Transcript Slide 1

NOTE
These slides were prepared by the Directors of the IPOs funded
by UK’s Natural Environmental Research Council and presented
on 8 October 2007 to NERC (and other UK Research Council)
staff based in Swindon Office.
The seminar aimed to explain what the international GEC
Programmes and Projects do, and the role the IPOs play. While
it was obviously aimed at NERC and UK interests, and the
examples of the sorts of science the Projects deliver were drawn
from those Projects for which NERC supports the relevant IPO,
many of the points about what IPOs do are generic and may be
of help to other IPOs.
Please contact John Ingram, GECAFS Executive Officer
([email protected]) for further information.
International Research on
Global Environmental Change
The role of the
International Project Offices (IPOs)
in delivering the
Global Environmental Change Programmes
A briefing to Swindon Office Staff
Manuel Barange, David Carlson, Howard Cattle,
Jeff Hare, John Ingram & Dave Raffaelli
(Directors of NERC-funded IPOs)
What are the major
environmental challenges?
1. Climate change
2. Loss of biodiversity
3. Over-exploitation of the natural resource base
4. Disruption to biogeochemical cycles and other aspects of
Earth system functioning
5. Potential increase in hydro-meteorological extreme events
6. Air, water and soil pollution, and effects on human health
All world-wide phenomena
=> Complex and varied international GEC science agenda
International GEC science is structured to
address these global challenges:
3 Core Projects
Joint Projects:
• Carbon
9 Core Projects
• Food
• Health
6 Core Projects
5 Core Projects
• Water
+ OSCs, IRSs,
START
NERC’s
Science Themes
1. Climate system
2. Biodiversity
3. Sustainable use of natural resources
4. Earth system science
5. Natural hazards
6. Environment, pollution and human health
7. Technologies
 Address major global environmental issues
 Offer opportunities to provide UK leadership in GEC research
 Map well to international Core/Joint Projects and agendas
CLIVAR
Climate Variability and
Predictability
1993-2013
NERC Themes
1&4
To observe, simulate and predict Earth’s climate system, with
focus on ocean-atmosphere interactions, enabling better
understanding of climate variability, predictability and change,
to the benefit of society and the environment in which we live.
• Role of the oceans in climate
• Anthropogenic climate change
• Decadal variability
• Monsoons
• ENSO and other modes of tropical variability
• Global modelling and data synthesis
Coordination of
model runs and archive for
IPCC AR4
bioSUSTAINABILITY
2003-2013
NERC Themes
2&3
To guide policy and decision making that supports the
conservation and sustainable use of global biodiversity for
human well-being.
•
Effectiveness of current measures for conservation and use of
biodiversity.
•
Social, political and economic drivers of biodiversity loss.
•
Social choice and decision making about conservation and sustainable
use of biodiversity.
bioSUSTAINABILITY
Measures of the different
expressions of biodiversity may
not necessarily track each other
over time when policy changes.
Sandwich terns (Sterna sandvicensis)
migrate to Europe in southerly and
easterly directions from breeding areas
in the UK and are, thus, vulnerable to
policies across multiple nation states.
GLOBEC
Global Ocean
Ecosystem Dynamics
1999-2010
NERC Themes
1, 2, 3 & 4
To understand the structure and functioning of
the global ocean, and its response to physical
forcing, to forecast the responses of the marine
ecosystem to global change.
•
Multiscale physical environmental processes and large-scale changes in
marine ecosystems.
•
Relationships between structure and dynamics with emphasis on
trophodynamic pathways, their variability and the role of nutrition quality
in the food web.
•
Impacts of global change on stock dynamics using models and
observation systems to develop the capability to predict future impacts.
•
Consequences of changing marine ecosystems on the Earth system.
The highs and lows of Atlantic
cod stocks responses to ocean
warming
2°C above
current levels
4°C above
current levels
Expected changes in the
abundance of the cod
stocks with temperature
increase
Green = Increase
Yellow = No change
Red = Decrease
Black =Collapse
Grey = Uncertain
Drinkwater, K.F. 2005.
The response of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) to future climate change.
ICES Journal of Marine Science 62: 1327-1337.
GECAFS
Global Environmental Change
NERC Themes
and Food Systems
3, 4 & 5
2001-2011
To determine strategies to cope with the impacts of GEC
on food systems and to assess the environmental
and socioeconomic consequences of adaptive responses
aimed at improving food security.
•
GEC impacts on food security in different regions and among different
socioeconomic groups.
•
Adapting food systems to cope with both GEC and changing demands
for food.
•
Feedbacks of different adaptation strategies on environment and food
security.
•
Improved policy-making for food systems in the context of GEC.
Scenario-based assessments
of food security outcomes
Global
Caribbean
_
Social Value
__
+
0
Decrease
Food Safety
Increase
Production
++
Distribution
Caribbean Order
From Strength
Inter-Regional
Exchange
Intra-Caribbean
Exchange
Nutritional
Value
Preference
Affordability
Caribbean
TechnoGarden
Caribbean
Adapting Mosaic
Allocation
GECAFS. 2006. Prototype Scenarios for the Caribbean. GECAFS Rpt 2.
SOLAS
Surface Ocean –
Lower Atmosphere Study
2002-2012
NERC Themes
1, 2, 4, 6 & 7
To achieve quantitative understanding of the
key biogeochemical-physical interactions
and feedbacks between the ocean and
atmosphere, and of how this coupled
system affects and is affected by climate
and environmental change.
•
Biogeochemical interactions and air-sea feedbacks.
•
Exchange processes at the air-sea interface and in the
boundary layers.
•
Air-sea flux of CO2 and other radiatively-active gases.
Iron addition
to the ocean
A SOLAS-sponsored synthesis of results from 12 purposeful open ocean iron
addition experiments concludes that there are many critical issues surrounding the
proposed practice, including the uncertainty as to the effective carbon uptake,
impacts to ocean chemistry, impacts to ecosystems, uncertainties to verification, etc.
Jickells et al, 2005: “Global iron connections between desert dust, ocean biogeochemistry, and climate, Science, 308, pp 67-71.
Boyd et al, 2007: “Mesoscale iron enrichment experiments 1993-2005: Synthesis and future directions, Science, 315, pp 612-617.
IPY
International Polar Year
Mch 2007- Mch 2009
• Large scientific programme focused on the Arctic
and the Antarctic.
• Two full annual cycles.
• Wide range of physical, biological and social
research topics.
• Unprecedented opportunity to demonstrate, follow,
and get involved with, cutting edge science in realtime.
Synergies between
Core/Joint Projects
adds further value
• GLOBEC & CLIVAR: joint workshop on Climate driving of ecosystems
• GECAFS & SOLAS: joint workshop on Eastern Pacific fisheries
• CLIVAR & SOLAS: joint experimental programme on VAMOS OceanCloud-Atmosphere-Land Study
• SOLAS & GLOBEC: joint symposium on upwelling systems
• CLIVAR leading the IPY’s “Climate of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean”
• GLOBEC regional projects are “cluster coordinators” for IPY
Coordinating Core/Joint Project research worldwide is a major
undertaking provided by “International Project Offices” (IPOs)
NERC invests in 6 IPOs in UK
Environment Department
University of York
Environmental Change Institute
University of Oxford
Plymouth Marine Laboratory
Plymouth
School of Environmental Sciences
University of East Anglia
NERC/BAS
Cambridge
National Oceanography Centre,
Southampton
NERC/University of Southampton
IPOs fulfil many functions to help advance
international science and provide UK leadership
1. IPOs lead development of
internationally-endorsed
Science Plans
• Consensus
• Strategy
• Implementation
2. IPOs organise, raise funding
for, and lead international
workshops (2006-07)
BioSUSTAINABILITY
CLIVAR
GECAFS
GLOBEC
IPY
SOLAS
3. IPOs organise major
collaborative exercises and
help distribute results
CLIVAR IPCC Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
Archive
Activity coordinated through the CLIVAR Working Group on
Coupled Modeling
IPCC climate projections are now widely available:
> 1000 users
> 550 diagnostic subprojects
> 260 new publications (as of June 2007)
> 33 terabytes of data ready for download
> 200 terabytes downloaded
Archive available for
regional projections in Europe
4. IPOs prepare and
distribute science and
policy-related products
5. IPOs organise
communications and outreach
to the research community
interactive websites &
web-based fora
newsletters &
brochures
6. IPOs help deliver objective
scientific evidence in readily
usable form to help policy-makers
and society at large understand
and respond to GEC
Global
Caribbean
Caribbean Order
From Strength
Caribbean
TechnoGarden
Caribbean
Adapting Mosaic
7. IPOs engage with key
stakeholders and create
strategic partnerships
internationally,
re: Conventions
Co-sponsored by:
• 4 fisheries Commissions
• 2 international science organisations
(ICES, PICES)
• 2 Intergovernmental bodies
(IOC, FAO)
regionally,
re: development
(cf. ESPA)
8. IPOs organise and help
deliver educational
outreach
9. IPOs help create and
support vibrant, integrated
research communities
• Enthusiastic participation by more than 60 countries
• Very broad array of science
• £600M research funding (2 years)
• 50,000 participants
• New polar infrastructure
10. IPOs organise and administer
international Scientific Steering
Committees and their activities,
and help maintain high UK profile
Chair or
Co-Chair
Members
(including
Focus Group
Leaders)
David
Raffaelli
Tim
Palmer
Diana
Liverman
Peter
Liss
University of
York
ECMWF
University of
Oxford
University of
East Anglia
Franco
Molteni
Kate
Brown
Roger
Harris
Chris
Rapley
Tim
Jickells
ECMWF
University of
East Anglia
Plymouth
Marine
Laboratory
ex BAS
University of
East Anglia
UK scientists are also prominent in Panels & Working Groups
e.g. 23 UK scientists across CLIVAR’s 14 Panels
Conclusion
IPOs help international science by:
 leading development of, and promoting, internationallyagreed agendas
 coordinating, and synthesising results from international
research teams
 publishing and disseminating results and linking stakeholders
 providing and coordinating capacity building
IPOs help NERC by:
 contributing to delivery of NERC’s strategic goal
 coordinating contributions to NERC Science Themes
 providing international leadership, promotion and branding