Transcript View/Open - ScholarsArchive@OSU is Oregon State University`s

Is it all Hot Air?
Climate Change, Global Warming
& The Pacific Northwest
Climate Change Outreach Project
Presentation given in Roseburg, Oregon
May 2006
Institute for Natural Resources
Oregon State University
Purpose of this Talk
Provide relevant and reliable
science-based information
about climate change, its
causes and its impacts on
the Pacific Northwest
Source: Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington
Reliable and Relevant Information
To make up our own minds about whether or not
climate change & global warming is real…
…and if it is real, to decide whether or not it matters
to me…
…and if it does matter to me, to help decide what to
do about it as an individual, as a community, as a
State and as a nation.
Reliable Information
Unbiased source
Uses references so we can determine
• Quality
• Timeliness
Relevant Information
Relates to people’s personal or their families wealth,
health and happiness
Hierarchical from local, to regional to national to
international
Shared concern about:
• Disadvantaged people
• Charismatic wildlife and ecosystems (rainforest,
tundra, coral reefs) as indicators of ecosystem
health
The Climate Change Story Covers:
• Trends
• Causes
• Predictions
• Impacts
Trends
Global Climate Change Over the Last 100 Yrs
The earths surface has
warmed 1.1°F since 1900
Source: US National Climate Data Center 2001
Persistent changes in
global rainfall patterns
Source: IPCC 2001
Alternate Views on Trends
Antarctic sea ice has increased in
extent from 1978 to 2005
Antarctic Sea Ice Area Anomalies, 1978-2005, from NSIDC (2006)
Arctic air temperatures are no higher
now than they were in the 1930s
and 1940s
Alternate Views on Trends
Regional
Temperatures
haven’t gone up
everywhere
Source: Taylor 2006
Reconciling Differences
Differences in trends and their interpretation
can only be reconciled through debate and
synthesis within the science community
Excerpts:
PNW Climate Change Over the Last 100 Yrs
Region wide warming of about
1.1°F in 100 years
Rainfall increases in eastern
Washington & southern BC
Global Climate Change over 1000s of Yrs
Source: Alley 2004
Source: Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington
Global climate has varied over 100,000s and 10,000s of years
Change in last 100 yrs is not unusual in history of Earth’s climate
Change in last 100 yrs is dramatic compared to climate record in
last 1,000 years
Causes
Changes in Emissions and Global Temperature
Since 1750 atmospheric
CO2 has increased 34%
Source: Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington
In the last 100 years global
temperature has increased
1.1°F
Source: Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington
Are We Causing Global Warming?
Modeling of air temperature and
sea temperature shows that
observed increases in
temperature cannot be explained
by natural influences alone
Source: IPCC 2001
Only once human sourced
CO2 is added in can we
explain observed changes in
global temperature
Source: IPCC 2001
Barnett et al 2005
Global Predictions
Global Warming in the 21st Century
We do know the 21st century will be warmer
Projections of future
greenhouse gas
concentrations are
highly uncertain and
this makes precise
prediction of global
warming difficult
The projected increase
in global average
temperature by 2100,
relative to 1990, ranges
from 2.5 to 10° F
Source: IPCC 2001
Does This Extra Heat Matter?
Currents in the Earth’s
oceans and
atmosphere take heat
from the tropics to the
poles
Without this circulation
the tropics would be
much hotter and poles
much colder
Source: IPCC 2001
Heat drives this circulation. More or less heat changes global
ocean and atmospheric circulation affecting regional climates
including the Pacific Northwest
Extra Heat and Hurricanes: Is there a link?
No evidence of link between global warming and the frequency of hurricanes
Relationship between sea temperature and the intensity (15% increase wind
speed) and duration (60% increase in life time) of hurricanes since 1970
Total Power Dissipated by North Atlantic Hurricanes
Hurricanes act as giant egg beaters mixing
warm surface water with deeper cold water
Source: Emanuel 2005
Global Sea Level Rise
Models predict
varying degrees of
sea level rise
through thermal
expansion of the
oceans and
eventually melt
water
Source: IPCC 2001
Local sea level rise
will vary due to the
influence to local
factors such as
tectonic uplift and
prevailing ocean
conditions
PNW Predictions
Climate Influences on the PNW: Topography
Climate Influences on the PNW: Ocean
El Niño/ Southern Oscillation
El Nino/ Southern Oscillation
El Niño winters tend
to be warmer and
drier than average.
La Niña winters tend
to be cooler and
wetter than average
Source: Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington
Warm phase PDO
winters tend to be
warmer and drier
than average. Cool
phase PDO
winters tend to be
cooler and wetter
than average
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
21st Century Changes in PNW Temperature
Comparison of Temp Variability
All climate models project
that PNW temperatures will
increase
Source: Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington
The projected
increases exceed the
year to year variability
experienced during
the 20th century
Source: Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington
21st Century Changes in PNW Precipitation
Comparison of Precipitation Variability
Many climate models project a
slight increase in precipitation
especially during winter
months
Source: Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington
Natural year-to-year
and decade-todecade fluctuations in
precipitation are likely
to be more pronounced
than longer term trends
associated with global
warming
Source: Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington
2001 & 2005 Predictions of PNW Climate
In 2005 new & more sophisticated
global climate change models were
released
The University of Washington used
the new models to look at PNW
climate predictions
The new models show smaller
temperature increases and drier
2020 precipitation projections
The new models show greater
warming in summer than in winter
The old models showed more
winter than summer warming
Source: Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington
PNW Impacts
Scientific Consensus on Impacts on
the PNW from Global Warming
• Negative impacts on PNW water
resources including reduction in
snowpack
• Negative impacts on endangered salmon
• Impacts on east-side forests with slower
growth and more fires from warmer
summers
• Loss of some local populations of wildlife
and plants if climate shifts are faster than
ability to migrate
• Increased beach erosion and beach loss
along the Northern Oregon Coast
Source: Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington
Source: Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington
Climate Impacts: PNW Water Resources
Warmer 21st century temperatures mean:
Less winter snow
accumulation
Predicted Columbia River Flows in 2040
Higher winter
stream flows
Earlier spring
snowmelt
Earlier peak spring
stream flow
Lower summer
stream flows
Source: Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington
Water Resource Case I: Water Allocation Conflicts
Earlier peak river flows, lower
summer streamflows, and
lengthened summer low flow
will heighten competition over
water use for:
• Hydropower generation
• Instream flow protection
for endangered species
• Irrigation
• Recreation
Source: Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington
Source: Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington
Water Resource Case II: Salmon
Changes in annual patterns of stream flow will be detrimental to salmon
rearing, migration and spawning in some transient river systems
Increased water
temperatures in
summer may exceed
the tolerable limits for
trout and salmon
Endangered Species
Act implications for
power generation &
irrigation through higher
in-stream flow
standards
Water Resource Case III: Snow Pack and Skiing
Warmer winter temperatures mean later opening dates, shorter seasons
and more rainy days for ski areas below 5,000‘
Latest climate models suggest the
worst impacts could be seen later
than previously thought
At Risk Snow and Ski Areas
Source: Nolan 2006
Source: Nolan 2006
Sea Level Rise and Coastal Erosion
Source: IPCC 2001
Predicted sea level rise will increase coastal
erosion hazards along the northern Oregon
Coast
This hazard is most severe occur during El
Niño events when local sea level is higher
Fishing Rock Oregon Coast
Source: Sea Grant
Adapting to Climate Change in the PNW
• Recognize the past is not a reliable guide to the
future
• Integrate climate change considerations into
planning processes including honest appraisal of
current policies in light of climate change
• Monitor regional climate and resources for
medium and long-term change
• Expect the unexpected and plan to be adaptable
Mitigating Climate Change in the PNW
• Adopt mitigation strategies that make economic
sense as well as environmental sense:
• Green energy generation initiatives
• Fuel and energy efficiency
• Water resource conservation measures
Summary
•
Climate change is happening globally & in the PNW
•
Humans are contributing to global warming and climate change in a
measurable way
•
The quickest & greatest impact in the PNW will be on water
resources due to more rain and less snow at lower elevations
•
These water resource impacts will cause increased conflict over
water for irrigation, instream flows and electricity generation
•
IF we exercise foresight now through sound planning and use of
readily available technology, the PNW is well placed to deal with
global warming & climate change
•
Other parts of the USA, the world and its ecosystems may not be
so fortunate
Greenhouse Gas Reduction Strategies
Measures either (a) save energy costs up front, or (b) are investments
with both economic and environmental returns. They can also create
product/service sales opportunities for Oregon companies
• Energy efficiency in vehicles, buildings, equipment
• More efficient materials, packaging, land uses
• Replace fossil fuel generation with wind, solar,
biomass
• Replace gasoline/diesel with biofuels
• Increase biological sequestration (farm and forest
carbon capture storage)
Source: Governor’s Advisory Task Force on Global Warming
Global Warming Adaptation Strategies
Fundamentals of ”adaptation”: (1) Net costs with no positive returns; (2)
costs keep going up so long as greenhouse gas emissions from fossil
fuels are not arrested and reversed. There is no leveling off point.
• Storms/floods: levees, seawalls, residential/business and
infrastructure (highways) relocation, higher-capacity storm-water
overflow management facilities
• Public health: insect control, tropical disease treatments, more
efficient home/business air conditioning, more “air-quality alert” days
possible driving restrictions
• Agriculture: Shift to warm climate crops needing less summer
moisture
• Forests: Fuels reduction projects, fire-fighting, less public access,
shift to new, small-diameter tree species for forest products
• Energy: New summer electric generation needed to replace lost
summer hydro, and to meet growing a/c loads
• Recreation: Shortened ski seasons, possible restricted forest access
for hiking/hunting due to increased fire risk
Three Questions
1.
Does climate change matter? (How much
does climate change matter?)
2.
Why do you feel that way? (What is it about
climate change that you think is important?
What effects or information led you to feel that
way?)
3.
What do you think we should be doing
about climate change, if anything?
Climate Impacts
in the PNW from
Global Warming
•
We have the most
confidence about the
impact of global
warming on the
PNW’s water
resources
•
These impacts are
generally negative
and are the largest of
any of the climate
change impacts