Transcript idaho_epscor_cig_overview - UW Hydro | Computational

The University of Washington Climate
Impacts Group: How we (I) got to where we
are, and why it works
Dennis P. Lettenmaier
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
University of Washington
2009 Idaho EPSCOR Annual Meeting
Moscow, ID
August 31, 2009
Three defining forces in my career
1) The Federal water pollution control act of
1972
2) The era of large dam construction (and
its end)
3) The dawning of the era of (recognition of)
global change
Science 174 (4012), 1971
… while we “know” that [water quality] conditions must be
getting worse, we are hard-pressed to determine precisely the
relation between the pressures posed by society and the
responses of the river system
Reservoir construction
began to slow in the
1970s, is small now in
developed world
Visual courtesy Hiroshi Ishidaira, Yamanashi University
The Climate Impacts Group
1st of 9 U.S. Regional Integrated Sciences
and Assessment (RISA) teams
Areas of
study:
•
•
•
•
Water resources
Aquatic Ecosystems
Forests
Coasts
UW Climate Impacts Group
Objectives
• Increase regional resilience to climate variability
and change
• Produce science useful to (and used by!) the
decision making community
Major CIG Stakeholders Include…
Local/Tribal Level:
King County, Washington
City of Olympia, Washington
Puget Sound Energy
Seattle City Council
Seattle City Light
Seattle Public Utilities
Swinomish Tribe (Washington)
Tacoma Power and Light
Federal Level:
Bonneville Power Administration
National Marine Fisheries Service
National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Admin.
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
U.S. Bureau of Reclamation
U.S. Congress, PNW delegation
State Level:
Idaho Dept. of Water Resources
Oregon Dept. of Energy
State Governor’s Offices (WA, OR, ID)
WA, OR, ID State Legislatures
WA Dept. of Community, Trade & Economic
Development
Washington Dept. of Ecology
Washington Dept. of Fish and Wildlife
Washington Dept. of Health
Washington Dept. of Natural Resources
USDA, Natural Resource Conservation Service
U.S. Dept. of Energy, Pacific Northwest National
Laboratory
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
U.S. Forest Service
U.S. Geologic Survey
University of
Washington
An Interdisciplinary Research Team
•
•
•
•
•
•
Dept of Atmospheric Sciences
School of Marine Affairs
Dept of Civil and Environmental Engineering (hydrology)
School of Aquatic and Fisheries Sciences
College of Forest Resources
School of Public Health and Community Medicine
External
Collaborators
• Washington Department of Ecology (coastal zone; adaptation)
• NOAA Northwest Fisheries Science Center
• Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (hydrology)
• Consultants in Idaho (water markets, energy deregulation,
institutional analysis)
• Washington State University (agriculture)
Core Expertise
•
•
Climate
o Climate dynamics and
diagnostics
o PNW climate change scenarios
o Regional climate modeling
o Extreme events
Hydrology and water resources
o VIC/DHSVM modeling
o Scenario development
o Implications for water
management, institutions
o Hydropower production
o Optimization
•
Forests
o Modeling and projecting
changes in disturbance (fire,
pests), distribution, composition
•
Aquatic ecosystems
o Salmon
o Puget Sound food-webs and
harmful algal blooms
o California Current ecosystem
o Impacts on stream temperature
and flow
•
Adaptation
o Implications for PNW
communities and ecosystem
management
•
Outreach
Additional Strengths…
• Coasts/Estuaries
o Implications of sea level rise on coastal land uses
o Impacts of climate change on the near shore environment, Puget
Sound estuary
• Urban Stormwater Infrastructure
• Human Health
o Extreme heat
o Air quality
• Agriculture
• Dryland and irrigated agriculture
• Agricultural economics
Primary Funding Sources
• NOAA Climate Program Office, RISA program:
• NOAA Climate Dynamics and Experimental Prediction
(CDEP) program:
• University of Washington - supports staffing for
outreach and teaching
• Various grants and contracts awarded to individual
researchers
Summary of Contributions to
Climate Impacts Science
• Defining the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation)
• Identifying ENSO and PDO impacts on PNW winter climate
and key natural resources
• Identifying 20th century trends on PNW temperature,
precipitation, and snowpack
• Extending the paleo record for PNW climate, streamflow,
forests, and summer sea surface temperatures
• Defining and evaluating the potential impacts of global
climate change on PNW climate and resources
• Identifying barriers to effective use of climate information
and characteristics of adaptive institutions
Supporting WA State Climate Needs:
Decision Support
• Support for the WA
Preparation/Adaptation
Working Groups (PAWGs)
(July-Dec 2007).
o Participated in monthly
meetings
o Provided technical guidance
on climate impacts science
and adaptation
o Reviewed PAWG
recommendations
Released February 2008
Supporting WA State Climate Needs:
Decision Support (cont’d)
• Washington Climate Change
Impacts Assessment
o Funded by the WA State
Legislature under HB 1303, §404
o First comprehensive assessment
of climate change impacts on WA
o Products include final report as
well as comprehensive data sets
“An absolutely groundbreaking study….adds
urgency and specificity to the range of
impacts that we will have to be concerned
with.”
-- Jay Manning, Director, WA Dept of Ecology,
(2.11.09, Weekday, KUOW 94.9 FM)
Relationship Between the PAWGs and
HB 1303 Sectors
Supporting WA State Climate Needs:
Decision Support (cont’d)
• Columbia River Basin Water Supply
Development Program
o Funded by the State Legislature under
HB 2860
o CIG working with Dept. of Ecology to
develop a comprehensive hydrologic
database of climate change scenarios to
support long-range water planning in the
Columbia River Basin
o Database will include wide variety of
future climate change scenarios for ~300
locations
Hydrologic
Data
~300 Sites
Upper Columbia
River Basin
40+ realizations
of future
streamflow
variability at
each location
Yakima River
Basin
Kootenai River
Basin
Salmon River Basin
Mainstem
Columbia
River Basin
Willamette
River Basin
Snake River Basin
Supporting WA State Climate Needs:
Decision Support (cont’d)
• Client-based research
consultancies (e.g., climate
change impacts on municipal
water supplies), including:
o Seattle Public Utilities
o Central Puget Sound Regional
Water Supply planning group
(19 utilities, agencies, tribes,
and others)
Average Annual System Wide Snow Storage
60
50
KAF
40
Also:
o Tualatin Water Dept. (OR)
o Portland (OR) Water Bureau
30
Historic Ensemble
GCM Ensemble 2000
GCM Ensemble 2020
GCM Ensemble 2040
20
10
0
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Supporting WA State Climate Needs:
Decision Support (cont’d)
• Providing climate services to
stakeholders. For example:
o
Based on the data and results
produced through the
Washington Climate Change
Impacts Assessment, PNW
divisions of the USFS and
USFWS have asked the CIG to
provide climate information,
data, and technical support for
application of this information
in agency resource
management
Supporting WA State Climate Needs:
Decision Support (cont’d)
• Reinstituted and enhanced services provided by the Office of
the Washington State Climatologist. Services include:
o
o
o
Climate Inventory Maps
N.W. Temperature,
Precipitation, and Snow
Water Equivalent (snowpack)
Trend Analysis Mapping Tool
Mountain Snow Depth
Plotting Tool
o
o
o
o
o
Precipitation Rankings
MODIS Cloud Fraction
Maps
WA Cloud Cover Data
Streamflow Station Map
Monthly Newsletter
Supporting WA State Climate Needs:
Decision Support (cont’d)
• Peer-reviewed scientific publications, white papers, fact
sheets, and other documents on climate impacts
• Motivation for writing grew out
of October 2005 King County
climate change conference
• Written by the CIG and King
County, WA in association with
ICLEI – Local Governments for
Sustainability
• Focused on the process (not a
sector), and written for a
national audience
• More than 2,000 hard copies
and electronic copies distributed
globally
Additional Support Through…
• Seasonal to interannual
climate forecasts for use in
resource management,
including:
o Monthly climate outlook
for the PNW
o Long-lead (1 year) and
seasonal streamflow
forecasts based on
ENSO/PDO
o Long-lead (1 year) seasonal
marine survival forecasts
for Oregon coastal coho
salmon
Additional Support Through…
• Joint Washington/British Columbia coastal experts group
– part of an MOU between WA and BC on researching and adapting to
coastal impacts of climate change
• Puget Sound Partnership
– via efforts to develop GIS-based tools for visualizing climate change
impacts at very fine scale
• Skagit Basin Climate Change Consortium
– Partnering with federal and local agencies, tribes, and others in the
Skagit basin to develop a climate science consortium focused
specifically on the Skagit basin
• WSU Community Supported Agriculture Center for Sustaining
Agriculture and Natural Resources
– on their advisory committee; CIG research informs their work
Supporting WA State Climate Needs:
Outreach
• Workshops, meetings, and
conferences, including:
o Annual climate and water fall
forecast meetings
o 2004/2005 climate change and
salmon restoration meetings
o 2005 King County adaptation
conference (600+ participants)
o 2009 Washington Assessment
conference (600+ participants)
• 150+ presentations/year to wide
variety of agencies, public groups
How Have CIG’s Contributions
Helped the PNW?
• CIG research instrumental in state-level, county, and local
government efforts to begin preparing for climate change
(e.g., WA state PAWGs, OR Climate Change Research Institute, ID State
Water Plan, King County, Seattle, Olympia, Snohomish County, Port
Orford (OR))
• CIG research acknowledged by Seattle Mayor Greg Nickels as
the basis for the US Mayor’s Climate Protection Agreement,
which includes more than 800 cities.
• Public and private electric utilities now incorporating
information on climate variability and change into power
planning (e.g., BPA, Seattle City Light, Puget Sound Energy)
How Have CIG’s Contributions
Helped the PNW? (cont’d)
• Climate impacts studies have helped water supply utilities
understand and begin planning for the impacts of climate
change on water supplies (e.g., Seattle Public Utilities, Portland Water
Dept, Tualatin Water Dept , Central Puget Sound Water Supplier’s Forum)
• Federal resource management agencies now providing training
on climate impacts to staff and developing strategies for
adapting to climate change (e.g., USFS, USFWS)
• Federal resource management agencies now doing studies on
climate impacts to key resources (e.g., Bureau of Reclamation, Army
Corps of Engineers, NW Power and Conservation Council)
How Have CIG’s Contributions
Helped the PNW? (cont’d)
• Tribal governments now beginning to examine implications
of climate change on tribal resources and communities (e.g.,
Northwest Indian Fisheries Commission, Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish
Commission, Swinomish Tribe adaptation effort)
• CIG paper on development of a National Climate Service
(NCS) has had an important influence on the evolving shape
of a federal NCS
• CIG research has contributed to an overall increase in
regional understanding about the impacts of climate change
on the PNW environment and communities and the need for
adaptation planning
Why has the CIG worked?
1) Right idea at the right time
2) Strong core science
3) Organizational structure
The challenges
• Integration (making the “whole more than the
sum of the parts”)
• Establishing a career pathway for core
research staff
• The need for new blood
• Financial support/recompete