Transcript FROM NATURAL HAZARDS TO DISASTERS AND DISASTER

FROM NATURAL HAZARDS TO
DISASTERS AND DISASTER
RESILIENCE
A 3-Part Story That Can Take 40
Years, or More, to Live
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for
Disaster Reduction, University of
North Carolina, USA
PLANET EARTH IS
IMPACTED EVERY YEAR BY
DISASTERS CAUSED BY--EARTHQUAKES
TSUNAMIS
SEVERE WINDSTORMS
VOLCANOES
FLOODS
WILDFIRES
DISASTERS ARE THE CITY’S
DEFAULT OPTION
(PART II)
NATURAL HAZARDS ARE NOT AN
OPTION (PART I)
AND
TO BECOME DISASTER RESILIENT, OR
NOT; THAT IS THE QUESTION (PART III)
HAZARDS: NOT AN OPTION FOR CITIES
EXPOSURE AND
VULNERABILITY
HAZARDS
CITY
DISASTER
DISASTER
RESILIENCE
RISK ASSESSMENT
•NATURAL HAZARDS
•INVENTORY
•VULNERABILITY
•LOCATION
ACCEPTABLE RISK
RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
DISASTER RISK
REDUCTION
DATA BASES
AND INFORMATION
COMMUNITY
POLICY OPTIONS
HAZARDS:
GROUND SHAKING
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING
TECTONIC DEFORMATION
TSUNAMI RUN UP
AFTERSHOCKS
•PREPAREDNESS
•PROTECTION
•EMERGENCY RESPONSE
•RECOVERY
NOTABLE DISASTERS IN 2011
FLOODS IN AUSTRALIA
NEW KNOWLEDGE FOR
COMMUNITY DISASTER
RISK REDUCTION
EARTHQUAKE/TSUNAMI IN
JAPAN
WILDFIRES IN ARIZONA
AND TEXAS
CATALYSTS
FOR CHANGE
HURRICANE IRENE AND
TROPIAL STORM LEE
FLOODS : AUSTRALIA,
THAILANC
SUPER TORNADO
OUTBREAK
VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
A DISASTER OCCURS
WHEN THE CITY IS …
UN—PREPARED
UN—PROTECTED
UN—ABLE TO RESPOND EFFECTIVELY
UN (NON)--RESILIENT
DISASTERS: THE DEFAULT OPTION
FOR CITIES
ECONOMIC
LOSES
LOSS OF
FUNCTION
CITY
ENVIRONMENTAL
IMPACTS
DEATHS AND
INJURIES
THE POTENTIAL DISASTER
AGENTS OF AN
EARTHQUAKE
FAULT
RUPTURE
DAMAGE/LOSS
EARTHQUAKE
GROUND
SHAKING
DAMAGE/LOSS
TSUNAMI
DAMAGE/ LOSS
SUBSIDENCE
DAMAGE/ LOSS
FOUNDATION
FAILURE
DAMAGE/ LOSS
SOIL
AMPLIFICATION
DAMAGE/ LOSS
LIQUEFACTION
DAMAGE/ LOSS
LANDSLIDES
DAMAGE/ LOSS
AFTERSHOCKS
DAMAGE/ LOSS
SEICHE
DAMAGE/ LOSS
CAUSES OF
DAMAGE/DISASTER
INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO
HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING
SOIL AMPLIFICATION
PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT
(SOIL FAILURE AND SURFACE
FAULTING )
EARTHQUAKES
IRREGULARITIES IN MASS,
STRENGTH, AND STIFFNESS
CASE HISTORIES
FLOODING FROM TSUNAMI WAVE
RUNUP AND SEICHE
POOR DETAILING OF
STRUCTURALSYSTEM
FAILURE OF NON-STRUCTURAL
ELEMENTS
HAITI: DEATH TOLL REACHED AN
ESTIMATED 220,OOO+; FEB 2010
THE POTENTIAL DISASTER
AGENTS OF A TSUNAMI
TSUNAMI HAZARDS
(AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)
• HIGH-VELOCITY, LONG-PERIOD
WATER WAVES
• WAVE RUNUP
• FLOODING
• WAVE RETREAT
• SHORELINE EROSION
CAUSES OF
DAMAGE/DISASTER
HIGH VELOCITY IMPACT OF
INCOMING WAVES
INLAND DISTANCE OF WAVE
RUNUP
VERTICAL HEIGHT OF WAVE
RUNUP
TSUNAMIS
CASE HISTORIES
INADEQUATE RESISTANCE OF
BUILDINGS
FLOODING
NO WARNING, OR
INADEQUATE WARNING
PROXIMITY TO SOURCE OF
TSUNAMI
THE DISASTER IN JAPAN THAT
BEGAN ON MARCH 11, 2011
HAPPENED WITHIN MINUTES
• It only took seconds for the Pand S-waves and minutes for
the tsunami waves to reach
Sendai and other parts of
Japan’s coast..
THE M9.0 EARTHQUAKE….
Japan was well
prepared to
cope with the
earthquake,
and ---
THE M9.0 EARTHQUAKE….
Japan’s
buildings and
infrastructure
were protected
through codes
and standards,
but ….
THE TSUNAMI WAS
DEVASTATING
The tsunami that followed the M9.0
earthquake caused enormous
damage in Japan within minutes.
THE 7-10 M TSUNAM WAVES
The tsunami was
devastating, inundating towns, immobilizing airports
and roads, destroying buildings, and
treating everything
(e.g., people, cars)
in its path as debris.
THE POTENTIAL DISASTER
AGENTS OF A SEVERE
WINDSTORM
RISK ASSESSMENT
•SEVERE
WINDSTORMS
•INVENTORY
•VULNERABILITY
•LOCATION
ACCEPTABLE RISK
RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
SEVERE WINDSTORM
RISK REDUCTION
DATA BASES
AND INFORMATION
Storm Hazards:
Gradient Wind
Wind profile
Ocean
COMMUNITY
-Wind pressure
-Surge
-Rain
-Flood
-Waves
-Salt water
-Missiles
-Tornadoes
POLICY OPTIONS
•PREPAREDNESS
•PROTECTION
•EMERGENCY RESPONSE
•RECOVERY
• EDUCATIONAL SURGES
HAZARDS OF A SEVERE WINDSTORM
(AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)
• WIND FIELD (COUNTER CLOCKWISE
OR CLOCKWISE DIRECTION; CAT 1 (55
mph) TO CAT 5 (155 mph or greater)
• STORM SURGE
• HEAVY PRECIPITATION
• LANDSLIDES (MUDFLOWS)
• COSTAL EROSION
• TORNADOES (SOMETIMES)
CAUSES OF
DAMAGE/DISASTER
WIND AND WATER
PENETRATE BUILDING
ENVELOPE
UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM
FLYING DEBRIS PENETRATES
WINDOWS
SEVERE
WINDSTORMS
CASE HISTORIES
STORM SURGE AND HEAVY
PRECIPITATION
IRREGULARITIES IN
ELEVATION AND PLAN
POOR WORKMANSHIP
FAILURE OF NONSTRUCTURAL ELEMENTS
164 TORNADOS IN 24 HOURS
IMPACT 7 SOUTHEASTERN
STATES
EF4 and EF5 TORNADOES
OVERALL DEATH TOLL REACHES 350
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 27THURSDAY, APRIL 28, 2011
TUSCALOOSA, AL: A MILE-WIDE
STORM; APRIL 27, 2011
TUSCALOOSA, AL: 15TH STREET
DAMAGE; APRIL 27, 2011
THE DISASTER KEEPT ON BUILDING
AFTER IRENE’S EXIT
RECORD-TO-NEAR-RECORD
FLOODING IN NEW ENGLAND AND
CANADA HAPPENED AFTER IRENE
PASSED THROUGH
AUGUST 29 ---31, 2011
AUG 27: FORECAST AFTER 7:30 AM
LANDFALL IN OUTER BANKS, NC
IRENE CAUSED A $20+
BILLION DISASTER
Irene smashed power poles,
ripped transmission wires and
flooded electrical stations over
the weekend, blacked out
more than 7.4 million homes
and businesses from South
Carolina to Maine, and killed
44 people in 13 states
VERMONT: FLOODING
THE POTENTIAL DISASTER
AGENTS OF A VOLCANIC
ERUPTION
VOLCANO HAZARDS
(AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)
•
•
•
•
•
VERTICAL PLUME
ASH AND TEPHRA
LATERAL BLAST
PYROCLASTIC FLOWS
LAhARS
CAUSES OF
DAMAGE/DISASTER
PROXIMITY TO LATERAL
BLAST
IN PATH OF PYROCLASTIC
FLOWS
IN PATH OF FLYING DEBRIS
(TEPHRA)
VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
CASE HISTORIES
IN PATH OF VOLCANIC ASH
(AVIATION)
IN PATH OF LAVA AND
PYROCLASTIC FLOWS
IN PATH OF LAHARS
IGNORING WARNING TO
EVACUATE
MOUNT KARANGETANG
ERUPTS IN INDONESIA
ERUPTION OCCURS WITHIN
HOURS OF JAPAN’S M9.0
QUAKE AND TSUNAMI
DISASTER
FRIDAY, MARCH 11, 2011
MOUNT KARANGETANG
ERUPTS
The 1,784 m
(5,853 ft)
volcano, which
is one of
Indonesia’s 129
active volcanoes, is located
on Siau.
THE POTENTIAL DISASTER
AGENTS OF A FLOOD
FLOOD HAZARDS (AKA
POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)
• TOO MUCH WATER DISCHARGED
WITHIN THE DRAINAGE SYSTEM TO
BE ACCOMMODATED NORMALLY IN
THE REGIONAL WATER CYCLE
• EROSION
• SCOUR
• MUDFLOWS
CAUSES OF
DAMAGE AND
DISASTER
LOSS OF FUNCTION OF
STRUCTURES IN FLOODPLAIN
INUNDATION
INTERACTION WITH
HAZARDOUS MATERIALS
FLOODS
CASE HISTORIES
STRUCTURAL/CONTENTS
DAMAGE FROM WATER
WATER BORNE DISEASES
(HEALTH PROBLEMS)
EROSION AND MUDFLOWS
CONTAMINATION OF GROUND
WATER
ROCKHAMPTON, AUSTRSLIA BECAME
AN ISLAND:JANUARY 3, 2011
BANGKOK: OVER 370
DEAD AND LOSSES IN
EXCESS OF $6 BILLION
FROM PROLONGED
FLOODING
NOVEMBER 2011
SANDBAGGING: CHAO
PRAYA RIVER
DON MUANG AIRPORT: A
SHELTER FOR EVACUEES
THE POTENTIAL DISASTER
AGENTS OF A WILDFIRE
WILDFIRE HAZARDS
(AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)
•
•
•
•
FIRE
HOT GASES AND SMOKE
HOT SPOTS
BURNED OUT SLOPES (with
increased susceptibility to insect
infestation, erosion, and
landslides)
WILDFIRE HAZARDS
(AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)
• SUNDOWNER WINDS
• SANTA ANNA WINDS
• LOCAL CHANGES IN AIR
QUALITY
• LOCAL CHANGES IN WEATHER
CAUSES OF
DAMAGE AND
DISASTER
LIGHTNING STRIKES
MANMADE FIRES
PROXIMITY OF URBAN AREA
TO THE WILDLAND FIRE
WILDFIRES
DISASTER
LABORATORIES
WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION
(DAY/NIGHT)
DRYNESS
HIGH TEMPERATURES
LOCAL FUEL SUPPLY
SMITHVILLE, TX FIRE
Since the beginning of the
2011 wildfire season, Texas
has dealt with over 20,900
fires that have destroyed
more than 1,000 homes and
burned 3.6 million acres
(1.46 million hectares).
DISASTERS MUST NOT
BECOME THE OPTION OF
CHOICE FOR CITIES
(SEE PART II)
TO BECOME DISASTER RESILIENT, OR
NOT; THAT IS STILL THE QUESTION:
(PART III)