Transcript Design Criteria for a National Climate Service: Insights

Design Criteria for a National
Climate Service:
Insights from a RISA Program
Edward L. Miles, Amy K. Snover,
and Lara Whitely Binder
Climate Impacts Group
Center for Science in the Earth System
JISAO, University of Washington
Seattle, WA 98195
www.cses.washington.edu/cig/
Outline
 Why a National Climate Service (NCS)?
 What is a NCS?
 What functions should it perform?
 What services should it provide?
 What performance metrics are to be employed?
 How should it be designed?
 The Climate Impacts Group’s experience as a
prototype of a regional NCS office
All questions answered from perspective of a RISA program of the
NOAA Climate Program Office (CPO) with 10 years experience.
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Why a National Climate Service?
Why a climate service?
 Growing awareness within research and resource management
communities that climate variability and climate change are affecting
natural and socioeconomic systems. These impacts vary from
region to region given variations in climate patterns and
natural/socioeconomic systems
 Recognized need (and demand) for spatially-relevant research
on climate and climate impacts. Demand for this information
evidenced by (and due in part to) RISA work across the U.S.
 Need for reliable and responsive technical support for the
resource management community (if we are going to get broader
use of forecasts)
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Why a National Climate Service?
Why a climate service at the national scale?
 Climate information is a public good (very important
information for public natural resource management)
 Need for a global observations network
 Need to connect:
– nationally/internationally organized climate variability and change
research communities to place-based translation and delivery of
climate information
– basic and applied research on climate and climate impacts to
operational entities
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Why a National Climate Service? (cont’d)
 Experience shows that climate forecasts alone (delta T, delta p) are
only utilized by the very technically advanced *unless* forecasts are
expressed in terms of impacts on resources
 Also important to provide information about the linkages between
climate variability and variations in natural resources
 Every empirical study has shown that climate forecasts aren’t used
to their full potential. Reasons include:
– Lack of skill (can be interpreted as lack of transparency in tracking skill
on part of forecast provider);
– Deeply embedded and widespread preference for deterministic
forecasts and discomfort with probabilistic forecasts (except in the case
of climate change projections);
– Demands for finer spatial resolution, i.e., down to watershed scale.
(see Chagnon, Chagnon, and Chagnon, 1995 ; Pulwarty and Redmond,
1997; Callahan, Miles, and Fluharty, 1999; and Rayner, Lach, and Ingram,
2004, inter alia)
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A national climate service is not a weather
service and the forecast is not “…the thing
wherewith we catch the attention of the
king”. [with apologies to Shakespeare.]
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What is a National Climate Service?
 A national climate service (NCS) integrates
– climate observations,
– research on climate dynamics and impacts,
– outreach/decision support
at a global and regional scale to produce and deliver information on
climate variability and change that is useful to decision-makers.
 Stakeholders thought of as a continuously involved constituency.
 Research should represent a balance between what stakeholders
need for managing resources and what experts see as necessary
for developing deeper understanding of the coupled
climate/resource system.
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What Functions Should a NCS Perform?
 Organize and maintain an adequate observational system
– To track climate dynamics/impacts at national/regional scales.
– Data sets produced with buy-in from stakeholders; would
facilitate co-production of knowledge in provision of services.
 Perform basic & applied research on climate dynamics and
impacts, with a focus on:
– Understanding and explaining interactions among climate,
society, and natural resources;
– Identifying important climate-related vulnerabilities, opportunities;
– Furthering the development of climate forecasts and regional
scale climate-based resource forecasts.
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What Functions…?, cont’d.
 Transition new products to NCS member agencies
– Including scenarios, climate and resource forecasts, decision
tools, planning resources.
– Products developed by regional research teams through
collaborations with research team, agencies, and other
stakeholders
 Design and maintain an operational delivery system
– Research teams transition new products to NCS agency
members (e.g., NRCS) who decide whether to deliver the
product themselves or transition it to the private sector.
 Develop and maintain a continuing dialogue among research
teams, member agencies, and stakeholders
– Focus on development, translation and delivery of information
that users can use for planning and decision-making.
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What Services Should a NCS Provide?
 Clearinghouse and technical access point
– for regionally-relevant information on climate, climate impacts,
and adaptation
 Development of systematic data bases
– with information relevant to specific regional needs.
 Education
– on climate impacts and use of climate information in decisionmaking (e.g., via meetings and workshops)
 Decision-support tools
– facilitating use of climate information in near-term operations and
long-term planning
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What Services cont’d
 User access to climate and impacts experts
– for technical assistance in use of climate information
– to inform climate forecast community of their information needs
 Researcher access to users
– to help guide research direction
 Represent regional climate needs/concerns in
regional and national policy arenas
– facilitate regional-national communication on NCS needs and
performance.
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What Performance Metrics are to be Applied?
 Degree of collaboration between:
– Regional research teams and NCS member agencies
– Regional research teams and observations component
– NCS and regional stakeholders (users) [all NCS functions]
 Relevance and quality of regional research efforts.
 Relevance and quality of decision support and decision
tools.
 Evidence of impact on regional planning and decisionmaking by user communities.
– Assessed via periodic detailed systematic investigations
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How Should a National Climate Service be
Designed?
 Basic approach: the NOAA/CPO vision of regional
components as basis for national climate service be
implemented as an inter-agency partnership authorized
and funded by U.S. Congress.
 Approach recognizes that RISAs have demonstrated proof
of concept:
– RISAs have developed the capability to understand the
relationship between climate and natural resource variability and to
make use of such information to add value to climate forecasts.
– RISAs have developed the capability to identify and evaluate
adaptation strategies in response to perceived climate-based
regional vulnerabilities is a matter of some urgency.
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Regional Climate Impacts Assessment
Climate impacts research is retrospective, contextual,
interdisciplinary & integrated.
RISA
Research
Community
climate
Resource
Mgmt.
CLIMATE
IMPACTS
SCIENCE
humans
nature
Traditional research products are often not directly applicable to management
decisions and decision-making environments. RISA strives to conduct and
integrate research to inform “real world” choices.
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NCS Design, cont’d.
 A partnership among Depts. of Commerce (NOAA = NWS, RISAs),
Agriculture (USFS, NRCS), Interior (USGS, BOR, BLM), Health and
Human Services (CDC), Defense (ACOE), Homeland Security (FEMA),
EPA, Housing and Urban Development
 Directed by Director of NOAA/Climate Program Office (CPO)
 Interagency partnership will require explicit budgetary support to facilitate
research planning and operations at the regional level. Requires an act
of Congress.
 Interagency unit provides coordination at Federal level and operational
participation at regional level.
– Interagency coordination expected over time to induce greater coordination
among state agencies.
 At regional level, all stakeholders, public and private sectors included.
 Regional working groups comprised of research teams and member
agency field offices.
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Designing a National Climate Service
National Climate Service
(Fed Level)
Interior
(USGS, BOR,
BLM)
Defense
(ACOE)
Homeland
Security
(FEMA)
HUD
NOAA/CPO
NOAA
(NWS,
RISA)
Regional Climate
Service Centers
(RCSC)
USGS, BOR,
BLM
HUD
ACOE
NWS,
RISA
RCSC
FEMA
CDC
EPA
USFS, NRCS
HHS
(CDC)
EPA
Agriculture
(USFS, NRCS)
Regional offices could be grouped by
major river basins and/or geographic
areas with enough linkages to
facilitate collaboration across subregional offices (e.g. Western States,
New England States, Plains states)
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End
Users
Local, state,
tribal, federal
resource
managers
Elected officials
Private sector
resource
managers
NGOs
Research
community
General public
The Climate Impacts Group:
Implications for a Regional Climate Service Center
1995-2005
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The Climate Impacts Group
First of 8 U.S. regional integrated
assessment teams (RISAs).
Areas of
study:
 Water resources
 Salmon
 Forests
 Coasts
 [Agriculture, Human Health]
Objectives  Increase regional resilience to climate
variability and change
 Produce science useful to (and used by!) the
decision making community; requires close
and sustained stakeholder interactions
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Key Stakeholders
Federal Level:
State/Tribal Level:
Local/Other:
 Bonneville Power
Administration
 NOAA Fisheries Service
 NOAA River Forecast
Center
 U.S. Army Corps of
Engineers
 U.S. Bureau of
Reclamation
 U.S. Congress
 USDA Natural Resource
Conservation Service
 U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency
 U.S. Fish and Wildlife
Service
 U.S. Geologic Survey
 CA, OR, ID Depts. of
Water Resources
 WA, OR, ID State
Governor’s Offices
 WA, OR, ID State
Legislatures
 WA Department of
Ecology
 WA Department of Fish
and Wildlife
 AK Department of Fish
and Game
 Columbia River InterTribal Fish Commission
 Northwest Indian
Fisheries Commission
 Central Puget Sound
Water Suppliers' Forum
 City of Tualatin, OR
 King County, WA
 WA watershed planning
units
 Portland Water Bureau
 Puget Sound Clean Air
Agency
 Seattle City Light
 Seattle Public Utilities
 BC Hydro
 National Wildlife
Federation
 Northwest Power and
Conservation Council
 PNW news media
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How Does CIG Support Adaptation to
Climate Variability and Change?
Decisionsupport tools:
Research:
Investigating
sensitivity and
vulnerability to
climate
variability and
change
Provides the
foundation for
decision
support and
outreach
activities
Designed to
facilitate use of
climate
information in
operations and
planning
Research
CIG
Decisionsupport
Outreach:
Outreach
www.cses.washington.edu/cig/
Designed to
develop (and
maintain)
ongoing
relationships
with the
stakeholder
community
Supporting Adaptation: Research
Decisionsupport tools:
Research:
Investigating
sensitivity and
vulnerability to
climate
variability and
change
Provides the
foundation for
decision
support and
outreach
activities
Designed to
facilitate use of
climate
information in
operations and
planning
Research
CIG
Decisionsupport
Outreach:
Outreach
www.cses.washington.edu/cig/
Designed to
develop (and
maintain)
ongoing
relationships
with the
stakeholder
community
CIG’s Approach to Integrated Research
First vertical assessment, then horizontal
1. Understand the physical system, including
predictability and uncertainty
2. Understand the managed system, i.e. the nature and
consequences of human choices and activities
3. Understand the institutional context of these systems,
e.g. processes, laws, constraints, decision calendars, and
customs under which human choices are made
4. Work with regional stakeholders at all stages.
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CIG Contributions to Regional Climate
Impacts Science
 Defining the PDO
 Identifying ENSO and PDO impacts on PNW winter climate and key
natural resources
 Identifying 20th century trends on PNW temperature, precipitation,
and snowpack
 Extending the paleorecord for PNW climate, streamflow, forests,
and summer sea surface temperatures in the Strait of Juan de Fuca
 Defining and evaluating the potential impacts of global climate
change on PNW climate and resources
 Identifying barriers to effective use of climate information and
characteristics of adaptive institutions
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Supporting Adaptation:
Decision Support Tools
Decisionsupport tools:
Research:
Investigating
sensitivity and
vulnerability to
climate
variability and
change
Provides the
foundation for
decision
support and
outreach
activities
Designed to
facilitate use of
climate
information in
operations and
planning
Research
CIG
Decisionsupport
Outreach:
Outreach
www.cses.washington.edu/cig/
Designed to
develop (and
maintain)
ongoing
relationships
with the
stakeholder
community
CIG Contributions to Decision Support
 Climate forecasts for use in resource management
– Long-lead (1 year) seasonal streamflow forecasts based on
ENSO/PDO
– Long-lead (1 year) seasonal marine survival forecasts for
Oregon coastal coho salmon
– Mid-term (6 month) municipal reservoir forecasts
– Near-term (7-14 day) extreme weather risk forecasts
 Climate change temperature, snowpack, precipitation,
and streamflow scenarios
 Optimization models for evaluating impacts of climate
change on streamflow management
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Recent Examples of CIG’s Influence on
Operations and Policy…





County government departments in King County, WA reviewing
policies and procedures to include preparation for climate change as a
result of October ’05 climate change conference (1/06)
Joint Corps/CIG effort to develop national guidance for the U.S. Army
Corps of Engineers on incorporating analysis of climate change impacts
into Corps projects (’05-’06)
CIG commissioned by Puget Sound Action Team (part of the WA State
Governor’s Office) to prepare a report on the projected impacts of climate
change on Puget Sound (released Oct ’05)
Northwest Power and Conservation Council incorporating climate
change streamflow scenarios into hydrologic planning tools and major
planning documents (e.g., Fifth Northwest Electric Power and Conservation
Plan) (’05)
CIG asked to participate on WA and OR advisory committees for West
Coast Governors’ Global Warming Initiative and write a high-level
briefing memorandum on PNW climate impacts for the governors’ offices
(‘04)
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Supporting Adaptation: Outreach
Decisionsupport tools:
Research:
Investigating
sensitivity and
vulnerability to
climate
variability and
change
Provides the
foundation for
decision
support and
outreach
activities
Designed to
facilitate use of
climate
information in
operations and
planning
Research
CIG
Decisionsupport
Outreach:
Outreach
www.cses.washington.edu/cig/
Designed to
develop (and
maintain)
ongoing
relationships
with the
stakeholder
community
Outreach
 Outreach activities disseminate information, build stakeholder
relationships, and allow for feedback on research needs, products,
and services. Investment in outreach should not be overlooked.
Interest in using climate information comes with increased
understanding of impacts and research.
 Promotes regional understanding of climate impacts in PNW resource
management. Activities include:
–
–
–
–
–
–
Workshops and meetings (4-5/year)
Presentations and briefings (75+/year)
One-on-one technical assistance (ex: watersheds)
Work with the local media
Web site development and maintenance
Graduate-level courses on climate impacts at UW
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Work with the Media

CSES has established an important
and valuable working relationship with
local and national media

Hundreds of local and national news
stories featuring CSES research,
researchers since ‘97
– Major Seattle P-I special report
on 11/13/03
– Stories in San Francisco
Chronicle, Seattle P-I, Idaho
Statesman, Albuquerque Journal,
The Oregonian

Featured in radio, television programs
(KPLU (88.5 FM), KZOK (102.5 FM),
PBS’s The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer)
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A Sea Change in Perceptions
Dramatic change in stakeholder perceptions of value and
relevance of information about climate variability and change…
1995:
Few managers saw role for climate info, recognized predictability of climate, or
possessed a conceptual framework for applying climate info
1997-98:
El Niño and concomittant media attention stimulated widespread interest in
information about climate variability and in CIG
Most stakeholders unfamiliar with potential impacts of climate change and
unprepared to use such information
2001:
Senior-level water resources managers recognize climate change as a potentially
significant threat to regional water resources; acknowledge climate change
information as critical to future planning
2001/2:
50-year drought brings intense media attention to issue and CIG’s work  public &
private pressure on State agencies to include CC impacts in long-term planning 
significant involvement of CIG in multiple efforts
2003 to present day:
Continued significant breakthroughs with stakeholder groups
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Implications for a
Regional Climate Service Center
 Developing the institutional capacity to provide climate
services is neither quick nor easy. Requires:
– Defining the types of climate information that are most
useful for the specified applications
– Producing very specific, mutually defined products
– Building trust with stakeholders over time
– Developing an integrated research and outreach team for
continued innovation
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Conclusions
 A NCS is essential for developing national capacity to
understand and manage climate impacts
 A NCS integrates observations, research, outreach, and
operations
 A NCS is most effectively achieved as a Federal
interagency partnership
 The regional level is most effective for integrating research
and decision support with stakeholder needs
 The RISAs have shown the way
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