Transcript Why is global climate changing?

Global climate change:
Scenarios and Impacts
Clare Goodess
Climatic Research Unit
University of East Anglia
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk
FOUR QUESTIONS
Is global climate changing?
Why is global climate changing?
What impact is this having in Europe?
How will climate change in the future?
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PRUDENCE
STARDEX
MICE
FOUR QUESTIONS
Is global climate changing?
Why is global climate changing?
What impact is this having in Europe?
How will climate change in the future?
Patterns of
Global Temperature Change
© Climatic Research Unit
Northern Hemisphere summer (JJA)
temperature over the last 1000 years
© Climatic Research Unit
FOUR QUESTIONS
Is global climate changing?
Why is global climate changing?
What impact is this having in Europe?
How will climate change in the future?
Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC)
• Second assessment report 1998:
– ‘the balance of evidence suggests a discernible
human influence on global climate’
• Third assessment report 2001:
– ‘there is new and stronger evidence that most of
the warming observed over the last 50 years is
attributable to human activities’
FOUR QUESTIONS
Is global climate changing?
Why is global climate changing?
What impact is this having in Europe?
How will climate change in the future?
1958-2000 trend in frost days
Scale is days per year. Red is decreasing
Malcolm Haylock, UEA/STARDEX
1958-2000 trend in frost days
Athens
February 2004
Scale is days per year. Red is decreasing.
Malcolm Haylock, UEA/STARDEX
1958-2000 trend in hot summer (JJA) days
Scale is days per year. Red is increasing
Malcolm Haylock, UEA/STARDEX
Western Europe
1958-2000 trend
in
hot
summer
(JJA)
days
August 2003
Property damage: US$ 13 bn
Fatalities: 27,000 (14,800 in France)
Scale is days per year. Red is increasing
Malcolm Haylock, UEA/STARDEX
1958-2000 trend in
heavy summer (JJA) rain events
Scale is days per year. Blue is increasing
Malcolm Haylock, UEA/STARDEX
1958-2000 trend in
heavy summer rain events
Fatalities: > 100
Economic losses: > US$18 bn
Insured losses: > US$3 bn
Scale
is days and
per year.
Blue Europe
is increasing
Central
Eastern
August
2002
Malcolm Haylock, UEA/STARDEX