Transcript No Slide Title

Overview of the
UK / European program
on I&A
Clare Goodess
Climatic Research Unit
University of East Anglia
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk
A ‘selective’ view from Norwich
MICE / PRUDENCE / STARDEX
ENSEMBLES
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/projects/mps/
MICE
Contact
Information
PRUDENCE
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provide
cluster
are supported
improved
from
high-resolution
of projects
climate
downscaling
by the
brings
models
European
climate
together
tomethodologies
explore
change
Commission
European
future
scenarios
for
changes
expertise
under
the
forconstruction
the
2071-2100
inin
Framework
extreme
the fields
for
of
events
Europe
scenarios
of
V Thematic
climate
across
using
ofmodelling,
Europe
changes
regional
Programme
inin
climate
response
regional
the
”Energy,
frequency
models.
downscaling,
to global
Environment
and
PRUDENCE
warming.
intensity
statistics,
andproject
of
Sustainable
MICE
extreme
and
project
summary
impacts
events.
Development”
summary
analysis
STARDEX
to (EESD),
explore
project
2002-2005.
future
summary
changes in extreme events in response to global warming.
LastCounter
modified:
16 August 2002
Copyright
information: the above photo montage was created in XaraX using copyright pictures from: © Collier County Florida Emergency Management and © Environment Agency.
Web Site designed and implemented by Tom Holt, © 2002
Comments and suggestions welcome: [email protected]
PRUDENCE
STARDEX
MICE
Observed changes in extremes
1958-2000 trend in frost days
Scale is days per year. Red is decreasing
Malcolm Haylock, UEA/STARDEX
1958-2000 trend in frost days
Athens
February 2004
Scale is days per year. Red is decreasing.
Malcolm Haylock, UEA/STARDEX
1958-2000 trend in hot summer (JJA) days
Scale is days per year. Red is increasing
Malcolm Haylock, UEA/STARDEX
Western Europe
1958-2000 trend
in
hot
summer
(JJA)
days
August 2003
Property damage: US$ 13 bn
Fatalities: 27,000 (14,800 in France)
Scale is days per year. Red is increasing
Malcolm Haylock, UEA/STARDEX
1958-2000 trend in
heavy summer (JJA) rain events
Scale is days per year. Blue is increasing
Malcolm Haylock, UEA/STARDEX
1958-2000 trend in
heavy summer rain events
Fatalities: > 100
Economic losses: > US$18 bn
Insured losses: > US$3 bn
Scale
is days and
per year.
Blue Europe
is increasing
Central
Eastern
August
2002
Malcolm Haylock, UEA/STARDEX
Are extremes well simulated by
climate models?
90% precipitation quantile, Autumn (SON)
OBS (79-93)
HadRM (CTR1)
HIRHAM (CTR1)
Figure provided by Christoph Frei, ETH and STARDEX/PRUDENCE
How are extremes projected to change?
JJA changes: 2071-2100 minus 1961-1990
GC
Column 1: HadAM3. Columns 2-7: six European RCMs
Top row: temperature. Bottom row: rainfall
DJF, Relative Change, Central Europe
Frequency
5-, 10-, 20-year Extremes
Mean
Intensity
90% Quantile
JJA, Relative Change, Central Europe
Frequency
5-, 10-, 20-year Extremes
Mean
Intensity
90% Quantile
RAINFALL: Summer Drought
Change in the length of the summer drought between 1961-90 and 2070-2100,
based on the HadRM3 (A2a) simulation. Over the Mediterranean region of Europe,
especially S. Italy and S. Spain, this number is predicted to increase by more than
30 days.
Are the predicted future changes
consistent with the observed
changes in extremes?
Christensen & Christensen, Nature, 2003
Change in mean JJA
rainfall from 1961-90
to 2071-2100 (%)
Change in exceedence of
99th percentile of JJA rainfall
from 1961-90 to 2071-2100
Schaer et al., Nature, 2004
Beniston, GRL, 2004
Statistical downscaling – STARDEX
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/projects/stardex/
Heavy winter rainfall and links
with North Atlantic Oscillation/SLP
NAO
-R90N PC2
4
3
2
1
0
-11955
1965
1975
1985
1995
-2
-3
CC1: Heavy rainfall (R90N)
CC1: mean sea level pressure
Malcolm Haylock, UEA/STARDEX
NW UK (averages of 15 stations)
SE UK(averages of 28 stations)
RBF - yellow, MLP – red, SDSM - green
Colin Harpham and Rob Wilby, KCL/STARDEX
RBF (single-site) - blue, RBF - yellow, GA-RBF – red, SDSM - green
Alicante
Murcia
Colin Harpham and Rob Wilby, KCL/STARDEX
STARDEX Study Regions
The ‘FIC dataset’
Germany:
10 stations
Alps: 10 stations
UK: 6 stations
Greece: 8 stations
Iberia: 16 stations
Italy: 7 stations
Draft methodological criteria for
statistical and dynamical downscaling
Method provides:
Station-scale information
Grid-box information
European-wide information
Daily time series
Seasonal indices of extremes
Temporally consistent temperature and
precipitation
Spatially consistent multi-site information
Temporally consistent multi-site information
Y/N
Comments/Notes
Method requirements :
Relatively
high/low
Comments/Notes
Computing resources
Volume of data inputs
Availability of input data
Draft performance criteria for
statistical and dynamical downscaling
Relative
High
Temperature
Indices
Seasons
Regions
Precipitation
Indices
Seasons
Regions
Overall performance:
Mean temperature
Temperature extremes
Mean precipitation
Precipitation extremes
Optimal spatial scale:
Recommended impact applications:
Performance
Medium
Good/average/poor/NA
Good/average/poor/NA
Good/average/poor/NA
Good/average/poor/NA
Confidence
Low
What are the potential impacts
of the projected changes?
MICE
Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes
Work Package 4 – impact
modelling
• 2 objectives
– To select/develop models to predict the
impact of changing extremes on activity
sectors
•
•
•
•
•
Energy use
Insurance losses
Forestry (wind throw – N Europe)
Forestry (fire – Mediterranean)
Agriculture
– Assess spatial changes in these impacts
Work Package 4 – impact
modelling
• The impact of changes in climate extremes on
Mediterranean Agriculture – GIS-based model of
fire risk, Tuscany, Italy.
• Environmental Database
–
–
–
–
–
Climate
Morphology
Land use and vegetation cover
Forest fire data
Agricultural crops
• FWI and CROPSYST
• Interpolation strategies were tested
A2a-A
4900000
B2a-A
4900000
40
40
35
35
30
4850000
95th percentile values of
the FWI for August
expressed as the
difference between future
scenarios (A2a, B2a) and
the present scenario (A).
30
4850000
25
25
20
20
4800000
4800000
15
15
10
10
5
4750000
5
4750000
0
0
4700000
4700000
600000
650000
700000
750000
600000
Altitude
A2a-A
B2a-A
0-600 m
10.6
14.2
600-1000m
17.3
17.2
>1000 m
31.7
10.7
700000
750000
B2a-A
A2a-A
4900000
650000
4900000
0.45
0.45
0.4
0.4
0.35
4850000
0.35
4850000
0.3
0.3
0.25 X 100
4800000
0.25
0.2
4800000
0.2
0.15
0.15
0.1
0.1
4750000
4750000
0.05
0.05
0
0
4700000
4700000
600000
650000
700000
750000
600000
650000
Altitude
A2a-A
B2a-A
0-600 m
23%
20%
600-1000m
30%
17%
>1000 m
7%
-3%
700000
750000
X 100
Increase in the risk of
heat stress during
flowering stages
expressed as the
difference between
future scenarios (A2a,
B2a) and the present
scenario (A)
Work Package 5
• 4 mini workshops:
– Climate Change and Winter Tourism 04.11.03,
Lucerne. 34 participants, discussions about
the uncertain future of winter tourism in the
Alps
– Poznan, impacts on flooding – 25.03.04
– Lund, impacts on forests and high latitude
ecosystems – 06.05.04
– Crete, impacts on Mediterranean beach
tourism – 05.06.04
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/projects/mps/
MICE
Contact
Information
PRUDENCE
Scroll down
for Project Summaries:
followSTARDEX
the
links above
to
Project Web Sites.
Hit
This
•PRUDENCE
•STARDEX
•MICE
Project
The
three
co-operative
uses
Web
projects
will
information
will
Sites:
provide
provide
cluster
are supported
improved
from
high-resolution
of projects
climate
downscaling
by the
brings
models
European
climate
together
tomethodologies
explore
change
Commission
European
future
scenarios
for
changes
expertise
under
the
forconstruction
the
2071-2100
inin
Framework
extreme
the fields
for
of
events
Europe
scenarios
of
V Thematic
climate
across
using
ofmodelling,
Europe
changes
regional
Programme
inin
climate
response
regional
the
”Energy,
frequency
models.
downscaling,
to global
Environment
and
PRUDENCE
warming.
intensity
statistics,
andproject
of
Sustainable
MICE
extreme
and
project
summary
impacts
events.
Development”
summary
analysis
STARDEX
to (EESD),
explore
project
2002-2005.
future
summary
changes in extreme events in response to global warming.
LastCounter
modified:
16 August 2002
Copyright
information: the above photo montage was created in XaraX using copyright pictures from: © Collier County Florida Emergency Management and © Environment Agency.
Web Site designed and implemented by Tom Holt, © 2002
Comments and suggestions welcome: [email protected]
PRUDENCE
STARDEX
MICE
ENSEMBLES
ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their
Impacts
35
00/XXXX
© Crown copyright
Hadley
Centre
ENSEMBLES

A five year project under EC Framework Programme VI

Start date 1 September? (concluding negotiations)

Funding from EC of 15 million Euros

72 partners - EU, candidate countries, Switzerland, Australia, US

Ten Research Themes
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction & Research
36
00/XXXX
© Crown copyright
Hadley
Centre
ENSEMBLES
Project Goals

Develop an ensemble prediction system based on the principal state-of-the-art high resolution,
global and regional Earth System models, validated against quality controlled, high resolution
gridded datasets for Europe, to produce for the first time, an objective probabalistic estimate of
uncertainty in future climate at the seasonal, decadal and longer timescales

Quantify and reduce uncertainty in the representation of physical, chemical, biological and humanrelated feedbacks in the Earth System

Maximise the exploitation of the results by linking the outputs to a range of applications, including
agriculture, health, food security, energy, water resources, insurance and risk management
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction & Research
37
00/XXXX
© Crown copyright
Hadley
Centre
ENSEMBLES
Scientific and Technological Objectives 1-3

Produce probabilistic predictions from seasonal to decadal & longer timescales
through the use of ensembles, and use these to explore the related impacts

Integrate additional processes in climate models to produce true Earth System
models

Develop higher resolution climate models to provide more regionally detailed
climate predictions and better information on extreme events
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction & Research
38
00/XXXX
© Crown copyright
Hadley
Centre
ENSEMBLES
Scientific and Technological Objectives 4-6

Reduce uncertainty in climate predictions through increased understanding of
climate processes and feedbacks and through evaluation and validation of models
and techniques

Increased application of climate predictions by a growing and increasingly diverse
user community

Increased availability of scientific knowledge and provision of relevant information
related to the impacts of climate change, within the scientific community, and to
stakeholders, policymakers and the public
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction & Research
39
00/XXXX
© Crown copyright
Hadley
Centre
ENSEMBLES Research Themes
RT
Name
Co-ordinators
0
Project integration, management and promotion Dave Griggs
1
Development of the Ensemble Prediction System James Murphy, Tim Palmer
2A
Production of seasonal to decadal hindcasts and
climate change scenarios (Model Engine Part 1) Guy Brasseur, Jean-François Royer
2B
Production of Regional Climate Scenarios for Impact
Clare Goodess, Daniela Jacob
Assessments (Model Engine Part 2)
3
4
Formulation of very high resolution Regional Climate
Jens Christensen,
Model Ensembles for Europe
Markku Rummukainen
Understanding the processes governing climate Julia Slingo, Herve le Treut
variability
and change, climate predictability and
the probability of extreme events
5
Independent comprehensive evaluation of the
Antonio Navarra, Albert Klein Tank
ENSEMBLES simulation-prediction system against observations/analyses
40
6
Assessments of impacts of climate change
Andy Morse, Colin Prentice
7
Scenarios and Policy Implications
Richard Tol, Roberto Roson
8
Dissemination, Education, and Training
Martin Beniston,
00/XXXX
© Crown copyright
Christos Giannakopolous
Hadley
Centre