Transcript an integrated framework for global volcano disaster resilience

THE GLOBAL DISASTER
LABORATORY MODEL
PART 20A: AN INTEGRATED
FRAMEWORK FOR GLOBAL VOLCANO
DISASTER RESILIENCE
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for
Disaster Reduction, Vienna,
Virginia, USA
FRAMEWORK 1
A COMPREHENSIVE, INTERDISCIPLINARY DIALOGUE
ON
GLOBAL DISASTERS
AND DISASTER RESILIENCE
1. SCOPE
FROM VULNERABLE CONTINUUMS
TO
A DISASTER
TO
DISASTER RESILIENT COMMUNITIES
THROUGH IMPLEMENTATION OF
“THE BEST POLICIES AND BEST
PRACTICES” OF DISASTER RESILIENCE
A DISASTER is ----- the set of failures that occur when
the continuums of: 1) people, 2)
community (i.e., a set of habitats,
livelihoods, and social constructs),
and 3) recurring events (e.g., volcanic
eruptions, floods, ...,) intersect at a
point in space and time, when and
where the community is not ready.
THREE DYNAMIC CONTINUUMS
• PEOPLE (7+ Billion and
counting)
• COMMUNITIES
• RECURRING EVENTS
(AKA Natural Hazards, which are
proof of a DYNAMIC EARTH)
PEOPLE = INNOVATION
CARIBBEAN
BASIN
NORTH
AMERICA
SUB-SAHARA
AFRICA
EUROPE
200 NATIONS AND 7+
MEDITERRANEAN
BILLION PEOPLE
SOUTH
AMERICA
ISLAND
NATIONS
ASIA
INTERSECTION OF THESE
CONTINUUMS IS INEVITABLE
SOME INTERSECTIONS WILL
CAUSE A DISASTER,
AND SOME WON’T
THE PEOPLE CONTINUUM
• 7 + BILLION
(DISTRIBUTED
THROUGHOUT
THE WORLD)
LIKE AN INFINITE SERIES: A CONTINUUM
OF INNOVATION NEVER ENDS
LIKE A CHAIN: A CONTINUUM
HAS WEAK LINKS TO IMPROVE
FOUR UNIVERSAL WEAK-LINKS
• IGNORANCE
• APATHY
• DISCIPLINARY
BOUNDARIES
• LACK OF POLITICAL WILL
THE COMMUNITY CONTINUUM:
(SOCIAL CONSTRUCTS TO BENEFIT THE PEOPLE)
•
•
•
•
GOVERNMENT
DWELLINGS
SCHOOLS
HEALTH CARE
FACILITIES
• BUSINESSES
• INFRASTRUCTURE
• ETC
EACH COMMUNITY MUST BE
READY FOR THE INEVITABLE
INTERSECTION THAT WILL
CHALLENGE ITS
STATE-OF-RESILIENCE
THE RECURRING - EVENTS
CONTINUUM
• FLOODS
• SEVERE
WINDSTORMS
• EARTHQUAKES
• DROUGHTS
• VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
• ETC.
RECURRING VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
RECURRING EARTHQUAKES
RECURRING TROPICAL STORMS
TYPHOONS, HURRICANES, AND CYCLONES
RECURRING FLOODS
RECURRING DROUGHT
EPISODES
CURRENT KNOWLEDGE
IS DEFINED BY ANECTDOTAL,
EMPIRICAL, LINEAR, NON-LINEAR,
STATISTICAL, FUZZY,
PROBABILISTIC, . . . AND
THEORETICAL MODELS
HAVING DIVIDES, GAPS, AND
UNCERTAINTIES
FRAMEWORK 2
A COMPREHENSIVE, INTERDISCIPLINARY INTEGRATION
OF KNOWLEDGE FOR
THE END GAME OF
DISASTER RESILIENCE
ST
IN THE 21 CENTURY
POLICIES AND PRACTICES FOR
DISASTER RESILIENCE
Anticipatory Preparedness
Adoption and Implementation of Realistic
Building Codes & Standards
Timely Early Warning and Evacuation
Timely Emergency Response (including
Evacuation and Emergency Medical Services)
Cost-Effective Recovery/Reconstruction
A DISASTER
FAILURES IN POLICIES
•FLOODS
•SEVERE WIND
STORMS
•EARTHQUAKES
…ETC
CAUSES
FAILURES IN PRACTICES
YOUR
COMMUNITY
COUNTER MEASURES
DATA BASES
AND INFORMATION
DISASTER RESILIENCE
HAZARDS:
GROUND SHAKING
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING
TECTONIC DEFORMATION
TSUNAMI RUN UP
AFTERSHOCKS
• BEST
POLICIES
•BEST PRACTICES
THE END GAME CHALLENGE
BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES
INNIVATIVE ACTIONS: CREATE, ADJUST,
AND REALIGN PROGRAMS, PARTNERS AND
PEOPLE UNTIL YOU HAVE CREATED THE
PARA-DIGM SHIFTS THAT ARE NEEDED
FOR MOVING TOWARDS DISASTER
RESILIENCE
BEST POLICIES AND BEST
PRACTICES
WILL IDENTIFY/CLOSE
KNOWLEDGE DIVIDES AND GAPS,
AND
IDENTIFY/FIX WEAK LINKS IN THE
PEOPLE/COMMUNITY
CONTINUUMS
BEST POLICIES AND BEST
PRACTICES WILL
CALL FOR INNOVATIVE
USE OF TECHNOLOGY
AND STRATEGIC
PLANNING
THE STATE-OF-RESILIENCE WILL
INCREASE EXPONEBTIALLY AS --a) The CAPACITY of the PEOPLE is
increased, b) Physical and
organizational VULNERABILITIES in
the COMMUNITY are eliminated, and
c) Each people-community-hazard
INTERSECTION is met successfully.
VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
INNOVATIVE PREPAREDNESS
USE GLOBAL VOLCANIC
ERUPTION DISASTER
LABORATORIES AS A BASIS FOR
PREPARING FROM “A”
(Emergency Response) TO “Z”
(Recovery and Reconstruction)
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES
FOR VOLCANO DISASTER
RESILIENCE
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR
VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE
• FORECASTS OF
ERUPTIONS
• MONITORING
TECHNOLOGIES (E.G.,
DEFORMATION,
SEISMICITY, GAS
EMISSIONS, REMOTE
SENSING, WINDS)
• WARNING SYSTEMS
• DATABASES FOR
EACH VOLCANO
• COMPUTER MODELS
OF VOLCANOES
• MAPS
• DISASTER
SCENARIOS
• HAZARD
ASSESSMENT
• RISK ASSESSMENT
MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES
.
DISASTER RESILIENCE
STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES
DISASTER RESILIENCE
STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES
• PURPOSE
• PROTECTION
• CONTROL
• AVIATION SAFETY
• TECHNIQUE
• DESIGN ROOFS
FOR WET ASH
• LAVA AND/OR
LAHAR DIVERSION
CHANNELS
• MODELS OF ASH
DISTRIBUTION
PROTECTION: DESIGN ROOFS
FOR WET ASH
• A LOAD OF WET
ASH ON A ROOF IS
TEN TIMES
HEAVIER THAN A
LOAD OF WET
SNOW.
AVIATION SAFETY:MODELS
TO AVOID VOLCANIC ASH
• JET AIRCRAFT
ARE SUSCEPTIBLE
TO ENGINE
FAILURE AND FREE
FALL WHEN
FLYING THROUGH
AN ASH CLOUD.
LAVA DIVERSION
CHANNELS: CONTROL
• LAVA FLOWS CAN
NOT BE PREVENTED FROM
OCCURRING, BUT
THEY CAN BE
DIVERTED AWAY
FROM URBAN
CENTERS INTO THE
OCEAN
DISASTER RESILIENCE
STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES
• PURPOSE
• COMPUTER
MODELS OF A
SPECIFIC VOLCANO, OR A
SPECIFIC HAZARD
(E.G., ASH
DISTRIBUTION)
• TECHNIQUE
• REAL TIME
MONITORING
• ERUPTION
HISTORY OF A
VOLCANO
EXAMPLE: COMPUTER MODELS OF
SELECTED ACTIVE VOLCANOES
• PRECURSORS TO
EXPECT
• LIKELY
EXPLOSIVENESS
• LIKELY SPATIAL
AND TEMPORAL
DISTRIBUTION OF
PHYSICAL EFFECTS
COMPUTER MODELS: MOUNT
RAINIER: LAHAR SIMULATION
LAHAR DIVERSION
CHANNELS: CONTROL
• LAHARS CAN NOT
BE PREVENTED
FROM OCCURRING, BUT THEY
CAN BE DIVERTED
AWAY FROM
URBAN CENTERS.
DISASTER RESILIENCE
STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES
• PURPOSE
• URBAN PLANNING
• EVACUATION
• TECHNIQUE
• MAPS: LAVA
AND/OR LAHAR
FLOW PATHS
• COMMUNITY
EVACUATION
PLAN
EXAMPLE: MOUNT MERAPI
EVACUATION PLAN
• 11,000 from
three districts
were evacuated
to schools and
other
designated
emergency
shelters.
MANY CHOSE TO EVACUATE
• Many citizens
chose to
evacuate, as
was ordered.
• Many villagers
remembered the
1994 disaster
and did not want
to repeat it.
MANY CHOOSE NOT TO
EVACUATE
• Many citizens
chose not to
evacuate because
shelters are boring
and they needed
to provide for
livestock and tend
crops.