Transcript Approaches - Northwest Power & Conservation Council

Interim and Long-term
Approaches for Assessing
Wind’s Contribution to
Capacity Adequacy
PNW Resource Adequacy
Technical Committee Meeting
July 8, 2008
WIAP Action 1 - Wind
Capacity Value
Phase I: By July 2007, the Northwest Resource
Adequacy Forum should reassess its 15 percent pilot
sustained wind capacity value using currently
available data on wind plant operation during periods
of peak load.
Phase II: In 2008, the NWRA Forum should further
refine the sustained peaking capacity value of wind
power using the improved wind resource data set of
Action 3 and other available data.
July 8, 2008
PNW Resource Adequacy Technical Committee Meeting
2
PHASE I: Interim Wind Capacity Value
• Council 2011 and 2013 Resource
Adequacy Assessments
– Wind Capacity Contribution to Resource
Adequacy equated to 5% installed capacity
– Placeholder value
– Supported by BPA’s wind capacity
analyses in the BPA control area
July 8, 2008
PNW Resource Adequacy Technical Committee Meeting
3
BPA Wind Capacity Analyses
0.4
Median = 7.3 %
50% of observations are below this value
50% of observations are above this value
Probability of Occurance
0.3
Mean or Average = 17.2 %
Distribution of Wind Fleet's Capacity Factors
In BPA's Control Area
Newer Technology Historical Data
Averaged over 6 Peak Hours (n = 60)
During Winter 3 Day Cold Spells
Nov, Dec and Jan from 2002 - 2008
0.2
0.1
0.0
0
5
10
15
20
July 8, 2008
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Capacity Midpoint (%)
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
• Historical record is
insufficient to calculate
statistically significant
wind capacity factor over
18 hour sustained peak
period during cold snaps
• Median capacity factor
over 6 peak hours during
cold snaps is 7.3%
• Adverse wind capacity
factor ≈ 5%
PNW Resource Adequacy Technical Committee Meeting
4
BPA Wind Capacity Analyses
0.4
Median = 4.9 %
50% of observations are below this value
50% of observations are above this value
0.3
Probability of Occurance
Mean or Average = 17.2 %
Distribution of Wind Fleet's Capacity Factors
In BPA's Control Area
Newer Technology Historical Data (n = 360)
Individual Fleet Capacity Factors from
18 Hours of Sustained Winter Peak Days
Nov, Dec and Jan from 2002 - 2008
0.2
0.1
0.0
0
5
10
15
20
July 8, 2008
25
30
35
60
55
50
45
40
Capacity Midpoint (%)
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
• Graph is for
individual hour
capacity factors
looking at 18 hours
that make up
sustained peak
period during cold
snaps
• Median capacity
factor is 4.9%
PNW Resource Adequacy Technical Committee Meeting
5
PHASE II: Long-term Plan to
develop Wind Capacity Value
• Need sufficient years of hourly wind
generation by wind site for GENESYS
to perform Monte Carlo picks
• Ideally would like backcast wind
generation simulation to ascertain
performance of wind over historical
cold snaps/heat waves
July 8, 2008
PNW Resource Adequacy Technical Committee Meeting
6
LONG-TERM OPTIONS
Synthetic Data
• Assumes recent years of
wind generation are
representative of long-term
history
• Use statistics from actual
data to create synthetic wind
data
• Advantage = this data set
can be created now
Backcast Simulation
• Need clean Anemometer
Data for several decades
– Stable location, altitude, or
way to adjust data
– On-site data preferable
• Need good Correlations
between anemometer data
and actual wind generation
– Consider wind speed,
direction, lag time
• Allows analyses of historical
cold snaps/heat waves
July 8, 2008
PNW Resource Adequacy Technical Committee Meeting
7
OPTION 1: Synthetic Data
• Investigate long-term anemometer data
to test whether recent record of actual
wind generation is typical of long-term
record
• If so, use Synthetic Data
• If not, may still need to use Synthetic
Data until credible Backcast Simulation
is complete
July 8, 2008
PNW Resource Adequacy Technical Committee Meeting
8
OPTION 2: Backcast Simulation
• Results from BorisMetrics Contract
provide starting point for more detailed
analyses
• Contract Purpose:
− Evaluate Wind Generation that would have
been available to meet peak loads during
historical cold snaps/heat waves
− Develop Backcast simulation of Hourly
Wind Generation as input to the
GENESYS Loss of Load Probability model
July 8, 2008
PNW Resource Adequacy Technical Committee Meeting
9
BorisMetrics Contract
•
•
•
•
Data acquisition:
– Historical project output for 10 Northwest projects
– Simulated output for a 40-year period for two additional sites.
– Historical hourly and ten-minute wind speeds for one additional site.
– NOAA hourly wind speeds for 1938 to the present for Pendleton.
Three resource areas were defined based on available data and need
to keep individual project data confidential:
– “West Gorge” (The Dalles - Arlington region)
– “East Gorge” (Pendleton – Dayton region)
– Non-Gorge (Simulated central Montana)
Borismetrics developed a 4th degree polynomial constrained
econometric model to backcast hourly project output as a dependent
variable of Pendleton wind speeds (E. & W. Gorge areas).
Product: Simulated hourly wind project output for the three resource
areas for 1944 through 2005.
July 8, 2008
PNW Resource Adequacy Technical Committee Meeting
10
Output (MW)
Forecast vs. Actual output –
“East Gorge” December 2005
500
450
400
Actual
Model
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2005:12:01
July 8, 2008
2005:12:08
2005:12:15
“Ramps” in forecast result (usually)
2005:12:22
2005:12:29
from missing
wind speed data.
PNW Resource Adequacy Technical Committee Meeting
11
Borismetrics Work Identified Issues
•
•
•
Most frequent capacity factor is 15% of nameplate rather than 0%, as
shown by the BPA Wind Capacity Analyses on slides 4 and 5
Was Gorge windier in the past, or is there a problem with the simulation?
Case of the missing zeros:
− "dummy" or surrogate variables to allow for generation facilities to be shut
down for maintenance or other reasons.
− Problem identified: 40% of time when wind was blowing, there was zero wind
generation.
Distribution of All Generation Data East Gorge Synthetic Data
Actual Boris Data
0.5
4.5%
4.0%
Simulated Backcast East Gorge
% Nameplate
Hourly Data From 1/44 - 1/06
0.3
0.2
Mode is Zero,
Over 4% is at zero
3.5%
3.0%
% of total
Probability of Occurance
1/
0.4
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.1
0.5%
0.0%
0.0
1
0
5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
5
9
13
17
21
25
29
33
37
41
45
49
53
57
61
65
69
73
77
81
85
89
93
97 101
% of 100
Capacity Midpoint
1/
Probability of occurrence should be divided by 10
July 8, 2008
PNW Resource Adequacy Technical Committee Meeting
12
Borismetrics Work Identified Issues
• Case of missing zeros
– Example: East Gorge Generation Dec 2006
– Why is there so little generation when the wind is blowing?
July 8, 2008
PNW Resource Adequacy Technical Committee Meeting
13
Borismetrics Work Identified Issues
• Can a unique function calculating generation based
on wind speed be determined?
July 8, 2008
PNW Resource Adequacy Technical Committee Meeting
14
Borismetrics Work Identified Issues
• Pendleton Anemometer Data not Clean
Pendleton Ave Annual Anemometer Data
Height, reading method, and meter location are noted
12
53' man
terminal bldg
Ave Annual Wind Speed (mph)
11
20' manual
terminal bldg
30' automatic
terminal bldg
37' manual
T-107 bldg
10
20' automatic
terminal bldg
9
8
7
6
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
1968
1966
1964
1962
1960
1958
1956
1954
1952
1950
1948
1946
1944
5
Year
July 8, 2008
PNW Resource Adequacy Technical Committee Meeting
15
Next Steps
• Form BPA-Council Technical Team to:
– Investigate seasonal/annual variability of wind to
determine if Synthetic Data Option is workable
– Investigate whether better Correlations are
achievable using on-site wind anemometer data
• Check whether anemometer data is clean and of
sufficient length
• If height of anemometer readings has varied; can
adjustments be made to data?
• Is there sufficient anemometer and generation data to
create credible backcast simulations?
• Is there interest by other Technical Committee
members to join Team?
July 8, 2008
PNW Resource Adequacy Technical Committee Meeting
16
July 8, 2008
PNW Resource Adequacy Technical Committee Meeting
17
Anemometer & Wind Generation Data
Existing Northwest Wind Projects Serving NW Load
PROJECT
INSTALLED
CAPACITY (MW)
200
LOCATION
STATE
Big Horn
ONLINE
8/06
Bickleton, Klickitat Co.
WA
Biglow
1/08
125
Wasco, Sherman Co.
OR
Combine Hills
Condon
Foote Creek
Goodnoe Hills
2/07
12/01
4/99
6/08
41
50
60
94
Vansycle Ridge, Umatilla Co.
Condon, Gilliam Co.
Arlington, Carbon Co.
Goodnoe Hills, Klickitat Co.
OR
OR
WY
WA
Hopkins Ridge
9/05
150
Hopkins Ridge, Garfield Co.
WA
Horseshoe Bend
Judith Gap
Klondike
4/06
12/05
1/02
9
135
99
Great Falls, Cascade Co.
Judith Gap, Wheatland Co.
Wasco, Sherman Co.
MT
MT
OR
Leaning Juniper
11/06
100
Arlington, Gilliam Co.
OR
Marengo
8/07
140
Dayton, Columbia
WA
Martinsdale
Nine Canyon
4/05
9/02
2.8
64
Martinsdale, Meagher Co.
Horse Heaven Hills, Benton
MT
WA
Rock River
Stateline
10/03
7/01
50
300
Arlington, Carbon Co.
Helix, Umatilla Co.
WY
OR/WA
Two Dot
Vansycle
4/05
10/98
0.9
25
Two Dot, Wheatland Co.
Helix, Umatilla Co.
MT
OR
White Creek
12/07
205
Roosevelt, Klickitat Co.
WA
Wild Horse
12/06
229
Whisky Dick Mountain, Kittitas Co.
WA
Wolverine Creek
12/05
65
Idaho Falls vicinity, Bingham Co.
ID
July 8, 2008
ON-SITE WIND
ANEMOMETER DATA
OSU-BPA Goodnoe
Hills (1980+)
OSU-BPA Wasco
(2005+) in vicinity
No
No (check)
No (check)
OSU-BPA Goodnoe
Hills (1980+)
PSE has supplied to
NPCC under NDA
No
No
OSU-BPA Wasco
(2005+) in vicinity
OSU-BPA Chinook
(2006+) in vicinity
No (PSE Hopkins is in
general vicinity)
No
OSU-BPA Kennewick
(1976+)
No
OSU-BPA Vansycle
(2002+) in vicinity
No
OSU-BPA Vansycle
(2002+)
OSU-BPA Goodnoe
Hills (1980+) in
general vicinity
PSE has supplied to
NPCC under NDA
No
PNW Resource Adequacy Technical Committee Meeting
18