocean mixing)
Freshwater habitat
Human activities
(fishing)
(water quality, quantity
& timing)
Health & Viability
of PNW salmon
Estuarine habitat
(water quality, mixing
processes)
Ocean habitat
Estuarine Ecology
Climate impacts on
estuarine conditions
Salmon Lifecycle
Relationship between habitats and
salmon success
Outputs
• Simulation models linking climatehydrology-land/water use-forest
ecology-water quality-aquatic
ecosystems
– Explore the impacts of climate
variability, climate change, and
human activities on these linked
resources
– Identify and evaluate alternative
management responses
• Information in support of climate
sensitive decisions
• Ultimately … a “virtual NW”
simulation model that will allow
stakeholders, scientists, and decision
makers to explore the impacts of
policy choices in the face of climate
change and population growth
scenarios