Transcript Assessing - Northwest Power & Conservation Council

Interim and Long-term
Approaches for Assessing
Wind’s Contribution to
Capacity Adequacy
PNW Resource Adequacy
Steering Committee Meeting
July 21, 2008
WIAP Action 1 - Wind
Capacity Value
Phase I: By July 2007, the Northwest Resource
Adequacy Forum should reassess its 15 percent pilot
sustained wind capacity value using currently
available data on wind plant operation during periods
of peak load.
Phase II: In 2008, the NWRA Forum should further
refine the sustained peaking capacity value of wind
power using the improved wind resource data set of
Action 3 and other available data.
July 21, 2008
PNW Resource Adequacy Steering Committee Meeting
2
PHASE I: Interim Wind Capacity Value
• Council 2011 and 2013 Resource
Adequacy Assessments
– Wind Capacity Contribution to Resource
Adequacy equated to 5% installed capacity
– Placeholder value
– Supported by BPA’s wind capacity
analyses in the BPA control area
July 21, 2008
PNW Resource Adequacy Steering Committee Meeting
3
PHASE II: Long-term Plan to
develop Wind Capacity Value
• Need sufficient years of hourly wind
generation by wind site for GENESYS
to perform Monte Carlo picks
• Ideally would like backcast wind
generation simulation to ascertain
performance of wind over historical
cold snaps/heat waves
July 21, 2008
PNW Resource Adequacy Steering Committee Meeting
4
LONG-TERM OPTIONS
Synthetic Data
• Assumes recent years of
wind generation are
representative of long-term
history
• Use statistics from actual
data to create synthetic wind
data
• Advantage = this data set
can be created now
Backcast Simulation
• Need clean Anemometer
Data for several decades
– Stable location, altitude, or
way to adjust data
– On-site data preferable
• Need good Correlations
between anemometer data
and actual wind generation
– Consider wind speed,
direction, lag time
• Allows analyses of historical
cold snaps/heat waves
July 21, 2008
PNW Resource Adequacy Steering Committee Meeting
5
OPTION 1: Synthetic Data
• Investigate long-term anemometer data
to test whether recent record of actual
wind generation is typical of long-term
record
• If so, use Synthetic Data
• If not, may still need to use Synthetic
Data until credible Backcast Simulation
is complete
July 21, 2008
PNW Resource Adequacy Steering Committee Meeting
6
OPTION 2: Backcast Simulation
• Results from BorisMetrics Contract
provide starting point for more detailed
analyses
• BorisMetrics Contract Purpose:
− Evaluate Wind Generation that would have
been available to meet peak loads during
historical cold snaps/heat waves
− Develop Backcast simulation of Hourly
Wind Generation as input to the
GENESYS Loss of Load Probability model
July 21, 2008
PNW Resource Adequacy Steering Committee Meeting
7
Borismetrics Work Identified Issues
•
•
•
Most frequent capacity factor is 15% of nameplate rather than 0%, as
shown by the BPA Wind Capacity Analyses
Was Gorge windier in the past, or is there a problem with the simulation?
Case of the missing zeros:
− "dummy" or surrogate variables to allow for generation facilities to be shut
down for maintenance or other reasons.
− Problem identified: 40% of time when wind was blowing, there was zero wind
generation.
Distribution of All Generation Data East Gorge Synthetic Data
Actual Boris Data
0.5
4.5%
4.0%
Simulated Backcast East Gorge
% Nameplate
Hourly Data From 1/44 - 1/06
0.3
0.2
Mode is Zero,
Over 4% is at zero
3.5%
3.0%
% of total
Probability of Occurance
1/
0.4
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.1
0.5%
0.0%
0.0
1
0
5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
5
9
13
17
21
25
29
33
37
41
45
49
53
57
61
65
69
73
77
81
85
89
93
97 101
% of 100
Capacity Midpoint
1/
Probability of occurrence should be divided by 10
July 21, 2008
PNW Resource Adequacy Steering Committee Meeting
8
Borismetrics Work Identified Issues
• Case of missing zeros
– Example: East Gorge Generation Dec 2006
– Why is there so little generation when the wind is blowing?
July 21, 2008
PNW Resource Adequacy Steering Committee Meeting
9
Borismetrics Work Identified Issues
• Can a unique function calculating generation based
on wind speed be determined?
July 21, 2008
PNW Resource Adequacy Steering Committee Meeting
10
Borismetrics Work Identified Issues
• Pendleton Anemometer Data not Clean
Pendleton Ave Annual Anemometer Data
Height, reading method, and meter location are noted
12
53' man
terminal bldg
Ave Annual Wind Speed (mph)
11
20' manual
terminal bldg
30' automatic
terminal bldg
37' manual
T-107 bldg
10
20' automatic
terminal bldg
9
8
7
6
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
1968
1966
1964
1962
1960
1958
1956
1954
1952
1950
1948
1946
1944
5
Year
July 21, 2008
PNW Resource Adequacy Steering Committee Meeting
11
Next Steps
• Form Technical Wind Assessment Team to:
– Investigate seasonal/annual variability of wind to
determine if Synthetic Data Option is workable
– Investigate whether better Correlations are
achievable using on-site wind anemometer data
• Check whether anemometer data is clean and of
sufficient length
• If height of anemometer readings has varied; can
adjustments be made to data?
• Is there sufficient anemometer and generation data to
create credible backcast simulations?
July 21, 2008
PNW Resource Adequacy Steering Committee Meeting
12