Transcript Recap and Impact on the PNW

Summary and Recap:
CSES’s Impact on the PNW
Implications for Climate Services in the
PNW
Ed Miles
CSES Review
December 3, 2004
Summary and Recap: Contributions to
Climate Impacts Science
 Defining the PDO
 Identifying ENSO and PDO impacts on PNW winter
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climate and key natural resources
Identifying 20th century trends on PNW temperature,
precipitation, and snowpack
Extending the paleorecord for PNW climate, streamflow,
forests, and summer sea surface temperatures in the
Strait of Juan de Fuca
Defining and evaluating the potential impacts of global
climate change on PNW climate and resources
Identifying barriers to effective use of climate information
and characteristics of adaptive institutions
Summary and Recap: Contributions to
Decision Support (CV)
 Seasonal climate outlook for the PNW
 Climate forecasts for use in resource management
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Long-lead (1 year) seasonal streamflow forecasts based
on ENSO/PDO
Long-lead (1 year) seasonal marine survival forecasts for
Oregon coastal coho salmon
Mid-term (6 month) municipal reservoir forecasts
Near-term (7-14 day) extreme weather risk forecasts
 Reinstitution of the Office of the Washington State
Climatologist
Summary and Recap: Contributions to
Decision Support (CC)
 Climate change temperature, snowpack, precipitation,
and streamflow scenarios
 Climate change streamflow scenarios for water supply
planning (bias-corrected, targeted locations)
 Client-based research consultancies (e.g., climate
change impacts on municipal water supplies)
 Optimization models for evaluating impacts of climate
change on streamflow management
 Technical assistance to watershed planning efforts
CSES’s Impact on the PNW
Influencing Operations and Policy
 Cultivated agency interest in information supporting
planning for climate variability and change. Evidenced
by:
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Strong attendance at meetings (e.g. fall forecast,
climate/salmon, hydrologic scenarios, climate and water
policy meetings)
Research partnerships and consultancies (e.g., municipal
water suppliers, ID Dept of Water Resources, Northwest
Power and Conservation Council, USACE, Bureau of
Reclamation)
Requests for presentations (75+/year)
Survey results demonstrating institutional learning in key
sectors
A Sea Change in Perceptions
Dramatic change in stakeholder perceptions of value and
relevance of information about climate variability and change…
1995:
Few managers saw role for climate info, recognized predictability of climate, or
possessed a conceptual framework for applying climate info
1997-98:
El Niño and concomittant media attention stimulated widespread interest in
information about climate variability and in CIG
Most stakeholders unfamiliar with potential impacts of climate change and
unprepared to use such information
2001:
Senior-level water resources managers recognize climate change as a potentially
significant threat to regional water resources; acknowledge climate change
information as critical to future planning
2001/2:
50-year drought brings intense media attention to issue and CIG’s work  public &
private pressure on State agencies to include CC impacts in long-term planning 
significant involvement of CIG in multiple efforts [see below]
2003/4:
Continued significant breakthroughs with stakeholder groups [highlighted below]
Impacts on Fisheries Science,
Management and Recovery Planning
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Information about PDO and ecosystem regime shifts percolating through
Pacific fisheries management agencies
 International Pacific Halibut Commission, International Pacific Salmon
Commission, North Pacific Fisheries Management Council, Pacific Fisheries
Management Council, AK/WA/OR Dept’s of Fish and Wildlife
Collaboration on climate and coho life cycle studies with NWFSC (Lawson)
and AFSC (Logerwell)
 4 paper series led to formal collaboration arrangement with NWFSC
 Proposed NOAA/NWFSC initiative on climate change and freshwater
ecosystems (CIG, NWFSC, U. Idaho)
 WA Dept. of Fish and Wildlife salmon management changed to recognize
climate uncertainty
Ongoing collaboration with Col. Riv. Intertribal Fish Commission
 CRITFC developed proposed alternative Col. Riv. operating plan based on
CIG’s streamflow projections
 Current PhD work on chinook salmon (Sharma)
NWFSC’s Oceans and Human Health Initiative collaboration
Pilot study of climate change and Snohomish R. salmon recovery planning
with NWFSC (Ruckelshaus, Battin, Palmer, Wiley)
Specific Examples of CSES’s Influence
on Operations and Policy…
 CSES asked to participate on WA and OR advisory
committees for West Coast Governors’ Climate
Change Initiative and write a high-level briefing
memorandum on PNW climate impacts for the
governors’ offices (July ‘04)
 COE/CSES climate change impacts study proposed for the
Green River. Larger goal = help draft national guidance for
COE incorporation of climate change into project analysis
(11/04)
 CSES asked by Skagit River System Coop. to develop a
watershed-based climate impacts assessment for Skagit
Basin (10/04)
Specific Examples: Influencing Ops and Policy
cont’d…
 Utilities roundtable from the Puget Sound region
established in fall 2004 to discuss the use of climate
information in electric utilities management. Will meet
2x/year in March and October (key decision periods).
 Northwest Power and Conservation Council adding a climate
change chapter to agency’s 5th power plan. Looking at
implications of climate change for streamflow in the power
system.
 CSES asked by the COE to prepare memo on climate change
impacts to Kootenai River flows as part of Section 7 ESA
consultation on White Sturgeon (11/04).
 Query from Senator John Kerry’s office on legislation needed
to help agencies adapt to changing streamflows as a result of
climate change (5/04).
Specific Examples: Influencing Ops and Policy
cont’d…
 Studies for Seattle Public Utilities, Portland Water Dept,
Tualatin Water Dept, ID Water Dept, Northwest Power and
Conservation Council.
 Private sector and environmental organizations demanded
that OR Water Dept include climate change in long-term
planning as a result of CIG’s work and media coverage.
 Governor Locke’s keynote address at state watershed
meeting stating that climate change is a major long-term
challenge and referencing likely impacts on the PNW
(11/19/02).
 Climate change added to North Pacific Research Board’s
Strategic Plan for physical/biological and human dimensions
research to encourage systematic study [ala CIG] in North
Pacific.
Specific Examples: Influencing Ops and Policy
cont’d…
 Key briefings and presentations…
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Invited speaker at U.K. AAAS/House Science
Committee-sponsored briefing on climate change in
D.C.; panel member at AAAS special session on
climate change (Feb 11-13, 2004)
Testimony on snowpack trends before U.S. Senate
Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation
(April 26, 2004)
1 hour presentation on climate change before special
session of the Idaho Committee on Natural Resources
(June 3, 2004)
1 hour presentation on CSES, climate change, and
decision support before Oregon House Subcommittee on
Water (August 9, 2004)
Work with the Media
 CSES has established an important
and valuable working relationship with
local and national media
 Hundreds of local and national news
stories featuring CSES research,
researchers since ‘97
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Major Seattle P-I special report
on 11/13/03
Stories in San Francisco Chronicle,
Seattle P-I, Idaho Statesman,
Albuquerque Journal, The Oregonian
 Featured in radio, television programs
(KPLU (88.5 FM), KZOK (102.5 FM),
PBS’s The NewsHour with Jim
Lehrer)
All results
to-date
based on
this model:
Institutionalizing the CSES
 Since its inception in 1995, CSES has become
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The leader in exploring the impacts of climate variability and
change on the PNW
A regionally-recognized and widely respected source for
information about climate impacts, assessment methodologies,
and potential response strategies
 This success results directly from the diverse, inter-disciplinary,
integrated, and committed research team that makes up CSES
 This success has come despite the difficulty of sustaining an
interdisciplinary group in a University environment due to:
 Low Salaries
 Lack of permanent positions
 Inability to reward non-academic pursuits
 Lack of permanent University commitment to address problems
of PNW
To the Future: Integrated Watershed Analysis
Climate change (altered
water cycle)
Human activities (resource &
land use)
Human activities
(aquaculture,
development)
Climate change (sea level rise &
ocean mixing)
Freshwater habitat
Human activities
(fishing)
(water quality, quantity &
timing)
Health & Viability of
PNW salmon
Estuarine habitat
(water quality, mixing
processes)
Ocean habitat
Responding to stakeholder demand for information
applicable to real-world watershed planning issues
Implications for the Transition to
Operational Climate Services in the PNW
 Developing the institutional capacity to provide climate services is
neither quick nor easy. Requires:
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Defining the types of climate information that are most useful for the
specified applications
Producing very specific, mutually defined products
Building trust with stakeholders over time
Developing an integrated research and outreach team for continued
innovation
 The successful delivery of climate services requires the
establishment (and maintenance over time) of a middle-man
between the providers and users of climate information
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Must have research and interpretive/outreach arms, e.g., climate
extension service
Individual agencies and industries assume operational responsibilities
only after products are developed, tested, and demonstrated
External
Stresses
Institutional
Barriers
Climate Research
Community
- Seasonal/interannual
climate forecasting
Climate
Impacts
Group
- Anthropogenic climate
change projections
- Diagnostic analysis and
interpretation
Managed Natural
Resource Systems
climate
Nature
Institutions
CLIMATE
IMPACTS
SCIENCE
humans
nature
- Resource Managers
- Policymakers
- User Communities
Adaptation &
Change
The Future…
The transition to climate services for the
PNW, and its ultimate form (University,
Govt, Private Sector), remains to be
mutually defined by NOAA and CSES.